Dee Illuminati

Job report, bailout, and stimulus

2009-07-02T17:59:00.000-07:00

In October of 2008 I stated that I didn't think that the spending would create jobs in the real economy.

When the shovel ready projects seemed to be road construction dollars and grants to the states to offset real estate shortfalls the question has become, where are the jobs? And nobody takes for granted their job is secure.

I really think that it was unrealistic to expect jobs to accrue from stimulus spending unless that spending is targeted outside of existing channels of the economy.

Specifically I believe that you can stimulate an economy by say creating more ship building jobs of a type that have not been built as an example a corvette that is not currently being built by an existing company in an existing shipyard, the spending creates new jobs and interjects competition into the industry in smaller yards or new locations. These would be new jobs.

or..

Investment in green energy creation where actual mega watts are produced, ergo.. the availability of electricty would lower costs in markets where you could target say an area.. Detroit are and bring on allot of wind and lower the costs in that market.. where lower energy costs could be parlayed into a manufacturing advantage and create new jobs.

But the real issue is this Where's my bubble dude?

In short I'm not surprised that the stimulus did not do anything more than prevent systemic default and a break the buck run on money markets. That said I still supported it. I was critical of France of Germany for not doing more in their stimulus and the results?

OECD Cuts 2009 German GDP Forecast, Warns On Jobless Rise

The point is this, that exporting labor to low cost economies is a pump and dump policy in economics at the macro level, candidly unless there is not an increase in cosumer purchasing in China or other labor intensive nations, then there will be no recovery for quite some time.

The Bubble is not returning and the retreat on interest rates this last week has not convinced me that inflation is a certainty and that another leg down in the larger economy is not possible (if not probable.)

But uless there is "new job creation" attempting to stimulate the old economy will not prove fruitful unless the goal is to inject enough liquidity for settlement in a deflationar cycle.

As a new job creation effort I think to a satement by an individual who held up his cellphone and stated: When I first bought my wife one of these it cost a thousand dollars, was the size of brick, had limited coverage, and the pundits said the public didn't want them. He then suggested that solar energy needed the same innovation.. I agree *see woolsey previous blog

As a new job creation I think of a company doing market research and determining that nobody wants a personal computer. Honeywell releases the H316 "Kitchen Computer", the first home computer, priced at US$10,600 in the Neiman Marcus catalog. Xerox announces that it will create a computer laboratory to research digital technology. (The resulting laboratory, PARC, will develop many personal computer technologies, but fail to bring them to market.) and of course... BILL GATES makes a fortune... Bill Gates's dream: A computer in every home

I happen to agree with a pretty intelligent guy who unequivocally states: Unless we can get solar on every home, make the technology ubiquitous, the markets we have known in the past are unlikely to occur again.

Dirty fact.. the stimulus money went to states to meet the tax shortfalls from falling real estate taxes and the capital gains from an asset bubble on Wallstreet, both these bubbles.. created the illusion of wealth and via poor regulation created the scenario we have today.

There is few real options to create "new jobs."

I suggest setting aside some money for a reward/prize in an innovation contest connected with solar.. or if that fails.. start some small ship building cuz we are chock full of real estate currently...

The Supreme Leader is a supreme Taco

2009-06-19T04:55:00.000-07:00

In order not to undermine a religion it is best to have a seperation of Church and State. The Supreme Leader is a good example of this. The Supreme Leader is now a supreme Taco. He has become very worldly..... the quote from Koresh is appropo, both became "very worldly." Nothing better for a religious leader to do than stand contrary to facts.

I tried as hard as I could but the Iranian demonstrators didn't listen

2009-06-18T16:31:00.000-07:00

Some of the best reporting I have seen on the topic is done by http://opensourcegeopolitics.blogspot.com/. While I'm a agnostic of histoorical interpretation I typically want to point out aside from primary sources and texts it is hard to generalize about Iran now. I almost balk at the comparrison with the Endlish Civil War due to a close examination of the reasoning behind the contemporary writtings.

Russell was a prominent historian on the origins of the English Civil War. His major works include Crisis of Parliaments: English history 1509-1660 (1971), Origins of the English Civil War (edited, 1973), Parliaments and English politics, 1621-1629 (1979), Unrevolutionary England, 1603-1642 (1990), and Fall of the British monarchies, 1637-1642 (1991). His work on early Stuart Parliaments was profoundly influenced by the work of Alan Everitt, who had argued that the English gentry were preoccupied with defending their positions in the localities rather than responding to the demands of the Crown. This no longer seems entirely plausible in the light of the work done by Richard Cust, Peter Lake and Christopher Thompson. Russell argued that the English civil war was much less a result of long term constitutional conflicts than had previously been thought, and that its origins are to be sought rather in the years immediately preceding the outbreak of war in 1642 and in the context of the problems of the multiple kingdoms of the British Isles, a hypothesis for which he was indebted to the pioneering study of H.G.Koenigsberger. This area is still being explored by historians like John Adamson and David Scott even if their detailed conclusions vary from those reached by Russell.

wiki

The point is this, most of the people during the English Civil war were ILLITERATE! They did not have a notion of the Parliament rules or structures, giving ordinary Americans a game show question on the US government or geometry demonstrates the awareness if you will the difference between the educated political animal ascribing events and that of the members of the crowd.

It would be conveneint to say that the slogan "remember the alamo" or that George Wahington tossed a dollar over the potomac were pivotal moments in US history, they were not!

Not only has Iran done a poor job of responding to the crisis by blaming the US for it.. a hallmark of the belief that Al Gore invented the internet, or the myoptic view that only governments get stuff done.. but the US press has been poor in explaining what is happening in Iran.

That is why good sources and sound reasoning are valuable.

Now I think Fruede ascribes much more intelligensia to the crowd (mod) than is warranted.. I think there is a sense of change in the air.. a unexplainable "Zeitgeist" that westerners don't get.

I mean looking back to 2003 and the US push to war, I see people at USNI arguing over the cause/reasoning of the war and that was only five years ago..

There is no reasoning in the crowd of parliamentary issues.. it is a "Zeitgeist" of change where the institutions of the Iranian government either stand up to the people expectations of respnsiveness or they do not.

I see no winner unless there is a secondary election, where the votes are all really counted, where the "Zeitgeist" is that there was a fair election, else the institutions of governmet take a credibility hit.. that simple.

There is a "Zeitgeist" that the US cannot influence, that the Iranian institutions cannot influence, that only a fair election can settle.

I guess what gets me is that Persians are not Arabs.. and there has been many statements that Arabs can't do democracy... are incapable of it.

Seems to me Persians have a deeply rooted sense of democracy, and the "Zeitgeist" is that that the democracy has been ignored.

Laughably there has been more demonstrations in Iran that in the US between Gore AND Bush..

So really the US media has had this wrong..

Nobody in Iran tuning into CNN or FOX to get the message to dress in black, wear green, or march in silence...

The "Zeitgeist" just demanded it.

Finally at 7:50 6/18 the US press states the patently obvious:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i2nLN4ZQox1u86JhXYpCrPFQsK2QD98TCSG80

Neither countries press much to brag about, no wonder fish wrapper sales are down

Allegations of US meddling in the Iranian election

2009-06-18T04:32:00.001-07:00

The allegations of US meddling in Iranian elections are the best proof yet that the Iranian government is unconnected to the crowds. It is the best proof yet that the demonstrations have at the core real grievances, a government unconnected with reality and the people.

The assertion that hundreds of thousands of people inside Iran are acting as a consequence of US "meddling" or influence seems to dismiss facts in a manner where it underscores the complete lack of accountability by that government to the people, as if the government could make an assertionn completely unconnected with the facts, and that was a satisfactory response.

Not only is the assertion laughable in the US and western society, ridiculed in the press, and certainly a feat that is not tactically possible by the US or even Iran for that fact.. it is also laughable in Iran itself.

The allegtion itself is the best indicator to date that the government is no longer responsive. I think that the demonstrations will prevail and a real change is at hand, if not immediately then soon, as responses such as blaming the US for a lack of responsiveness and reform internally is the last desperate act of denial of change at hand.

How unconnected is the Iranian leadership? When hundreds of thousand Iranians protest, they blame the outsider... they are incapable of an honest dialouge internally to address the issues of change. That inability to change is the definition of their numbered days.

Here is my attempt to meddle in Iran, hey.. please all protesters march in Iran with a loaf of bread on your head... lets see if these people march en masse per my request or if they march on their own?

The Iranian government is unconnected to reality.

The ignoring of facts does not of course change them.

Here are the facts, the US is incapable of doing what the Iranian government states, and the reasons of the protests are not being acknowledged, but instead ignored.

So get the popcorn, ignoring people is the best way to motivate them, they will drive the point home if you fail to hear it.

The protests will become increasingly larger.

Snatch and Dash! Stolen election in Iran

2009-06-14T10:01:00.000-07:00

In this full video of a denial of the crime by the looter and thug Ahmedinejad he asserts to have stolen at least 63.4 per cent of the vote! But notice the truth semantics, notice the head movement left-to-right repeatedly, the neck muscles tense, and the structure of the statements.

He stole the election fair and legal.... so of course he must shut down the internet..

Looking Forward

2009-06-13T08:08:00.000-07:00

Putting aside the Hermit Kingdom's oddities, we are now faced with an aging dictator who has to at the end of life admidt invalidated life ideals or act in a manner unexplainable by many.

I'm not sure if this is a calculation on the Hermit's part that China will not enforce any measures, or a design of the Hermit to increase aid when Taiwan and Japan reinitiate shelved tehcnology to create their own arsenals

The dead enders act this way..

Looking back

2009-06-10T17:08:00.000-07:00

I had to take a look back to see what Von Brunn had to say.

http://web.archive.org/web/*sa_/http://www.holywesternempire.org/

I guess the meds were needed when he tried to perform a citizen arrest of the federal reserve. And I guess I wondered about the narcissism expressed with a failed life?

narcissism

A person that is only concerned with their wants and needs and is a me me me person. They will do whatever is necessary, lie, cheat, steal, kill, to achieve their goals for their own personal elevation and satisfaction. In other words, they do whatever is necessary to get what they want and will walk over or destroy anyone to achieve this purpose. They are without conscience.

I wonder if the Narcissistic personality disorder of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il will evoke a similar act? Failed ideas or political theory, old age, and narcissim.

I held off on Kim Jong-il and the topic awaiting progress in a rational approach to this situation. To see that Russia and China got serious about the circumstance underlies their ability to see the world rationally.

But what of the narcissistic personality disorder? Ignore it? When it gets politcal it is like the Jim Jones' Jonestown operation. I'll make a prediction, not on an election but another political event.. Kim Jong-il drags North Korea into the deep end of the Koolaid and the fallout will be on the entire region.

That religous mind set, political intolerance, really.. truly the narcissistic personality disorder will result in millions of North Koreans dying from a nuclear response.

And look at the facts.. you have to take these people at their word, and we don't because we confuse our empathy and humanity with their ability to discern and make judgements and decisions when that capability is absent.

At an old age these types are dangerous and the narcissistic personality disorder fatal.

While the Sr. members of the security council could make a rare concensus on security, I nonetheless feel that they under estimate the circumstances. And that is the real fatal mistake.

Yep.. meds were needed when he tried to perform a citizen arrest of the federal reserve. What does it take to get the attention these people crave?

A recurring theme

2009-06-02T05:01:00.000-07:00

The economic downturn is making the world less safe.

http://www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi/news/134/3rd-annual-global-peace-index-points-to-economic-crisis-as-main-cause-of-decline-in-peacefulness/

An Estimated US$4.8 Trillion Could be Added to Global Economy if World Became More Peaceful

New Zealand World's Most Peaceful Country, United States Climbs Six Spots to 83rd Place

Bosnia & Herzegovina Most Improved; Moves Up 23 Places

Madagascar Sees Biggest Fall; Drops 30 Spots

I recall Jeff Stein poo pooing the DNI Global Trends reports that performed analysis on this topic, then he poo poo's a lack of a strategy or focus of US intel. I think that an emphasis on economics and the social impacts of economics will dominate the future.

I have wondered what metric could be wrapped around the issue of the economy and violence and have come to the conclusion that the nominal cost of energy is reflected through the social prism. What I find curious is a lack of a sense of urgency to create a transformational electric grid infratsucture that would provide national security, provide a framework for growth, and promote peace. As I consider the political will of the handling of GM where loans were made to 'prevent' bankruptcy where that result was baked-into the numbers, I see the cost of inaction of creating a national electrical grid delayed much more expensive.

The lack of this grid will produce a compound interest in a misery index. If GM can launch VOLT would we be able to support it?

The obvious is always the most difficult. Never underestimate the human capacity to see the truth, and yet again the ability to ignore it.

GM is bankrupt; I'm shocked... National energy grid delayed...

A civil responsible and serious discussion on energy.

2009-05-29T18:37:00.000-07:00

Christine Todd Whitman, James Woolsey, John Podesta and Karen Harbert recently debated energy policy and focused on the pros and cons of nuclear energy at the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

I was channel flipping and caught this debate. I think a search of dee illuminati would find that I have always been appreciative of James Woolsey and Christine Whitman. What impressed me was that the two sides were essentially advocating the same goals.

I guess what was really different about the discussion is that it is so unlike what we consume on TV as news or what is politicized. Consider when Ann Coulter degenerates into her tourette syndrome attacks, where when she leaps off subject and just makes a statement that leaves you wondering if that crazed look in her eyes is an act? You appreciate a rational republican position, you like and trust Christine Todd Whitman. On energy, Woolsey doesnt need an introduction and mentioned "Peak Oil."

The irony of course is that there was oncensus on so many points when psychotic politicians are absent.

Worth catching and the link has a stream and download.

And the winner of the debate?? The audience, they were treated as adults instead of being fed WWF wrestling.

It is a damn shame these two don't run together for office

My Daddy blah blah is afraid of prosecution

2009-05-25T06:40:00.000-07:00

This is why nepotism and torture doesn't work. I picked up both speeches on Thursday from C-span. I believe that the POTUS has handled the issue about as well as could be handled and that the reservations about a "lack of a plan" are a political red herring.

I will await the next election and attempt to ask as many Republicans as possible to support or repudiate the former VP's assertions about torture.

This clip pretty much sums up my previous posts.. nepotism and war crimes. Not pretty is it?

Obama auto emmisions and efficiency controls

2009-05-19T17:40:00.000-07:00

"The status quo is no longer acceptable," Obama said in an announcement that will pressure carmakers to transform and modernize the industry to produce more efficient vehicles. Barack Obama

Indeed the status quo is no longer applicable.

Plateau theory drives Total to oil sands

As I read the news I follow the news that matters, the policy that matters, and the facts behind modern economics. I follow oil in all it's permutations.

I liked the title: America’s Energy Future: The National Security Risks of Business as Usual

I feel a sense of urgency on this issue, and if the American people are called to responsible action will respond. The segment "A Direct Appeal" in the report must be made.

I feel that the auto emmisions standard was the beginning of this appeal and that this is the right direction.

This lifelong Republican calls that "change we can believe in."

I'm optomistic that after we perform allot of floundering about and allot of unnecessary pain as a culture western society will make the required changes... I just want to see those changes made as quickly and smootly as possible.

Our consumption habits and lifestyles must change pretty rapidly, it is as if this generation might be looked back upon as the 'greatest generation' not for what we asked of others, but what we offered of ourseleves.

This legislation should have passed years ago, it is a good day.

Summing up the issue? Or prelude to an investigation?

2009-05-18T04:40:00.000-07:00

There has been many books written after the congressional hearings into the "intel failure" that lead to the Iraq war. I see a trend; no matter what the fact: CIA is the dumping spot of the politicians. There is one thing to be learned here beyond the allegations and that is that intelligence is not a craft, science, or a programme but instead an art of politics.

I think the "facts be damned" and that it is the general rule that you stick your finger in the air, get a sense of which way the wind is blowing, and then create a product that reflects that concensus.

I often posted about the book by Hoffer the The True Believer. In that book there is a segment about the "after effects" of mass movements. In essence the identifying trend of a mass movement is that it is repudiated and the organizers of the movement "consumed" to use Hoffers words by the movement.

Why is that important? It is that society has a genetic drive to make sense of these events. And in history we do so. This whole issue is like a live-time unfolding Hoffer mass movement. And the fallout is still unknown.

It is a opportunity for education if one has the capacity to view it objectively.

"Ultimately, it is up to Congress to evaluate all the evidence and reach its own conclusions about what happened,"

2009-05-17T08:25:00.000-07:00

Quote: Leon Panetta

I posted on this topic previously, this issue is not going away.

Wilkerson "has made a cottage industry of fantasies about the vice president," she said on ABC's "This Week."

I think that Liz is responding to the assertions:

[E]ven when the interrogation team had reported to Cheney’s office that their detainee “was compliant” (meaning the team recommended no more torture), the VP’s office ordered them to continue the enhanced methods. The detainee had not revealed any al-Qa’ida-Baghdad contacts yet. This ceased only after Ibn al-Shaykh al-Libi, under waterboarding in Egypt, “revealed” such contacts. Of course later we learned that al-Libi revealed these contacts only to get the torture to stop.

And the story:

THE ISLAMIST terrorist who was the key source of the false intelligence used to trigger the US and UK 2003 military invasion of Iraq has been found dead in a Libyan prison cell.

Ibn al-Sheikh al-Libi allegedly commited suicide by hanging in the prison where he was being held in the Libyan capital, Tripoli. His death followed a visit by a team from Human Rights Watch, one of the world's leading independent organisations dedicated to defending and protecting human rights.

The al-Libi affair opens a window on an extraordinarily close espionage link that existed between the government of the former US president, George Bush, and the authoritarian Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi.

Al-Libi was the unnamed source that Bush, his former secretary of state, Colin Powell, and other administration officials relied upon prior to the Iraq invasion to assert that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was helping a terrorist organisation run by al-Qaeda. Al-Libi was known to Powell and Bush by the codename "Curveball".

And for clarification:

How U.S. Fell Under the Spell of 'Curveball'

This raises more questions than are answered.

An investigation by The Times based on interviews since May with about 30 current and former intelligence officials in the U.S., Germany, England, Iraq and the United Nations, as well as other experts, shows that U.S. bungling in the Curveball case was worse than official reports have disclosed.

Meanwhile (as the suicide occured) Woman in Rendition Case Sues for Immunity

The lawsuit asks the court to order the government to invoke diplomatic immunity, provide her with legal counsel in Italy and pay her legal bills and other costs associated with the case.

State Department officials declined to comment, noting that the case is at a highly sensitive stage.

I wonder what the former Deputy Secretary of State Elizabeth Cheney thinks of the case?

This ain't going away.............

Steele: On Moderates

2009-05-04T15:42:00.000-07:00

All you moderates out there, y'all come. I mean, that's the message," Steele said at a news conference. "The message of this party is this is a big table for everyone to have a seat. I have a place setting with your name on the front.
"Understand that when you come into someone's house, you're not looking to change it. You come in because that's the place you want to be." .......
"That vote on the stimulus bill was the effectiveness of a party call," he said. "That was a stand-up moment for every Republican.... And so, you voted yourself out of the party. We didn't kick you out." ......
Steele - who appeared to be the only African-American in the room Friday - said when he visited a Maryland Republican Party dinner in the mid-1980s he was "obviously a stranger in the room." But he said he was quickly embraced and rose to county party chairman two years later. From there, he went on to become state party chairman and lieutenant governor. ........... "The problem isn't that Americans are less conservative," he said. "It's that our credibility with them is shot. It's that we left them along the side of the road on our way to drinking that Potomac River water, getting high on power and influence and forgetting how we got where we are."

Well I'm from Maryland, I'm a Republican, and I was active in the 80's as well. I also supported the stimulus plan under Bush and Obama. In fact as I read the article I thought back to those days in the 80's when we supported Wayne Gilchrest against Roy Dyson, when we offered a simple solution; heh lets run an honest person who will not get intoxicated by the Potomac waters. And years later Wayne was not drunk on personal power or corrupted and yet not Republican enough.

I wonder who the GOP thought was the door to door foot soldiers? Who were these people that drove Dorchester county and posted signs at the firehouse, psoted signs in yards, went door to door and on election day helped get out the vote of the elderly?

Let me say again, in this blog I stated that I would "hold my nose" and vote for the aid to the economy. I said this as an American and a pragmatist with experience in finance, brokerage trading, private sector business, and international finance. I did not vote myself out of the party.

As a matter of fact if Steele claims his start as I do at the same time in MD, I propose that he "vote himself out of the party" as this is still my party as well. My blog has long supported Sen. Warren, Sen McCain, Sen Hagel, Colin Powell, Wayne Gilchrest, and other moderate republicans. If truth be told the party has been hijacked by a segment of the party who were marginalized when we "built the party" back in the 80's and 90's.

I'm glad that there is a recognition that there was a "drinking of koolaid" an intoxication of power. And I still think that the GOP doesn't get it. I think the GOP "gets it" when they reconnect with the Mainstreet Republican's. I think the GOP gets it when they stop claiming a monopoly on the ideas of the party and what divides, but instead focus on a gameplan ahead that people can participate in.

But lets get real.. there is no litmus on being Republican and seeing the systemic default risk, seeing a crisis, acting decisively, and supporting the market intervention. As a matter of fact what was irresponsible was starting two wars and going on a drunken spending spree, what made that "republican?" I mean it took this "new type of republican" to suggest a pre-emptive war, tax cuts, and an expansion of police state powers while waving a fetus to bring the GOP where it is at today.

I just want to point out two things, I have been republican as long as Steele has, that we both have but one vote, and that the only real difference is that I'm not seriously advocating that Steele leave the party, or that he has "voted himself out of it."

There is a serious absence of ideas and pragmatic solutions and approaches to the challenges we face where we hear the same old tired out rehearsed wedge issues from the now fully discredited pundits of the right.

Yeah we need new faces, new attitudes, and a new approach to imagining that the GOP is a "house party being hosted at our house."

Lets try taking the party back into the public, back into the library meeting room, and lets stop pretending that the party is "owned" by the few and instead belongs to us all.

If you try that approach that worked close to a quarter century ago you will foind that it works and that the people who will be unwelcome are the ones that don't want to observe those observations made above.

It's not your party... It's our party.. get use to it!

Kryptos sculpture

2009-05-04T10:30:00.000-07:00

The next clue will include geomancy and the celtic working cross, compass, rose cross, compass rose.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compass_rose

See

Before the development of the compass rose, a wind rose was included on maps in order to let the reader know which way the cardinal directions pointed within the plan view. No differentiation was made between cardinal directions and the winds which blew from said direction. North was depicted with a fleur de lis, while east was shown as a Christian cross to indicate the direction of Jerusalem from Europe.[1]

The last clue is interactive and the coordinates were given for that purpose. A sculpture would take geomancy and those crafts into consideration and have knowledge "along those lines."

Jeremy Rabkin, George Bush, Caligula

2009-05-01T17:43:00.000-07:00

"You should all remind yourselves," he said, "that the rest of the country is not necessarily in this same bubble in which people think it is reasonable to describe the president as if he were Caligula."

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22caligula%22+%22george+bush%22

Recent developments and channeling fisher

2009-04-30T19:08:00.000-07:00

Germany contracts 6pc as eurozone bank deposits fall at fastest rate since Depression I pointed out in my recent post that it was ridiculous to be formulating policy around a concern about inflation. What Germany and France should have been doing is targeting inflation. I think that history will judge the decision not to go to the wall with stimulus supply side measues will be taught internationally in business courses for years to come.

I will be on a forced sabatical, a euphemism for unemployment soon. I will take that time to brush off some of the old websites from the past, tag back to the waybackmachine and internet archive and have some fun.

I posted a while back that I felt bad about making an assertion at USNI after the pirate hostage rescue that the USA had not "won one lately." As an update there is a thought provoking thread along an ongoing line...

Time to ask the tough questions

In addition there was:

http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2009/04/phase-0-operations-for-failed-states.html

And these questions revolve around:

Increasingly, the national security agendas of policymakers will be dominated by five questions: whether to intervene, when, with whom, with what tools, and to what end?

We live in a changed world, are we color blind yet? No but we are getting closer.

I read many editorials wanting to close borders and think it a bad idea for allot of reasons. But this drives the point home:

"Closing borders is dangerous because many goods needed in a pandemic are made abroad, said Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, including most masks, gowns and gloves, electrical circuits for ventilators and communications gear, and pharmaceutical drugs and the raw materials to make them. ...

'You cut those off and you cripple the health care system,' he said. 'Our global just-in-time economy means we are dependent on others.' Much of our food is from overseas. 'A Kellogg’s Nutri-Grain bar has ingredients from nine countries in it,' he noted."

I watched the Arlen Specter announcement live and thought back to the club for growth election that I covered here and what Wayne Gilchrest went through. I read that Michael Steele wears his hat backwards. Having been a life-long registered repblican I understand the comment. I think that anger and billigerance doesn't sell as well in Maryland and that there is a schism in the GOP. I know I was alienated by some of the tactics that were employed in the GOP primary in the congressional 1st. I also know that Steele is more mainstream (or reasonable, pragmatic, and civil) than many in the GOP who want to be angry. Steele attended the Kent Island Bull Roast in support of Wayne and the attacks upon him are unwarranted.

I just know for a fact that not all of the GOP wants to be like Coulter and Limbaugh.

I think we will know by Sunday what kind of flu we have. I agree with Biden that avoiding public transport makes common sense. This might be an existential event beyond the realm of forseeable events that will take a bad economic circumstance and make it worse. How bad will be understood more fully when math models can be better realized.

In closing channeling Irving Fisher to fight inflation was a mistake, Germany needs to understand that we are all in this together and needs to do what can be done when it can be done prior to things getting worse.

Gardening and Michelle's garden

2009-04-23T16:51:00.000-07:00

While I don't think it was calculated initially I think that there is a covenant between gardeners. I don't know how much support that this created but I would say that the demographic is rural.

Sites like the http://assoc.garden.org/about/ offer tips and more for gardeners and have done so for quite some time.

Courtesy of http://www.emmitsburg.net/gardens/articles/adams/2009/victory_garden.htm

But I think that something else is going on. I received a marketing item from a corporation yesterday, sunflower seeds with a corporate logo. And I thought with a 20% increase in gardening and that growth in the younger demographic, that somebody in a tough marketing economy had 'thought, planned, and executed efficiently."

I will plant the seeds.

The point here is that the gardens are as much about the change in the world around us as a statement about our place within it. It is not a negative response, but instead an empowerment response.

I guess as I see the response from a world of bad news stories at least by dropping some seeds in dirt something good comes from it... "it's the empowerment stupid."

And it is very smart marketing...

I'll post some pics of my bucket garden...

still not too late to plant this year

Channeling Irving Fisher

2009-04-18T07:56:00.000-07:00

I have said it before so I will say it again, that the actions ECB has acted too slowly.

In the above photo Trichet channels Fisher to fight inflation.

He rejected allegations that the ECB has been too slow or timid in its response to the crisis, noting that it was the first central bank to begin extraordinary provision of liquidity to money markets during the crisis, back in August 2007..........

"We trust that this solid, medium-term anchoring of inflation expectations is part of our duty to be a solid anchor of stability and of confidence, and we can tell our fellow citizens: You can have confidence in the fact that we are there as a solid anchor and we will deliver what we say we'll deliver - price stability over the medium term - and we are trusted to be able to deliver."

hmmmmmmmmmm

Gold slightly lower as deflation worries continue

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

HAMBURG, Germany, April 15 (Reuters) - There remains little risk of deflation in the euro zone, European Central Bank Governing Council member and head of the German Bundesbank, Axel Weber, said on Wednesday.

Well let me tell you this, I posted this to point to it later; and very soon.

Dump the Euro as collectivvelly it is more than the French and German industrial output or consumption and Easter Europe is in a mess. Dump Gold, it is not being utilized in manufacturing production and the fear sales are saturated. And finally as a consequence of the ECB decision; go long the dollar.

Now let me point out this, that treating third world economies outside the Euro as 3rd world economies is one thing, treating economies within the Euro in Eastern Europe as third world economies is another~

The concept that the ECB would through costs externalization evoke a recovery, utilizing the argument:

The provision of more social services by governments in emerging Asia, including China, would encourage residents to spend more and save less, and would help stabilize economies that have suffered in the current downturn because of their focus on exports rather than domestic demand.

Is laughable..

I think that by the time that the ECB wakes up to the hard facts that deflation is spreading, and that that deflation will go well beyond oil, metals, and third world exports, that that will spread to Eastern Europe... will leave the ECB as a study in the future as to what not to do in a similar crisis.

God help us... the man is still fighting inflation~ instead of establishing an inflation target.

Weber and Trichet are bankers.. they say that there is no danger of deflation, when was the last time you saw a banker make a bad call?

The lives of others

2009-04-16T04:35:00.000-07:00

I would imagine that if one worked in the shadow of NSA, USNI, CIA, Treasury Secret Service, and DHS the first thing that the individual would come away with was that these institutions were comprised of people from all walks of life and beliefs. They would know that the political beliefs were accross the spectrum and that there was some ability to 'correct themselves' internally if abuse was getting out of hand, unlesss there was 'apping behavior' being performed from the top down.

I choose the title the "lives of others" as my blog name is an open invitation into getting noticed. This was not initially the calculated purpose of the screen name. It is much older than the programs that have since been created to monitor communication activity of the internet. My participation on the "internet" goes back to 2400 bd access.

The name was choosen for two reasons, to agitate neanderthals.. I have taken a position against KKK in 92 publicly in a suit following a 'populist campaign' and was surprised to see these people did exist, had marginal organization, and were if resolutely opposed and dealt with on their terms.. (and they were wrong) as was the case in the behavior in this particular case, that a peace could be arrived at. Said another way as soon as these people were certain that I would not back down and would escalate responses as they did.. bushwacking in the backwoods in a rural area, we decided mutually that we should both be able to visit a sports bar or the grocery store and not fear turning a blind eye, to the next 'sucker punch.'

I also used the name to almost protest the GE forums during irresponsible schilling in the midst of tulipmania, I also used the name deflationelation. For quite some time I had concerns that the 'gameplan' of deregulation was inheriently animal farm like in principles.

I also sort of laugh when I think of logging on as EqualTime onto Compuserve and announcing an interview.. and seeing DEE DEE get on TV and well... that was that age.. similar to a martian demanding an apology from Sherry Shriner.. the internet was like jumping into a zoo exhibit and seeing what the bears would do, without physically getting eaten. Intellectually who could resist?

DHS as an example is not "DHS" but the sum of it parts.. the people. Sure a few are @ssholes but the vast majority very fine people who really do care about the security of others. Compassionate or Vindictive? I would say that the former not the latter is the rule. I think that that generalization is appropo for all of the alphabet agencies popularized in media. There are few people like the 'movie stars' and in fact most the real people would not grab a second look on the street, they have their own lives, and sometimes peek into the 'lives of others'.

Are there abuses? Yes. and these institutions are generally self-correcting unless that self-correction is political and from the top. I cite as the perfect example:

On November 29, 2005, Gen. Pace was present at a press conference given by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, where Rumsfeld said that "the United States does not have a responsibility" to prevent torture by Iraqi officials. Pace disagreed with Rumsfeld, saying "It is the absolute responsibility of every U.S. service member, if they see inhumane treatment being conducted, to intervene, to stop it".[7][8]

Most of the humans at these agencies and institutions are like Pace. Most of the GOP are human. So the report that created the vast generalizations of veterans and the GOP, and the recent NSA news of gathering information, well that is dissapointing in that it is non-agnostic in focus.

What is really dissapointing is that our political spectrum is fueled by two extreemes, that 15% of the two party primary system put forth platforms that are designed to contrast as sharply as possible positions of 'cottage industry hate.'

The same is done globally.. there is a thriving 'cottage industry' of professional demonstrators, the guys with the armored vehicle who showed up at the G20, or the cottage industry of the klan, or the cottage industry of some other extreeme faction.. when to be succinct.. us radical moderates are fed up with BOTH!

I'm not sure if I dislike more the people who picketed veterans funerals screaming fags or the very public gay pride drag parades where S&M attired people march in public? Personally... If this is the way that the gay mariage issue must be fought I want no dog in the fight personally..

The point here is that the glittering generalizations may not be true, Dee Illuminati ought to be a ridiculous old woman suffering the indignities of trans fat foot on a pension, written daily like Tolstoy for a newspaper.. but know... there really needs to be a voice for 'radical moderates.'

The most infuriating last commennt I made before getting punched one time; which was true.. was "niggers come in all colors."

I think threats to society do as well. Hell looking back we could ARGUE that the damage done by investment bankers exceeded anything what some lone wold could do..

Yeah I have been deflationelation a long time, and dilluminati.

But if the lives of others were really known, you would see that we have more in common than at odds.

I agree..

2009-04-15T15:16:00.000-07:00

MAXWELL AIR FORCE BASE, Ala. (AP) - The Defense secretary says the recent high-seas pirate drama shows the value of simple weapons, even in today's world. Robert Gates has been praising the Navy SEAL snipers who killed three pirate hostage-takers Sunday. He's also been noting the imbalance between high-tech U.S. warships and weaponry pitted against pirates in a tiny boat. As he puts it, the U.S. doesn't need "a billion-dollar ship to chase down a bunch of teenage pirates."
Gates is pushing a plan to reorder the Pentagon budget by canceling some big programs and scaling back others. He says the goal should be larger quantities of affordable and versatile systems, instead of machines "so costly and complex" it takes a long time to just build a few of them.

(note: the ability to change test size and high contrast resolution fonts at link above)

I agree.. I advocated building a fleet of 50 Innumerable times.

I think a good specification is:

Buque de Acción Marítima [BAM - Ship of Action Maritime]
In early 2005 the Spainish government gave approved the Buque de Acción Marítima [BAM - Ship of Action Maritime] for a run of four ships and a possible total of sixteen. The BAM is 2,500 ton modular ship, with a length of 93.5 meters and a beam of 14.2 meters. Its capabilities include anti-terrorism missions, illegal immigration patrols, and protection of the EEZ. BAM's modular construction will allow it to replace older ships in electronic intelligence missions, hydrography or diver support.

or....

Description: The Meteoro, originally known as Buque de Accion Maritima Oceanico (BAM-Oceanico) or Oceanic Maritime Action Ship in English, is a new class of corvette-sized ship intended as a replacement for a variety of Spanish Navy's patrol boats which are reaching the end of their projected service life. Their primary goal will be to protect Spain's Economic Exclusive Zone (EZZ) and to provide humanitarian relief. The Meteoro-class ships feature oceanic capability, high reliability, low life cycle cost, automated ship's sub-systems and reduced manpower as well as an outstanding at sea mission endurance. Beginning in mid-2009, four BAM-class ships will replace existing Barcelo-, Anaga-, Conejera-, Toralla- and Descubierta-class vessels.

The Meteoro-class ships will be provided with a 76mm 62-caliber dual purpose gun, two 25mm automatic guns, and two 12.7mm machine guns. An aft flight deck enables operation of a single AB212/SH-3D/NH90 helicopter. The 2,500t class ships feature a CODOE (Combined Diesel Or Electric) propulsion system which combines two diesel engines developing 4,500 KW each with two electric engines developing 2x750 KW. The propulsion system allows a top speed in excess of 20 knots. The Spanish Navy's plans call for the development of a family of surface ships based on the BAM design to fit non-Oceanic missions such as hydrographic, intelligence gathering, and submarine rescue.
Specifications

Accommodation: Crew 35, Passengers 80

Guns: Main Gun Caliber 76 mm

Dimensions: Beam 14.2 m, Draft 4.2 m, Length 94 m

Weights: Full Displacement 2,500 t

Performance: Cruise Speed 19 kt (35 kph), Economical Speed 10 kt (19 kph), Endurance 35 day, Max Range 3,500 nautical mile (), Top Speed 21 kt (38 kph)

Power: Power 9,000 kW

I was also impressed with the SECDEF and SECSTATE addressing the challenge as a failed state issue. Importantly both seemed to be attuned with the challenges that we are both facing currently and will increasingly confront. The SECSTATE visiting Haiti, addressing Somalia, and discussing an international effort combined with USN and military aid to address a challenge was something that sadly we didn't see for quite some time........

I'm NOT (I repeat Not) and naval expert.. And by following alternatives to the LCS suggest that we not replace the larger destroyers that are contracted for delivery..

But as an economist and a person who watches what facts will affect tomorrow suggest that we commit to an additional 50 vessels to promote responsible supply side spending that will create jobs and promote peace.

I specifically like the module approach to the BAM so the politics of Pork do not preclude needed job creation occuring short term where it is needed most.

But all of the emerging threats seem to be capably handled by a craft such as this.. we are late in progress with this challenge... These crafts should be shared between the USCG and the USN and be an almost apollo project for jobs.

I genuinely belive this, see this as an over the event horrizon fact, my intuition screams we should be doing this...

Unified Quest 2009

2009-04-14T18:44:00.000-07:00

UQ09 Objectives to create a website that you can't read today (small fonts and bad colors) let alone in the future when your eyes get bad.

Determine the possible implications of emerging technologies and innovative applications of existing technologies on concepts, capabilities, and future operations.

Uhmmm use HTML that can be read.

Identify how the military can posture itself appropriately to support or integrate the efforts of other government agencies in future complex contingencies.

Good idea.. use HTML text and fonts that can be read..

An Internet meme

2009-04-13T16:43:00.000-07:00

An internet meme could be: secular, apolitical pirates. Cited once (1), twice(2), and here as well(3). I mean make no mistake about it; Information Dissemination and USNI are both now capable of carrying a message effectively and framing a narrative, and I do not have a problem with that.. I think the discourse is beneficial. But really putting aside the merits of the arguments I want to look at a few facts: Are Pirates the Problem, or the Solution?

Are Pirates apolitical? I mean do they ask heh.. is that a Republican or a Democrat? Is this a western meme that we carry to the conversation? Or are pirates just clans and tribes, privateers? And does that preclude that piracy could become ideological?

Second Secular? "state of being separate from religion" I mean lets get honest here.. we consider ourselves a secular society, but are we? Can we say with any certainty that when the USN shows up after a botched piracy attempt that these guys don't start praying?

And then finally they became: Somali pirates were 'untrained' teenagers: US.

And then lets not confuse the Al Shabaab or Al-Shabaab (Arabic: الشباب‎, "The Youth"), also known as Ash-Shabaab, Hizbul Shabaab (Arabic, "The Party of Youth") with the teenagers who fired mortars at Donald M. Payne. (note reading this in full gives some idea of the nation building task.)

I mean over 1/2 the country of Somalia is teenagers. (source CIA median age 17.7)

So let me say that if somebody points heavy weapons at you from Somalia despite their political affiliation, religous beliefs, there is a better than 50% chance they are a teenager if not a pirate.

And really all this leads me to believe that the USN doesn't want the task, is uncomfortable with managing expectations, or is simply very pragmatic about how many things the armed forces can do at once.

I opined at USNI and received this in response: Byron Says:
“name me the last time “Americans Won” Not going there; too much room for a tidly little flame war to start. I’ve got my opinion, you’re welcome to yours.

But I think Bryon and Sec Def. Gates has some valid points, What do you consider winning? And I think that is a fair enough question. I felt alittle bad after reading a similat post at Jeff Stein because I'm not slanted to the blame America first crowd, I don't gloat in that observation that there has been little to celebrate. Note I read Jeff daily.. but my post wasn't a dig at USNI. I don't pander either.

As eff-d up as it is.. I think the USN got stuck with this conflict. I know that the conflict was genuinely thrust upon us. But we got our hands full with Pakistan capitulating to Shariah law.. nope not very secular... nor apolitical....

And this isn't going to be easy. But really there has to be some planning along this line and defining the concept of 'winning' against a failed nation of teenagers.. with weapons, illiterate, hopeless.. well that is the way the world is and not as the way we would have it.

But the failed nation state, somalia's of tomorrow seem to be increasing..

I read today:

"This is torture for a debtors' economy. You can survive deflation; you can survive debt; but Irving Fisher taught us in his 1933 treatise 'Debt Deflation causes of Great Depressions' that the two together will eat you alive."

As we look around for international solutions we might realize that we will all hang together or we will all hang alone... and that civilization hangs in the balance.

The grade is steep and the challenges large. And no institution wants to sign up for the task to clean the Augean stables in a single day. Nor be a parent to a nation of teenagers with heavy weapons.. but we need to really ask ourselves when is a line best drawn in the sand?

I'll not trivialize the task.. but I would suggest not creating a meme to trivialize the challenge. The functional core economies of the G9 and G20 have to make sure that the spread of failed nations does not increease. This really means that the response to piracy is as important for Germany and France to ease monetary policy as much as USN vesels to confront on the open seas lawlessness.

Make no mistake about it.. prior assumptions may not be applicable now. Seemingly stable nations could be thrust into chaos in the near future and there is no isolation or insulation in America or the G8 economies.

As we look around for international solutions we might realize that we will all hang together or we will all hang alone... and that civilization hangs in the balance. The correct Meme is that piracy is unacceptable, the alternative is not a promising future and does not make the first steps needed for the challenge.

And in summation, no one institution can do it alone.

G20 outcome, Cuba, Pirates, and 9-15

2009-04-10T05:01:00.000-07:00

The G20 outcome was better than I expected, with something substantive and important emerging — namely, much bigger funding for international financial institutions (IFIs), plus expanded trade credit. This will help smaller, currency-crisis countries a lot.

A turning point? No. But realistically, most big-time international meetings produce nothing; this did something significant. I gree as well..

On Cuba, there is no reason to continue to embargo Cuba unless it is to undermine the utilization of an 'embargo.' I think that there really needs to be an opening of trade with Cuba. I see no downside to this and feel the policy will marginalize Chavez.

On pirates, I blogged on this previously. I hope that this does not become the Iranian Hostage crisis of Obama. There are many aspects of piracy I find troubling and this is not a new issue. Historically called privateers or pirates I think that UN resolutions and agreements to provide jurisdiction in an enlarged area off of Somalia is needed as well with ROE that the USN and other navies patrolling the area can use. Information Dissemination has covered the topic well there, some background material here and there.. I take small issue with Robert/Galhran on the severity of the issue, if it warrants top national security consideration or if it is an annoyance and the cost of doing business. I think the trend is that Galhran is right based on empirical data, and that I'll be right by matter of prediction and time.

I said 3-15 was the bottom, 9-15 is the recovery minus the jobs. It is the bond reclamation's stupid... Things will go smoothly and libor will ease. I applaud any media encouragement to refinance when the numbers makke that good sense. It is a daunting paper work act as many people have only closed once, and allowed the broker selling the home to steer the process. There is a remaining weakness to economic recovery, assisting people through the process of refi.

Happy Easter...

Failed Nation State versus Weak Nation State

2009-04-01T13:22:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I reflected on the outcome of the G20, namely "marginal economies becoming failed economies, marginal economies becoming failed nation states."

I read at USNI the following article (I see new media as an article) and this is worth reading.

Failed States Are Worse Than Weak States

It takes allot of hard work to put together a post in a blog, spell-checking, tense-consistency, and editorial constructs that engage. It is not easy and that is why some "stand out."

But it is nonetheless a valid observation that it does not take a Haiti or Somalia to qualify as a national security liability to western industrial nations as a consequence of inaction.

And here is another idea to consider...

If Wen Jiabao stops buying US debt, China's currency will rise – which is what America has wanted all along

I mentioned the European leaders who have behaved badly (in my opine) to financial challenges, (call it a crisis??) comments Financial crisis 'caused by white men with blue eyes'.

But that poor behavior and the rhetoric is not producing results that will avert "weak states."

G20 Predictions this ought to be boring

2009-03-31T18:09:00.000-07:00

I thought to mention Information Dissemination and the report carried by Drudge Report to this link. Which goes on to state:

First posted on a Chinese blog viewed as credible by military analysts and then translated by the naval affairs blog Information Dissemination, a recent report provides a description of an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) that can strike carriers and other U.S. vessels at a range of 2000km.

The range of the modified Dong Feng 21 missile is significant in that it covers the areas that are likely hot zones for future confrontations between U.S. and Chinese surface forces.

The size of the missile enables it to carry a warhead big enough to inflict significant damage on a large vessel, providing the Chinese the capability of destroying a U.S. supercarrier in one strike.

Because the missile employs a complex guidance system, low radar signature and a maneuverability that makes its flight path unpredictable, the odds that it can evade tracking systems to reach its target are increased. It is estimated that the missile can travel at mach 10 and reach its maximum range of 2000km in less than 12 minutes.

I have to admit that I read http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/ daily and that these guys are producing some of the best work in their respective area. It drives home the reason why the "Dinosaur Media DeathWatch" is occuring. By the time the main stream media MSM gets the story, it is after Drudge made it yesterdays news.

I watched these guys earlier, and if I could see the future would state that these guys are the real McCoy and their "new media skills" excellent. This is not clumsy ass roo-haaa military stuff.. these guys are really putting together material at USNI and ID.

On the G20

I will be awaiting to see who makes the biggest headline. Unfortunately the summit has denegrated into a media debacle of indignation, where politicians will attempt to portray the greatest amount of indignation for these two following facts.

OECD predicts 10% jobless rate for 2010

and

Rapid Declines in Manufacturing Spread Global Anxiety

I credit http://opensourcegeopolitics.blogspot.com/ for much of my raw material to draw my opinion.

The G20 has set a stage that is almost at odds with it's goals. If CEO's flying in private jets receiving baliouts are unpopular, well these guys at the summit have to advocate some messages to set them apart.

Let's see Sarkozy threatens to walk out, Merkel says no to a stimulus, so Don't Come Up Short, G-20.

But let me tell you what will happen, the event will be looked back upon as the moment when failed nation states of the future could have been averted, it will be looked upon as when politicians knowing better made the decisions to avoid unpopular topics and decisions, and made themselves in the long-run not isolated from the challenge but further embroilled into it.

Notice and make a list and take note of those who genuinelly advocate cooperation and those that do not. I'm not discussing a difference of opines on how to act, but instead a willingness to cooperatively act!

I posted the Global Trends links, they explain the consequences of failed nation states. The unwillingness to avert these failed nation states will eclipse the costs of acting now in a cooperative fashion where coordinated rate cuts and stimulus spending are "supply-side" as these nations unravel derivative positions that offset stated monetary positions. An agreement to agree.. would avert marginal economies in the Euro failing, marginal economies becoming failed economies, marginal economies becoming failed nation states.

No.. be sure that after this is over and the contagion spreads that the countries mentioned, Germany, China, the United States, France, the G8 will be ok relatively speaking. The dollar will not be replaced with a global currency, in fact it will strengthen as a consequence of innaction and further global downturn. But what will be missed is the opportunity to stabilize economies that are marginal.

So lets tune into the media event, watch those who try and steal the show, remember that 10% or more of the viewing audience is unempolyed, and that the attempts to distance themselves from the debacle by G20 ministers will be unsuccesful.

My bet.. they lack the courage to do what they know is the right things to do. In short they will act as politicians and not economists.

My bet.. it'll be a debacle and a missed opportunity and make a bad situation worse.

Education on Student Loans

2009-03-19T20:30:00.000-07:00

I'll have to tune-in on CSPAN to see the show-down on Student Loans. This is a dificult topic, as exciting as reading ingredients on a food label with lots of chemical sounding names.

I'm going to make no bones about this, I'm going to frame the issue by suggesting that one read this: Direct Lending: Why Obama's Student Loan Proposal Should be Adopted.

And then actually read this, tough read but imformative: Federal Student Loan Programs - History by The New America Foundation which is described by WIKI as "The Radical Center" and by SourceWatch.

Laughing Wiki is having a hell of a time with the "Radical Center"
but I ssure you that they exist, some have termed themselves "Radical Moderates" to really throw their centrist beliefs up against the statous quo..

Ok.. now where is the issue? Well click on either picture below or follow this page link, http://www.newamerica.net/programs/education_policy/federal_education_budget_project/basics/loan_rules

Well let me say that accounting abuse is not new... But the information I read at this website is acurate and the portrayal non-partisan.

Here is another side of the story...

Student-Aid Administrators Urge Lawmakers to Reconsider Killing Guaranteed Loans

And here is the NASFAA "conceptual framework" Note: this concept of course is 'batteries not included'...

And here is the way that the issue will be framed to the profane and unwashed...

For the record.. and I don't care who I piss off... I support the Obama plan and the OMB observation that by a reduction of information silos and duplication of services, will save tax payer money.

This ought to be interesting to watch on CSPAN. It will be interesting to see how this issue is handled?

I cannot make this shit up... read how the two accounting standards differ in the two pictures above... Somebody like Rush Limbaugh well he don't need to do no stinking reading, don't need no stinking facts... can't add or sbtract and has preached privatization his entire life.. Michael Steele a MD Republican, can add subtract, and probably follow the party line...

I was surprised to see the enators and congress critters preaching "eat the rich."

If the public understood the issue, it is like derivatives and CDO's they would not.. not... be amused.

Where's my bubble dude?

2009-03-17T18:01:00.000-07:00

I have maintained for quite some time that 7300 was the appropriate support at this time. This assertion was made repeatedly. There comes a point where a company like Comcast becomes cheap when you consider that it is the 3rd largest phone provider in the united states, is ready to go 50m/s in internet speed, and has not even scratched additional markets like home security systems like alarmguard, smoke detection, "or help I've fallen and I can't get up" with the remote control. There comes a point where opportunity and price converge and an appropriate response is not fear.. but a focus on investing. Nope Comcast is not 'sexy' and can't be talked up or down by a TV investment schill, but for growth and return at the oversold market price was a buy.

That leads me to the title "wheres my bubble dude?" I mean we spent all this money on AIG and why isn't my 401K reflecting it? I mean the figure was a trillion and that ought of bought me something or so the reasoning goes.

Well it's gone is the answer.. probably not coming back for quite some time.. and in reality was only there in paper initially irrespective of what you paid for it. I mean you buy a Furbie doll for a ridiculous sum.. doesn't mean that there is a buyer.

That is why markets fall so quickly and fast.

If we can wrap around the fact that global markets lost 50 trillion we see that it will take quite some time for that bubble to return, that inflation is not an immediate risk, and that the actual bailout amount in respect to losses is "relevantly small" when considering the size of the global market that the US market constitutes. But there nonetheless is a public relations issue with bonuses and how this works out is that there will be a means to dissuade banks from crying poor-mouth for the free lunch.

Now.. let me get real honest.. I was opinionated with many of the mistakes that the Bush Administration made, butal and never the panderer.. that is not my personal history... and I didn't take the positions based on the popularity index either..

I actually give some credit to Ben Bernanke, think he made the very unpopular but correct moves, and that the chances for systemic default have been much reduced barring an event not directly related to the finance markets. In particular I see the next real swing up at 9-15 and then a possible XMAS rally... but where is my bubble dude????

If you spent 150/share on redhat will you get that money back??? I doubt it. Do I like RHAT where it is now?? yes.. Again I see a formula for growth that doesn't need a BS story at this price.

Citi.. hmmm.. at what price does CITI have growth potential, I mean what makes something "cheap?" I know that credit card deliquencies are up.. and know that new management notably: Anthony Santomero. McKinsey & Co. is the top shelf of consulting and all my encounters with these people in the past on numerous occasions leads me to 'know' that this was not a position of being 'tapped' to a board position, but that the best and brightest was sought and procurred.

For the record: Ben Bernanke and I share the optomism that this fall will be a turning point.. however I want to make a few succint points.. first the dow will take a long-long time to revisit some of the behavior and prices that it did during the over-valuations, that home prices will take some time to return where what you paid will be paid in turn for a home, that unemployment will be problematic barring innovation and new technology, but that the end of civilization, the great depression, or needing to buy seeds at http://www.survivalseedbank.com/. I mean really... for $129 there is a market for fear...

The point here is that there is opportunity but expectations is the key. If you are an investor, then the market has opportunity. If you want to gamble safely go to Vegas.. play the pass-go line, you can win big... or lose big...

I think that the narrative that the "economic crisis" is over when the stock bubble comes back, or you can refinance your way to prosperity will return, is a false expectation.

I think that 6800 to 7800 is a reasonable trading range and again I stress I'm optomistic. I have traditionally been VERY conservative with investing and have always sold early and taken a profit.. and I get up and walk away a winner if I gamble...

But heh.. stocks are cheap, and there is value out there.. and if you can buy and hold there is value to be had...

In closing bears make money, bulls make money, and pigs get slaughtered.. so you execs taking bonuses while at the public taxpayer trough.. he don't get slaughtered for being pigs.. ya all hear now????

I'll post very soon on rotations.. I'm still a bull with the dollar, bear gold, recommend sell China.. (they are over-valued) and transparency is an issue... their economy is contracting and they are not as adept as the US economy to deal with it..

The US is sort of screwed, Euro gang-rapped to use metaphor.. and when the US gets a flu the world gets phenomia..

But not as an apologist to the greedy execs at AIG.. but to put things into context..

50 trillion has been estimated lost globally.. and of all the economies on the globe.. you should be thankful that the US economy is as resilient as it has been, and that the FED, Treasury, and especially FDIC has done as well as they have.

The US will be the first out of the ditch.. but don't expect your bubble back anytime soon.

Cramer Revealed

2009-03-11T17:48:00.000-07:00

http://www.thestreet.com/cramerstake/EGGS.html

You know I watch this, and I'm a realist. I'm a pragmatist. I'm not a boyscout.

However.. when it becomes a circumstance where:

"Then you will see the rise of the men of the double standard--the men who live by force, yet count on those who live by trade to create the value of their looted money--the men who are the hitchhikers of virtue. In a moral society, these are the criminals, and the statutes are written to protect you against them. But when a society establishes criminals-by-right and looters-by-law--men who use force to seize the wealth of disarmed victims--then money becomes its creators' avenger. Such looters believe it safe to rob defenseless men, once they've passed a law to disarm them. But their loot becomes the magnet for other looters, who get it from them as they got it. Then the race goes, not to the ablest at production, but to those most ruthless at brutality. When force is the standard, the murderer wins over the pickpocket. And then that society vanishes, in a spread of ruins and slaughter.

"Do you wish to know whether that day is coming? Watch money. Money is the barometer of a society's virtue. When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion--when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing--when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors--when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you--when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice--you may know that your society is doomed. Money is so noble a medium that is does not compete with guns and it does not make terms with brutality. It will not permit a country to survive as half-property, half-loot.

And then we find those who identified this issue VERY EARLY.. and had the SEC contact them a deflationelation@yahoo.com or call them at home, God forbid that they were not identified and targeted for some simple telling of truths that served none.. served none but a few... was a genuine national security crisis unfolding... or in the case of some who simply "tuned out" when these truths became impossible to ignore.

Who is the threat to our nation? Some neanderthal in a cave ranting around the globe or the man who destroys wealth as a game???

Some people ought to be asking some damn tough questions... not to chase somebody through the sewers of Paris for a loaf of bread.. no... to make sure that this doesn't happen again.

Cramer III

2009-03-10T18:14:00.000-07:00

Let's see... hmmmmm munching popcorn... hmmmmmm blog about the Chineese agression with US naval vessels in international waters or......

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

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Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

I called the 15th as a rally, really the safe moment to put 'some' money back to work. I called that moment but candidly I might have called that a week late. But remember, bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

I also think Cramer exceeds himself comparing himself to Buffet...

Jim Cramer part II

2009-03-09T17:27:00.000-07:00

Well I have more time than I anticipated and candidly expect much more of it to blog. Nobody is immune from this downturn.

But to the news: I read Cramer's response, I also read the attack that Limbaugh created that Cramer mentioned. And I want to reiterate that I simply called the folks over at CNBC @ssholes only.

Unlike the editorial here: Jim Cramer Uses CNBC to Manipulate Stocks which accuses the cast and crew at CNBC with much, much more.... Again to reiterate I only observe that these guys at CNBC are like a broken clock that makes allot of noise in that they are sort of right twice after the fact... when the stock hit it's high and when it hit a low.

My blog never insinuated:

"blackmail, smear campaigns, espionage, fraud, harassment, extortion, bribery, rumor-mongering, sabotage, off-shore money laundering, political cronyism, frivolous lawsuits, witness tampering, biased financial research, false identities, bogus credit ratings, bribery, libelous blogs, bad science, forgery, wiretapping, counterfeiting, collusion, lying, cheating, threats and theft."

I said that the dollar would remain strong,

http://www.forexhelp.com/charts-eurusd/1440/

That gold was a bubble at 1000

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

And that the schills at CNBC were @ssholes...

A Rising Dollar Lifts the U.S. but Adds to the Crisis Abroad I read this article and thought of the interview of Warren Buffet this morning on Squatbox.. Warren said, heh the DOW is simply a number and gave some really sound advice, watch the fundmentals.

And the same is true of dollars... or currency.. so what is the NYT suggesting?

“It’s a huge safe haven effect,” said William R. Cline, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “The basic assumption that people are making is that the U.S. government will never default on its debt.”

As the dominant flavor of money used in business worldwide, the dollar has once again been affirmed as the global reserve currency.

Now as Cramer carps on "euthanized banks", did he forget to tell you that gold is down, the dollar is up, and that his obsessive focus on the negative is not the solution?

Warren Buffett was on today and here is the "bleed it leads" headline, did I mention that newspapers are in the crapper and leading with anything sensational???

Buffett: crisis is an economic Pearl Harbor

Here is the another story here from the same interview:

Buffett sticks to his view that shares
are best long-term investment

Now I watched Squatbox this morning and saw the endorsement of Coke and the rationale behind it.. and it reinforces my opine that the CNBC folks are @ssholes and Buffet is not and that you can't trust what the media tells ya.. You have to make your own informed decision.

But Rueters reports that

Wells Fargo shares boosted by Buffett Which seems to create an impression that the SquatBox crew is influential...

I don't know somethings but miss very little.....

I'll have more time after Wednesday this week and will brush off some of my older work and repost Global-Lite.

I'll show you a connection bewteen electricity and commerce and show you by per capita income the connection, why Buffett likes utilities, why I like em, why Obama has it right with the stimulus in this area, and why some are just purely negative...

Things seem to be going bad for me??? Yeah looks that way.. But as Buffett points out to the question Hey Dude where is my bubble at lately:

"I would never have a feeling that the Dow is going to go to 2,000 or 12,000 or 4,300 or 20,200. I don't – I know over time it will go higher," Buffett said. "But if you buy a cross section of good equities, generally well capitalised companies, you'll make money over 10 or 20 years. I haven't the faintest idea where you'll be in 10 months, but it really doesn't make any difference."

" Everything will be all right. We do have the greatest economic machine that man has ever created, I believe," Buffett said. "This machine is gummed up right now and it's gummed up by a lack of confidence, and that makes people scared and, I mean, it feeds back and forth and it's a vicious cycle."

"I've never seen the consumer or the Americans just generally more fearful than this. And they're also confused. And you can get fearful very quickly, but you don't get confident, you know, in five minutes. You can get fearful in five minutes, but you won't get confident for some time.

I want to close by reminding folks, we have nothing to fear but fear itself..... and that I will be dusting off Global-Lite nettrustcentral to remind how rural electrification was a solution, and then some empirical photos of Mexico, Belize, Roatan, and per-capita income and why a smart grid is smart business.

I know what I know, you know what I mean????

So to reiterate: stay long dollar, caution gold, buffett good, CNBC schills @ssholes, fear is an emotion not an investmant strategy, and media is an equal amount of entertainment and information, so you should at least sniff what you consume.

And I did not, I repeat.. did not insinuate:

"blackmail, smear campaigns, espionage, fraud, harassment, extortion, bribery, rumor-mongering, sabotage, off-shore money laundering, political cronyism, frivolous lawsuits, witness tampering, biased financial research, false identities, bogus credit ratings, bribery, libelous blogs, bad science, forgery, wiretapping, counterfeiting, collusion, lying, cheating, threats and theft."

Jon Stewart Devastates CNBC

2009-03-05T18:22:00.000-08:00

Well DeflationElation@yahoo.com knows a thing or two about GE and Co. and the shows that they have been hosting for quite some time.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220252&title=cnbc-gives-financial-advice

I remember Jack Welsch's wife on 60 minutes decrying how dangerous interent folks were, of course the same folks that were contacted by the SEC to be told "hey tone it down"... yes the SEC actually called people on their home phone numbers from yahoo screen names, to complaints made about comments in Yahoo chat rooms, were God only knows why the King's wife of touting were at, had concerns.

As it happened, Lesley Stahl at 60 Minutes made a segment[14] about misinformation on the internet (aired March 2, 1997) where Grabbe was singled out and interviewed on the show as a warning example.

Hmmmmmmm... I always saw the same thing that John Stewart saw when he did his video, I also wondered in pre-trading if signals were given by the people directly on the floor on live TV to indicate if an insider-trade should occur?

But anyway.. I retired the deflationelation@yahoo.com pen name in the late 2000 era as I will soon retire dilluminati.

Let me say this, that Grabbe understood derivatives, he understood the storm clouds on the horrizon. I find an irony in the fact that Orlin died on March 15th which is one of two major bond reclamation days; 9/15 and 3/15 respectively.

The copyright lawyers would have ripped me a new butt-hole if I had put together that video, which is a masterpiece. But I have to think back to the Eggs stock pick and Crammer, and the speculation of if Maria was tugging her left ear on TV or not?

I wonder if the SEC called John Stewart and attempted to get him to cease and desist with a phone call made not for the purposes of securitues enforcement but instead at the request of somebody like say Jack Welch's wife or Jack himself? I hear that Madoff had connections and that the guy who played the role of Orlin in his case in congressional testimony told the members... heh.. if you're mob... I'm not the bad guy... which leaves you wondering

But there is another point I want to make as well. Not that Jack Welch might have been more a recipient of being at the right place at the right time, at the apogee of a bubble... I mean some of his CNBC statements are really amazing.. no.. that is not the point I intend to make... No...

It is that the same @ssholes that told you how good things were are now almost all telling you how bad they are, and guess what?? If you listen to them you stand an almost certainty of being misled again.

I choose 3/15 as a pivotal day in my last blog entry as I know that:

9/15 was a near meltdown event.

3/15 will be tough.

that most of the bad news is being reported and that there is no real need to hide or cook the books with tarp and bank stress tests...

and..

and..

that the worse just might be behind us.. if not this march that september.

The same people who told you how good things were.. will be moooooing with all the other economists of how bad things are.. and the opportunity to buy low.. will come and go as fast as the ability to sell high.....

The point here is that if you do what these people tell you.. your f-ked

If they are telling you to buy at a peak then SELL!!! If they are telling you to sell.. then BUY!

Yepp...

International Financial Markets, 3rd Edition (Hardcover)

The author of this book cited by 60 minutes as a very dangerous man... well if 60 minutes had done it;s due dilligence.. maybe they would have warned about these schills, bankers, touters, and TV economists.

Now who is dangerous now?

Can anybody argue that all the material that Grabbe wrote that was found by some to be objectionable, that the derivatives chapter in his book International Financial Markets, 3rd Edition (Hardcover) would be the most damaging in the hands of those who the media promoted as denouncers?

I mean the irony of Stewart is rich... But Grabbe being called out by 60 minutes and Jack Welch's wife and his dying on 3/15 is....

well it is just strange enough to be true.

But here is the tip... if, if you sold out at the top of the bubble, put a percentage back into the sp index march 16th.. not all but some.. do it again 9/16.. not all but some.. when the same yapping idiots on tv are telling you how bad things are....

their track record is horrible.. to be succesful you have to ignore them.. and if the GE CEO is on Squat-box and the reporters are all giving him oral sex on live tv.. and his wife is complaining.. well ignore her too....

you get the truth here at Dee Illuminati...

Two articles to illustrate yesterdays assertion

2009-02-20T05:24:00.000-08:00

Ten Reasons to Avoid the Gold ETF Is a well reseached article. But if you don't read the article above you don't see the immediate issue in this artcile:

The investment demand for gold, which includes gold exchange traded funds (ETFs), gold bars and gold coins, was 64pc higher in 2008 than 2007. Demand for bars and coins rose by 87pc over 2008.

And then in the same article:

Even lower-value gold investments such as jewellery saw an 11pc increase in demand in dollar terms. Industrial demand for gold however, fell by 7pc. This was a reflection of the economic climate as fewer people bought laptops and other electronic goods that use gold in production.

Laughing.. do your own research and do not use 2008 figures~

I mean there are opines:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1040432870

and opionions...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1039849853

and like @ssholes everybody has them.

But I focus on the facts of math.. simple concepts like too many debts chasing too few dollars.. or in the case of gold.. (minus neumistic value) is a derivatives house of cards, waiting to come down hardest on the "buy and hold" gold bugs.

"buy and hold" people of any color take theology over math.

I'm on vacation and will not be posting or checking email. Stay long the dollar, refinance your home as if your job and those you know depended upon it, avoid those who need a bubble and your participation to make a living, and realize that no matter how fvcked up the USA seems at times, that travelling to other countries makes you realize that with all the warts... it's still the best system and will be here tomorrow.

I'll start focusing for fishing for value after the 15th and look at some prescient opportunities to make back what was lost when I get back.

Economc Literacy

2009-02-18T18:45:00.000-08:00

Take for a moment and consider, that often it is stated we live in a Democracy. Well there are voting booths in most nations even North Korea, but in fact most people live in Capitalist economies. That said: the reality is that ones ability to actualize and freedom is tied directly to finances. I have often wondered if education curriculum should include economics in the grade schools. I guess right up there with woodworking class or home economics we should have a course on APR interest, mortgage amorotization, and simple ledger acounting. I say this because many people are ignorant about economics, not stupid mind you; but ignorant. In fact it is astonishing to see an Engineer as an example matriculated from University demonstrate an ability at mathematics and an appaling ignorance of economics. I think the instruction material online at Quickbooks on how a ledger entry system operates and the principles should be required curriculum.

Women often earn less and also are steered away from learning economics. The emphasis on learning money principles should be really emphasized with women in grade school as the ignorance is felt by dependent children.

I think there is many areas to point fingers or play the blame game for the current economic mess. That said I think that thee United States will be the first economy to come out of this deflationary trend as the actions to date are decisive and we probably have the highest amount of economic literate professionals on average across the developed nations.

The Chicago Fed I credit with looking forward and contemplating deflation. In addition as we see the response was decisive, if you fight a fire you do not dole out water, you put as much water on the inferno as soon as possible. As the following story illustrates, Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Jean-Claude Trichet’s decision this month to keep interest rates unchanged will push Europe’s economy deeper into a recession, the region’s bond prices show. While I refuse to kiss anybodies ass I can at least point out that the decision of US ZIRP was not indecisive.

We already hear discussions of US bank nationalization or second steps, as some major economies have not taken the first steps. No, not happy with the condition we find ourselves in, but at least glad that a decision was made to address the circumstances.

The idea that you can liquidate an economy on 13 dollars a week is ludicrous, only PMI and refinancing can put $100 to $300 per month into consumers pockets and reduce the M1, M2, and M3 obligations. Deflation is of course too many debts chasing too few dollars.

The first step, preventing systemic default.

The second step, stimulate suppky side spending.

The third step, reduce obligatory debt in M3.

As tough as this is to accept, it could be worse. The plan could be to do nothing or in the case of the Euro the decision to do something need ratification.

The final bubble???

2009-02-18T04:44:00.000-08:00

Where do all the Gold ETF's and 2x Gold ETF's get their bullion from? I don't know but it seems to me that Gold swaps are sounding very similar to CDO swaps. I mean stand back and consider what would happen if say somebody bought a house on paper once, sold at a profit, then bought again on paper and sold at profit, then somebody took physical possesion of the house at a artificially high asset price? It would seem to reason that the moment that the market for paper house's crashed, that the value of the real ones would as well. Well Gold is no different.

I stated NUMEROUS times that holding dollars was the correct choice. Well the US economy seems to be screwed, well Ok.. that means that the European economy is gang raped. I read with some amusement, NEW WORLD ORDER by Time the assertion that the Euro will dictate to the US is a fantasy. The ECB should have cut rates and allowed easing:

Austrian financial sector is solvent. However, as Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism notes, Austrian banks have apparently lent as much as €230 billion, or 70% of Austrian GDP, to the ex-Soviet bloc. She quotes at length from a piece by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the UK Telegraph:
"Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay–-or roll over-–$400 billion this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut. …

'This is the largest run on a currency in history,' said Mr Jen.

In Poland, 60% of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has just halved against the franc. Hungary, the Balkans, the Baltics, and Ukraine are all suffering variants of this story. As an act of collective folly – by lenders and borrowers – it matches America's sub-prime debacle. There is a crucial difference, however. European banks are on the hook for both. US banks are not.

Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian, Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74% of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets. …"
Ms. Smith reports that the Austrians are allegedly confident that Berlin will bail them out. Meanwhile

See my initial paragraph from my last blog..

Yep I called the dollar correct and still say that Gold at the end of the bubble will be no good if you take physical possesion, when the deflation persists there are less dollars to pay for inflated gold, when the recovery finally takes hold and that could be some time from now, the value to safety will drop gold as it has done before.

On the record I supported the stimulus plan and know that it is neccessary though certainly imperfect. I would have held my nose and voted yes.

Awhile back I mentioned 7300, I think that that number is the actual support number and currently (post 3/15 bond data) a good number. I expect that the recovery will require more assistance and that areas of progress will finally emerge in three years as the short end of the bond market comes due.

I will not be using my old blog name of deflationelation.

I own that one as well.. and used that in the GE forums to criticize a CEO who thought he was MIDAS as we were in well.. a bubble.

yep, deflation was the result.. buy a bubble at your own risk and don't expect a bailout if that bubble is gold.

Stimulus Package and considering stopping posting online

2009-02-05T19:15:00.000-08:00

Leaders are a long, long way from accepting this reality, and when they do finally accept it it will, unfortunately be too late to find any kind of rapid exit strategy. The issue is expectations. People still have inflationary expectations, but this will turn, and expectations will change to the anticipation of price decreases, postponement of consumption, and when we do reach this point it will be the devils own work to get them out of that pit."

I read an article at Open Source GeoPolitics where a perennial musician and malcontent was in lyric attacking the stimulus package. And I thought to myself, after very open requests to "tone it down" and drop the blogging at annapolis junction... And my thought that the energy challenges warranted to continue doing so, when in the final days of the last administration when it was unpopular but obviously required to inject liquidity to prevent systemic default I supported it. And keep in mind there are engineers who ride choo choo trains and those who design aircraft.. they both go by the same title, and not all economist get the real peril of the circumstances we as a nation face, as a society face, as a culture face, if we fail to stave off deflation. Let me tell you as an economist who predicted deflation before it was popular, who predicted the housing bubble, predicted the internet stock bubble, and did not get pulled into any of these debacles personally.. that systemic risk leads this austrian economist to support as I did under the Republican administration a strong dollar and a resolve to fight deflation.

I'm serioulsy considering discontinuing blogging as Dee Illuminati. The message of energy challenges I feel has finally gone mainstream and as the proposition of supporting this position is no longer marginalized, there is no need for the additional sensationalism to the lurid pen name. Did the name gather attention??? LOL I will assure you that it allowed me to garner the attention, and then "turn" almost every intelligent person to my perspective if I supplied the facts.

I did not stop blogging as I was complacent with all in the world around me, not that I felt that suddenly we had entered an enlightened age, but instead that there was a concensus that we really did need to make some changes.

I will keep my old penname so it is not used in a racist or anti-semitic venue. However I think I might disclose and shock, quite possibly go audio with a blog, and as has been suggested by a former asssociate, "write one hell of a book" on my career.. insights, and opines.

But really putting all the political bullshit aside, and knowing that almost everything can be viewed in a political lense; I decided to log in to warn that as a socitey we are really f-ing up if we cannot find a majority in leadership and governance to make a list of items that are in agreement to stave of systemic collapse and deflation on a scale that will dwarf the great depression.

There are no farms to return to. This isn't the 30's were more than 1/2 of the industrialized nations employment was agriculture. We have passed the rubicon and have no recourse but civil unrest if there is not a means to keep the existing financial system functional.

This isn't about left or right, this is about right and wrong. And in the same unequivocal manner that I supported the first round of stimulus, I support the second one as well.

This might be a reason to even put oneself further on the line than say objections to an unnecessary war.. torture.. or a failure of an energy policy.

To be certain: playing games with deflation and politics will get none of those in office re-elected. It is a prescription for dissaster to not allow treasury and FDIC to manage as they did initially to prevent a collapse in confidence and a full scale systemic collapse.

This fucking around with politics is madness, Madame Defarge is knitting... you better get this stimulus passed while there is something left to stimulate.

For those who think I came off the reservation.. I drop the dee illuminati pen name and go full diclosure.... I'll set a whole new boundary to the term "reservation."

I highly suggest that this stimulus package pass on areas of agreement and that talking head politicians avoid a camera if despite the stimulus this goes bad......

I want an apology!

2009-01-21T18:58:00.000-08:00

Lets get one thing straight here, I spoke clearly and asked the question, Caligula, Cincinatus, or Nero? YOU MUST DECIDE! And then I made the argument that "miserable failure" was the epitaph and it stuck!

I said repeatedly as did others though not as rudely as myself that a lack of an energy policy has left this economy and nation in peril. In fact the lack of an energy policy in the wake of 911, may ne looked back upon as western socities such as Iceland, Spain, and traditional "western cultures" struggle, the economic shock of incompentence, the societal shock of incompetence, will be the legacy of the lost decade under Bush.

Don't you try and pin this on the Illuminati. Go look in the mirror to the supporting of all things wall street and the abandonment of Main Street. Take a look at an unprecedneted opportunity to herald in new economies and the squalor and the results.

There was something absolutley strange-glove about cheney in his wheelchair.

No I always called it brutally honest, the guy was, is, and will be remembered as a "miserable failure."

No.. this second video isn't too harsh, I could exceed this with facts and figures

Some would say: "Wildly off the Mark!"

Some would say: "We need to go a crack some Kevlar!"

I say we have just seen an empire ending the reign of a man that will undoubtably go down in history as the most collosal failure and ruler in world history and become eventually synonomous with the term failure. I think that only a denial mechanism, an unwillingness to see things as they genuinely are, allows some to assert that history will vindicate somebody who states, "Well you know I made decisions that people disagreed with, and they were wrong, but at least people can't say I wasn't willing to make huge mistakes and poor decisions and remain stubborn about them!"

And you know the last minute people who waited for the bully to turn his back and walk away? You know, those who never really had a disagreement on policy, cowards most of them, never had the courgae to ROAR "miserable failure" and the tough questions.. well candidly they probably ought to buy into the heroic historical revisionisn crap stuff... I mean if they pandered to the initial crap, lacked self sufficient judgement to call it what it was.. lack common sense, well maybe they deserved the sweet taste of shit.

Maybe Bush was needed to show society what not to be, or what is about to come. Maybe there is no solution as long as people demand a free ride, wealth from nothing more than speculation, food in your child's mouth at the cost of famine to another's.

But ask, ask anyone, where was the energy plan? Where was the movement to make the nation more self sufficient? And don't toss that ludite proctectionist dogma over this way, And for that reason alone.. never a statement about self-respect and self-sufficiency, no energy plan, your scared, very scared, you fear.... well you call the man a failure and turn your back on him in polite company as he rides off in the sunset. It was worse than a reign of crime, it was a reign of stupidity!

Naw don't try and pin this one on da illuminati... Take a fucking good long look in the mirror and remember if you are capable of intellectual honesty.

It was the energy policy stupid! It was the energy policy stupid. 43 was the failure.

Sincerely Dee Illuminati, registered GOP, in God I trust all others pay cash in US denominated notes.

DEFLATION (understand the issue)

2009-01-11T08:40:00.000-08:00

I really have to tune-out those who don't understand the facts. 98% of all of the blah-blah that I hear on TV is nonsense. You have to really read into the news for the truth.

irving fisher debt deflation theory

If you have well meaning but frightened family members tossing their life savings into gold have them read this article before the gold buggs Madoff them.

Al Martin

Planetary Deflation & The Case Against Gold; Explaining Gold to Gold Bugs Again… and Again…
(11-3-08) The financial upheaval in global financial markets has led to a sharp increase in demand for physical bullion. As a consequence premiums on gold bullion and gold bullion coins have soared to levels never before seen, where indeed we find that one-ounce bullions coins are now trading as much as 14% above their bullion value, as people continue to chase them and mints worldwide are unable to keep up with demand. We do not advise paying this tremendous premium to own gold because the price is completely unwarranted. It should be remembered that the usual premium is 3%, but we are seeing enormous premiums simply because mints can not keep up with the demand for the physical gold coins. Demand for physical bullion/coins always increases during times when the markets are in a state of upheaval.

Why? Because there has been a pickup in demand for physical gold from the “unwashed,” those who believe that gold will “shine” once again and those who believe that it will be $2000 per ounce tomorrow and those who believe the current economic turmoil will end with a round of hyperinflation. And they are wrong to believe that.

The economic calendar releases in recent weeks show a sharp deceleration in global economic growth. Indeed we saw last week through the US Q-3 GDP advance numbers that growth in the United States is now a red number, and it’s expected to fall potentially 3-4% in Q-4. We suspect that the entire planet will be in a negative growth mode by the end of this year.

The price action in gold is telling them that they are wrong. The planet is now entering into a global deflationary trend which will become more pronounced by the middle of 2009. Indeed the IMF is forecasting that global inflation will come in 2009 at a minus 2.7% number which is just another way of saying that we are at the onset of secular global deflation, wherein asset prices will continue to decline and the US dollar will continue to rise in value. “Secular,” in this case, means long term; “cyclical” means a trend that exists within a secular market.

You don’t want to be paying a premium for a commodity whose price is falling and will continue to fall. There are many growing negatives that gold must contend with. In a deflationary trend you want to hold paper, not gold -- in this case “paper” meaning the US Dollar. The US Dollar has sharply outperformed gold this year in terms of an investment.

As the “deleveraging trade” continues on this planet, the Dollar will continue to move higher and this “deleveraging trade” phenomenon will take years to complete. There are still far too may investment banks hedge funds that have n their books a leverage of 30-1 or 40-1 or greater. The process of deleveraging assets has just begun – and we are not even halfway through it. This combined with the onset of what is going to be a very deep recession at a time when speculative bubbles in a variety of asset classes have just burst ensures that we will see falling prices and the rising value of the US Dollar.

The fear that grips the gold bugs and the gloom and doom crowd (that all the banks are going to shut down tomorrow) is just that. Indeed during the last several weeks we have actually come close to that on several occasions, but that doesn’t mean gold would immediately be used in its capacity as the “currency of last resort.” It doesn’t. If banks are shut down, they are simply reopened the next day or a few days later.

The Mad Max Post-Apocalyptic vision of the future simply isn’t going to happen. It’s interesting to note that historically, in protracted periods of deflation, governments’ ability to control economies and control nation states increases dramatically.

This is an economic phenomenon we are now entering as we are transitioning from an asset overhang into what will be a paper or dollar trade. Meanwhile the gold bulls conveniently overlook the negatives. As the global economies continue to deteriorate, there is increased selling of gold by all central banks, IMF, World Bank, etc. which have gold to sell.

Indeed we have seen a pickup in the selling of bullion from any institution that has gold to sell. The Washington II Accords, which had regulated the sale of gold for central banks and the IMF, have effectively collapsed under the pressure by global regulatory and lending institutions in order to raise money. There is a mad scramble to see who can sell more gold the quickest within the world of central banks and global financial institutions. Also the new mine supply of gold on the planet continues to increase. It takes gold bugs to shill the gold again.

It should be pointed out how long it takes for a planet to ramp up gold production - from the time a piece is assayed to the time the first piece of gold comes out, including the time the mines and refineries and infrastructure is built etc. is 7 - 10 years. That’s true. But gold production has been ramping up n this planet since 2004. We are now seeing the effects of the over-production of gold.

Historically the price of gold has peaked 2-3 years before the supply of new mine gold peaks. In other words, as the price of gold peaks at any given time and continues to fall, one of the things that causes it to fall is increasing supply. We are seeing that phenomenon already. So that even in 2008 new mine supplies combined with bank and other institutional selling has brought 5500 metric tons of gold to market. That’s a record amount of gold coming to market.

In the last analysis, this is what the gold bulls hate because statistics cut both ways. Only 16% of gold is used as a monetary metal the rest of it is used as a commercial and or industrial metal.

It should also be remembered that recessions are not friendly to industrial or commercial metal uses. We have seen that gold’s other principal use which is jewelry has already begun to fall sharply. Gold’s industrial usage, particularly in semiconductors, is also declining.

Gold’s principal value is as a commercial metal, not a monetary metal. The gold bugs who incessantly promote gold are not economists. They have little understanding of Economics 101 and because most of them have a vested interest in peddling it somehow.

Gold will continue to under-perform as an asset class and will continue to fall in value. Now it’s true what the shills say that gold has risen substantially in comparison to other currencies like the Euro or the British Pound. The problem is that Americans aren’t buying and selling gold in Euros or Pounds; they’re doing it in Dollars.

In Dollar terms, it is likely that the price of gold will continue to fall because there is a host of negatives. For instance gold shills like to talk about the increase in demand, but you never hear gold shills talk about the increase in supply.

Gold is in a similar situation as it was in 1980, wherein you saw the price of gold peak in January 1980, but you didn’t see global production peak until 1983. This effectively cut the price of gold in half from 1980 to 1983. In intermediate terms, 6 months out I think you’re looking at $600 gold.

Indeed many gold shills you may have seen on CNBC or Bloomberg will admit that there is a $200 premium in gold because of ETF gold funds – which incidentally the unwashed have poured money into. More physical gold then comes to market through financial distress which further depresses the prices even more and will begin to take out that $200 premium.

As traders, we continue to short the December gold contract on rallies, as does about 80% of the trading community. The only people who are buying gold on dips versus shorting rallies are the one or two lot Joe Six Pack Unwashed. The professional side is on the short side of the gold market.

You must realize that the planet is entering a new era and it will be a period of protracted deflation and it is the only way that the planet can be held together economically and financially. In this era governmental power actually increases. This deflation is in a way being purposely brought on by governments, not in the sense of being in control during the collapse of speculative bubbles, but you will see governments fostering deflation more and more because it tends to increase governmental power at a time when governmental power needs to be increased in order to keep the planet together as the planets economies continue to unwind.

What is needed, as the unwinding continues, is for governments to stabilize the geo-political, economic and military situation of the planet or nation states will break up into little fiefdoms, which is what the gold bugs believe will happen. The reason why that isn’t going to happen is because we are entering a period of deflation, where the U.S. Dollar is going to be the king among paper currencies.

The U.S. Dollar, during deflationary times, rises against an ounce of gold.

Why Obama's green jobs plan might work

2009-01-04T07:52:00.000-08:00

Some states -- including Michigan -- already see renewable energy as their future: It's the only sector that appears to be making room for more employees despite the recession.
By Marla Dickerson

January 4, 2009

Reporting from Hemlock, Mich. — While Detroit's automakers struggle to rebuild their sputtering operations, the key to jump-starting Michigan's economy may lie 80 miles northwest of the Motor City.

This is the home of Hemlock Semiconductor Corp. It makes a material crucial for constructing photovoltaic panels. And that has turned this snow-covered hamlet into an unlikely hotbed for solar energy.

On Dec. 15, the same week that General Motors Corp. and Chrysler begged $17.4 billion from taxpayers to stave off collapse, Hemlock announced a $3-billion expansion that could create hundreds of jobs. It's a rare piece of good news for this battered Rust Belt state, whose 9.6% unemployment rate is the nation's highest.

In contrast to Detroit iron, Hemlock's quartz-based polycrystalline silicon is in such demand that workers in white smocks and protective gear toil around the clock to get it to customers around the globe.

Hemlock has been deluged with applications from idle factory hands such as former autoworker Don Sloboda. The 50-year-old Saginaw resident has been retraining at a local community college for what he hopes is the region's new engine of job growth.

"It looks like the future to me," Sloboda said.

Whether clean energy can pull Michigan out of the ditch remains to be seen. But the push is on to retool America with so-called green-collar industries.

President-elect Barack Obama wants to spend $150 billion over the next decade to promote energy from the sun, wind and other renewable sources as well as energy conservation. Plans include raising vehicle fuel-economy standards and subsidizing consumer purchases of plug-in hybrids. Obama wants to weatherize 1 million homes annually and upgrade the nation's creaky electrical grid. His team has talked of providing tax credits and loan guarantees to clean-energy companies.

His goals: create 5 million new jobs repowering America over 10 years; assert U.S. leadership on global climate change; and wean the U.S. from its dependence on imported petroleum.

"Breaking our oil addiction . . . is going to take nothing less than the complete transformation of our economy," Obama said during a campaign stop in Michigan's capital, Lansing, last year.

Americans have heard it before. Every president since Richard Nixon has touted energy independence, yet the goal remains elusive. The U.S. imported less than a third of its crude around the time of the Arab oil embargo in 1973. Today foreigners feed nearly 60% of the nation's petroleum habit.

Skeptics fear that the president-elect's Green New Deal will do little but waste taxpayers' money. The government squandered billions on the Jimmy Carter-era synthetic-fuels program, a failed effort to create vehicle fuel from coal.

Corn-based ethanol -- the latest recipient of fat subsidies -- is loathed by many environmentalists, who say it is an inefficient fuel that gobbles precious cropland and helps to drive up food prices.

Better to let the market decide, not the state, said Donald Boudreaux, chairman of the economics department at George Mason University in Virginia.

"The history of government picking winners in the U.S. is not that grand," he said. "People instinctively love the idea of green jobs. . . . But there is a lot of mass stupidity out there."

Renewable-energy proponents such as former California Treasurer Phil Angelides say stupidity would be to stick with current U.S. energy policy, which has turbocharged global warming, super-sized the trade deficit and propped up oil-rich regimes hostile to American interests.

Angelides heads the Apollo Alliance, a coalition promoting clean industries as a means of rebuilding U.S. manufacturing and lessening the nation's dependence on foreign oil.

"It's the best path to recovery and the best chance of creating jobs that can't be outsourced," he said.

Although Angelides' organization takes its name from the space program that put Americans on the moon, creating green jobs isn't rocket science, said Oakland activist Van Jones, author of "The Green Collar Economy."

Jones said Obama's proposal to weatherize homes would pay for itself through energy savings while putting legions of unemployed construction workers back on the job. A $100-billion investment in a green recovery could create 2 million jobs within two years, a good chunk of them in retrofitting, according to a recent University of Massachusetts study.

"You can employ a lot of people very quickly with off-the-shelf technology like caulk guns," said Jones, founder of Green for All, an economic development group. "This isn't George Jetson stuff."

No one knows precisely how many green jobs exist in the U.S. economy. Estimates range from less than 1 million workers to nearly four times that. What's clear is that clean industries have been growing rapidly without a lot of help from Uncle Sam.

Worldwide, investors poured a record $117.2 billion into alternative energy in 2007, according to London research firm New Energy Finance. The costs of wind and solar power are dropping fast.

But the industry slowed in late 2008 as the U.S. financial system imploded. Plunging oil prices and frozen credit markets have derailed a number of renewable-energy projects. Some advocates say U.S. government support is needed to keep the sector moving forward.

That strategy has worked for Germany and Japan: Neither is blessed with abundant sunshine, yet these nations boast more rooftop solar arrays than anyplace else, thanks largely to government subsidies. That has created vibrant domestic markets for solar power and tens of thousands of jobs. Asian and European solar module makers dominate the industry.

The irony, say American solar executives, is that the U.S. was an early innovator. Bell Labs introduced the world's first photovoltaic device in the 1950s. NASA's space work advanced the field.

The U.S. "created this technology, but we didn't value it because [fossil fuel] energy was so cheap," said Ron Kenedi, an American who is vice president of the U.S. solar operations of Japan's Sharp Corp., a major manufacturer of solar cells.

"We need to reclaim our birthright."

Many state and local governments aren't waiting for Washington.

Tough state mandates to cut greenhouse gases and boost the use of renewable energy have turned California into the nation's hottest market for solar energy. Installers such as SolarCity of Foster City continue to hire even as the rest of California's economy stalls.

Pennsylvania used incentives to lure Spanish wind-turbine maker Gamesa Technology Corp. to set up shop in an old steel facility. The company now employs more than 1,000 workers in the state, most of them unionized.

New Mexico is diversifying its mineral-based economy with green technology. Germany's Schott Solar is building a $100-million plant near Albuquerque and the state is grooming wind power technicians at Mesalands Community College in Tucumcari, one of only a few such programs in the country.

Trained wind workers are in such demand that General Electric Co., a maker of turbines, has promised to hire every Mesalands graduate for the next three years.

Michigan has started its own Green Jobs Initiative to retrain displaced factory workers for careers in renewable energy.

"If we can bend sheet metal for car fenders, we can bend it for windmills," said Ken Horn, a Republican state representative from hard-hit Saginaw.

A tavern owner, Horn said his regulars had been buzzing about green energy -- a sign that the industry was no longer considered fringe or radical.

Michigan's brightest renewable stars are in solar. United Solar Ovonic, a major producer of thin-film photovoltaics, operates three manufacturing facilities in Michigan and has two more under construction in the state.

Hemlock Semiconductor is a joint venture of two Japanese firms and Midland, Mich.-based Dow Corning Corp., which owns a majority stake.

It is expanding its rural campus not far from Saginaw and building a plant in Tennessee to produce more polycrystalline silicon -- a semiconductor that allows solar cells to convert sunlight into electricity.

The exacting chemical process begins with the mining of quartz and ends with huge, gray, U-shaped bars of polycrystalline silicon wheeled to an assembly line at Hemlock's Michigan plant, where they're broken into small chunks for shipment.

Most of the product is sent to Asia and Europe, where solar manufacturers turn it into the familiar panels seen on rooftops. Hemlock employs 1,400 full-time and contract workers in Michigan and expects to add 500 more in the next few years. The plant operates 24 hours a day, 365 days a week, never stopping, even in a recent blizzard.

Snow and ice couldn't keep Rich Steudemann from sliding into work on a recent morning. A mechanical engineer with more than two decades in the auto industry, Steudemann jumped at the chance to join Hemlock last fall as a quality-control expert.

"This is like the era of Henry Ford," said Steudemann, 45. "This industry is just starting to take off."

marla.dickerson@latimes.com

I want to make the point that the steel industry uses huge amounts of traditionally dirty energy, beyond the immediate jobs that clean energy creates, it creates the infrastructure for traditional jobs as well. The nation that can create an infrastructure with the most reliable and cost effective, (you need to include trade imbalances and funding terrorism by buying foreign oil) will win the commanding heights of the post bubble debacle.

IN CLOSING: WE NEED TO CONSERVE FIRST AND CREATE RENEWABLE OPPORTUNITY HERE AT HOME.

New Year Day! Some insights into 2009

2009-01-01T08:48:00.000-08:00

You have to look back to make comparison and contrast assrtions, what will change or what will be new.

First let me say: That I think that the FED by and large was succesful in avoiding systemic collapse. I have held this belief for some time. I advocated strongly that there be an intervention. Is there surprise that the congress took the FED to the woodshed and made them the whipping boy for the economy? No. But I feel that if no action had been taken, no let me sate this: I'm CERTAIN if no policy had been taken, that we could have had full scale systemic default.

That said above, looking forward I agree with some of these predictions, they are consistent with what I have sated here for quite some time.

The economy will not recover in 2009. Job loss will continue through the year and unemployment will reach 8% in the "headline" statistic by the end of the year. U-6 (broad unemployment, or the closest to "real" unemployment without government "cooking") will top 15%. All the "talking heads" are predicting a turnaround in the second half of 2009. They will be wrong. Look at their records for 2008 - all of them were predicting closes at or above 1500 for the S&P 500. Why does CNBC continue to put people on the air who, if you listened to them, cost you 40% or more of your money?

Deflation, not inflation, will become evident well beyond housing. Other capital goods beyond housing will see real price declines for the first time since the 1930s. Debt is inherently deflationary; the "hyperinflationists" will once again be shown to be wrong (how many years running will it be now?)
Housing prices will continue to decline. I believe we're about halfway done with the price correction. Those who think we will turn this in 2009 are wrong - unless we get an all-on collapse in prices in early 2009, which I do not believe will occur. I've heard several claims we will have positive year-over-year home price changes in 2009. I'll take the other side of that bet.

The Fed's attempt to "pump liquidity" will be shown to be an abject failure. We will see either a Treasury Market selloff or worse, severe instability in the dollar at some point in 2009.

GDP will post a 12-month negative number and there is a decent shot that we will actually see an official depression print before the end of 2009, defined as a 10% decline peak-to-trough.

The Stock Market has not bottomed although you may think it has for a few months. The annual range will be quite extreme; I would not be surprised at all to see 1,000 touched on the SPX in the first part of the year. I believe the SPX will at least touch 500 in the next 12-24 months and the current bottom will not hold. It is possible that we could see a crash to SPX 300 and DOW 3,000 some time this year, probably after the spring (when the "Obama Halo" wears off - if it isn't blown off by economic events first.) Yes, this means I am predicting a fifty percent swing in the SPX in 2009. Lots of money to be made as a trader if you're quick and good, but an absolute minefield if you're a long-term investor.

Precious metals will not be a safe haven. The callers for $1600 and above on gold will be wrong, unless there is a major military conflict. I do not rate that probability as particularly high, but it is an event (along with a major terrorism incident - nuclear or biochemical - that would cause a rocket shot in Gold prices), so I am hedging that call. The risk of this sort of "response" to the economic crisis is, however, real, and will rise significantly going into 2010 and beyond. We'll revisit this one (a major war) next year.

The Dollar will not collapse. This is not because we're in great shape or will truly recover, it is because the rest of the world is in worse shape than we are. Last year pundits were all calling for the dollar to collapse to 40 - it didn't happen. Now they're calling the dollar's strength a "Bear market rally." Nonsense; the simple truth is that while we're in bad shape the rest of the world is literally on the precipice of a full-on collapse. European banks are more-levered and less-transparent than our banks as just one example.

The pound or euro - and perhaps both - will likely be where the FX dislocation initiates if it occurs. I see the potential for the pound and euro to both reach par with the dollar, although I'm not going to go that far out on the tree limb and predict it - yet. Needless to say that would rocket the Dollar Index but it won't be our strength that does it - it will be their weakness.

The US Consumer will go from a negative savings rate to a seriously-positive one. I am predicting 4% in 2009 but it could go as high as 10%. The math on this is simple - the "consumerist legion of more" has run its course and all that's left is debt. It hurts and bad; expecting the American Consumer to cut off his other arm is just plain dumb. By the way this is a good thing in the longer term for America once the excess debt is forced out and defaulted through the system.

Commercial Real Estate will effectively collapse and most commercial Real Estate REITs will be either insolvent or limping on life support. There will be calls for bailouts (which may be attempted; the calls are already starting to be heard) but it won't matter - a failed business is a failed business, bailout or no, and overcapacity must go away before sustainable business conditions can return.

Along with the above, expect 10% of all retail stores to close, and that number could go as high as 20%. That's not going to be fun; there will be hundreds of malls that wind up literally shuttered across America. Stay away from most retailers and property groups as investments. Firms like SPG and VNO are levitating on the strength of their dividends (7-10% yields at present); I believe this is a sucker play; if retailer defaults force dividend cuts (and I believe they will) the commercial REITs will go straight into the toilet.

Several states will get in serious financial trouble and outright default of one or more is possible in 2009. California leads this parade. But even if there is a default on a state basis, the effect will be highly localized, as county and municipal governments vary in their wisdom and budget process. The real pain comes in state-wide social and educational programs. Be very careful if you are in municipal bonds or thinking of getting back into them (I recommended they be dumped in 2007 - look at what has happened to the closed-end funds in 08! Aieeee!) as the default risk is VERY REAL. If you're buying individual issues and do the work to determine not only the risk of default but also the likely recovery if they do default there are some good deals out there - but only if you're doing the work. "Trust me" (as in buying funds, whether mutual funds or closed-end stuff) is very dangerous.

Mortgages are not done. The story last year was "Subprime." This year's will be "ALT-A", "Option ARMs" and so-called "Prime". The Fed and Treasury know this, which is why they are playing games with "agency" debt in a desperate attempt to clear this market before the ticking nuclear devices go off. The amount of debt involved in these "bad deals" is vastly higher than that in the "subprime" space and if they fail to contain it (a near certainty) Round #2 of severe bank instability gets served up on us in the second half of 2009.

If you want to refinance a mortgage you may get one brief shot at it with long rates around 4%. You're nuts to buy outright unless you intend to die in the home, but if you have a solid reason to be obtaining a mortgage or wish to refinance you will probably get the opportunity. This assumes the "buydown game" gets going before Treasuries dislocate; if you get the opportunity take it as it is likely to be fleeting. The few places in this country where homes wind up selling for 2.5x incomes (on average) and you have an opportunity to finance at 4% and change will be decent buying opportunities - if you're sure you can cash flow the note (e.g. your job and/or income stream is not in any danger of collapsing.)

Those who have said that the corporate bond market is being "unreasonable" in its expectation for defaults will start to look like the jackasses they are. Actual default rates (not projections) on non-investment-grade debt will skyrocket starting in 2009 and there will be no sign of it turning around this year. If you're playing in this area of the market thinking that "the worst is behind us", I hope you like walking around bald as the haircuts handed out to folks like you will be especially severe and delivered with a straight razor.

The calls for "more lending" to consumers and businesses will go exactly nowhere. The problem isn't credit availability - there's plenty of money available to lend if you are credit-worthy. Those who are being turned down now simply aren't credit-worthy when one looks at what they want to do with the money and what they're backing their repayment capacity with. The more "credit stimulus" is thrown into the economy (and there will be more) the worse the downturn will get.

General Motors and Chrysler will fail to meet their targets and it will be labor that sinks the deal. At least one and probably both will wind up in some form of bankruptcy in 2009. The UAW is insane; Gettlefinger needs to be strung up by his genitals and pelted with rotten tomatoes by his union "brothers", and if they had a lick of sense they'd have already done it. They obviously don't. I give this mess six months tops, with Ford as the only possible survivor. The recent GMAC games show exactly how desperate they are; 0% 5 year loans to people with 620 FICO scores are flat-out insane and the default rates on those loans are going to wind up in economics textbooks five years hence.

Protectionism and currency manipulation will rear their ugly heads in 2009, originating not here but in Asia as their economies go straight into the toilet. China and Japan are at severe risk here.

Commodities will appear to be headed for a new bull market but this will turn out to be a false hope as demand continues to collapse. Attempts to manage oil output to prop up the price will fail. Several oil-producing nations will find themselves in
serious economic trouble, with Russia being in the lead but by no means alone.

Sovereign debt defaults will number at least three with many other nations on "watch" for same; we had one last year (Iceland.) Noise about a US "AAA" downgrade will continue. Highest on the list for probables are Russia, which needs oil at roughly double its current price - and stable - to be financially viable. Not going to happen in the near term.

China will have its first large-scale rumbling of civil unrest as a consequence of collapsing export demand and thus employment. They'll manage to tamp it down - this year. Don't take a bet on that holding together longer-term. Those who think China will be "ok" are deluded; they have a horrifying overcapacity problem (debt-financed, of course) and there is no way for them to get out of it. They are truly going to "take it in both holes" down the road, but the worst of it won't be in 2009 - that is still a year or two in the future.

Foreign uptake of Treasuries will be choked off - by necessity. It won't be because they want to screw the US (although they should have a long time ago, given our profligate and unsustainable habits), it will be because they will be forced to redirect their resources inward as their own economies collapse.

"The City" (London to be precise, Britain generally) will be recognized as getting it "worse than we are" (in America.) This will be the first of many validations of my thesis "we're screwed, they're gang-raped."

Things will get "revolting" in a number of nations. Not here in America. Yet. If we're lucky the American Sheep will wake up and stage some of that peaceful protest stuff I outlined above. If we're not so fortunate 2010 could be really bad.

The reason why I posted was that the FED cannot be blamed for things beyond their control, their efforts are correctly focused on preventing social unrest as alluded to above as a consequence of systemic default. That is why I started with and reiterated this point.

To read the above you think that the dollar is toilet loaf and a refuge. Let me be succint about this. Let this be the one item I drive home if you take nothing away from this blog this year, that there will be continued rotations (not cyclical markets) but rotations in equity as unwinding of positions occur in a deflationary market occurs. WHEN IT IS ALL OVER you will want to be in US dollars. Deflation destroys dollars, it does not create them.

All told, about $7 trillion of shareholders’ wealth — the gains of the last six years — was wiped out in a year of violent market swings.

If the fed can avert the loss of TRILLIONS more, avert full systemic default, then they should intervene even as I hold my nose with news of Madoff and other excess and abuse.

What the Fed cannot do is return that 7 trillion as it really never existed but instead was a reported cash positions of unrealized gains in mortgage returns.

Nobody wants the Fed to state that this unreal money exists, what we want is the FED to facilitate orderly and functioning markets.

The argument that the FED's actions are inflationary are laughable in a deflationary downdraft.

Similar to Chemo Therapy the trick is to kill the cancer without killing the patient.

We are in the end of a Kondratieff Cycle last completed in the great depression. Will there be another "great depression" in 2009? I think not as the FED has succesfully to date disallowed systemic defaults.

Be careful in taking advice from the TV stock market pimps, accountants, tax preparers, insiders, etc. in 2009. Even if these people work in finance keep the one item I stated above as an axiom, stick to the US dollar.

I currently work in portfolio systems management (I write the code to track and report them) and I'm always surprised at how many of these "accountants" are not economists.

And laughingly.. when I worked at the IMF I was equally surprised how these economists didn't understand a budget. (I wrote code there as well.)

And finally, it was only as a consequence of being a broker, stomping the OEX naked in the 90's can I make the statements above.

The person who imparts the advice has to be fluent in ledgers, exchange, and settlement. Equally at ease with NPL's as ETF's.

No matter what the market schills tell you, no matter what the blame america first crowd says, remember that no matter how fvcked up the USA economy might be, the rest of the world is worse, despite Mr. Madoff included. Stay long the dollar and happy New Year.

Worst New Years Prediction for 2009???

THE day before a powerful blast sent his headless body flying out of his Gaza home, senior Hamas leader Nizar Rayan predicted that the Islamist movement would defeat Israel. "God willing, Hamas will win,"

Yes 2009 will have it's challenges, but it is nothing to lose your head over.

I missed a comment:

I skipped pretty much everything after "so you think money is the root of all evil?" If people are going to quote the Bible, they need to finally get it right. Money isn't the root of all evil, LOVE of money is the root of all evil. 1 Timoty 6:10 - "For THE LOVE of money is the root of all kinds of evil."

And candidly when it comes to I being ascribed the quote from Ayn Rand, I cannot be held accountable.

In as Much as the New Testament was quoted let me reply that in respect to Madoff I think Matthew 25:14-30 is appropriate.

I think Proverbs 15:6 is applicable as well.

If you skipped the Money Speech then I suggest you revisit it.

"Money will always remain an effect and refuse to replace you as the cause. Money is the product of virtue, but it will not give you virtue and it will not redeem your vices. Money will not give you the unearned, neither in matter nor in spirit.

For a good list of Biblical Quotes on Money read this.

Bruised ego and dignity

2008-12-30T15:31:00.000-08:00

And to paraphrase a commenter over at Ace of Spades, after loading that boat up with egos and self righteousness, there couldn't have been much room left for medical supplies....

Now I haven't got a dog in this fight but know a damn fine quote when I read one, but I was curious to see what the other guy looked like when I saw the news this morning of the Dignity pulling into port. I have seen similar danage done by Dentists and Attorneys who get their bow thrusters stuck, (the guy swore they were stuck) as he ate away at the pilings with the side of his Yacht.

Absurd... hmmm... well lets say it this way: This is either the theatre of the absurd, politics at it's finest, or politics at it's worse.

I see it as politics. I'm flying Swiss colors on this one.

But yeah now that the dignity has a black eye you have to wonder what the other guy looks like from the scrap? I mean was this a huge destroyer, corvair, dingy, pilling, barge, etc??? I mean if the HMS Lollipop gets rammed I want to see both the boats.

Well you knew that this story was going to lead the news cycle.

Lets see how this one unfolds.

Back to real news with real impacts, Focus on Weatherization Is Shift on Energy Costs. I recall FPL using this approach in 2006. It is a simple yet effective program. I'm glad the first solution proposed was the most cost effective and achievable. I still remain committed to energy security first and foremost here and focus on the interest of energy, economy, and finance. If the low-income weatherization program is more widely adopted, I see benefist and an accomplishment that meet metrics accountability. This is a good first step.

End of Year stuff and that sort of thing predictions and recollections stuff

2008-12-28T07:45:00.000-08:00

The year ended as it started with Hedge funds blowing up. Back in January I proposed succinctly that deflation was upon the economy and that of course has been the story of 2008.

The coughing up of phlem over in the European Union will make the idea of having gone bourse with the ERU a political nightmare. Those same Asians who sold USD will come running back to the USD as haven, and the current momentum in FOREX the last ripples of a bubble gone bust from the 90's. As deflationary segments of the fallout occur the spot price of Gold will drop, and halting production will not keep the price at a high enough levels to support the 'financing' of metals extraction. Lower consumption will result in lower oil and Chavez will find himself along with Iran in a trap, not the dollar trap that they imagined, no instead the realities of 'unintended consequences' of an attack on the dollar, and the resulting consequence of the destruction of their alternatives. Watching the greater fool theory in Gold will be fun, cash assets USD will be key to buying depressed real property in stable economic zones. And China with it's pollution and challenges best recognized by Diamond in collapse, will demonstrate why they should have harmonized as well, and that deflation (or to many dollars chasing too many debts) will be the result of that unrestricted growth, and an inability to purchase 'real wealth.'

My bet.. get ready for the whiplash of the century, there is no market unless there is the opposite side of the trade. :)
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....................

And that has been this year where the opposite side of the trade has prevailed.

I don't do the gloom and doom thing.. but really when you looked at the fundamentals this was cooked-in as an outcome.

My hypothesis is simple, no matter how screwed up one thinks the US is, one needs only to do some limited travel to see how screwed up the rest of the world is.

So the year ends as it began, with the lone wolf and rogue trader narrative, as if the systemic issues of credit are not the larger problem? As if the Madoff scheme hadn't done well until credit collapsed?

My precition is simple, Gold is over-bought and still a bubble. That aside from US dollar cash positions your money is at risk, and that the shoes about to fall are abroad. On loosely regulated investments, hedge funds, etc.. I supported the TARP but now get a sense that it has gone astray in it's focus. Beyond financial institutions that were registered as such prior to the creation of the Tarp fund, there should be no bailout.

Sooner or later the FED has to say no. And when they do? You will see the strong dollar return. It will happen faster than one might imagine, there are too many funds out there that will implode. The Derivatives market cannot be bailed out, and the math behind that assertion a certainty. Tarp exists for Main Street and not Wall Street and I see that fact as a 2009 certainty.

But as the year ends, think of how the year began. It seems that everybody knew that there were open ended and uncovered positions littering the street, nobody seemed to care, but now there is no covering the facts. It is not a proposition of libor rates, it is a proposition of uncovered positions.

Here is some no-brainer predictions, and I'll add another, go long on home gardening in 2009.

Happy New Year, don't follow the lemmings, and don't drink the koolaid.

Merry XMAS

2008-12-25T09:43:00.000-08:00

An occasional epic football game

2008-12-21T09:47:00.000-08:00

It has not been since the The 1990 NFC Championship game where Jeff Hostetler and the Giants simply prevailed that day. This was genuinely one of the best games of all times, and while the Ravens beating Dallas was not an "epic" game, no Joe Montana did not play.. as in 1990 nontheless this was as near an epic game outside of playoff games as one gets.

The assesment that the win by Baltimore was a fluke can only be offered by those who didn't see the game as the National Football Leagure by exclusively broadcasting the game limited the audience, but this was a game that I think defined a new era.

To dismiss Baltimore of Pitsburgh who both visited the NFC East this year as a fluke is to ignore the wins by the Bengals also. The fact is; is that the AFC North is playing some good ball with young teams.

A near epic game where the announcers and the coverage didn't live up to the play.

Rick Warren and the ADL

2008-12-20T04:22:00.000-08:00

Read this to get a sense of the truth on Madoff. Good article. There appeared to be a secret society of Madoff investors.

Now I observe:

I see the Drudge link to the ADL story that decries the observation that Bernard Madoff is a Jewish thief, I mean lets get real. Here is the wiki entry, can that observation be missed? Said another way, as Bernard was all Jewish all the time, in schooling, in his charity, in his investment circles, etc.. how can that fact be missed? It is as if the ADL is saying after a lifetime of criminal activity in the Jewish community that we should ignore the later? Fraudulent conveyance is where people get drawn into legal woes by attoneys running up legal fees. I have had a close family member in a similar circumstance and all I can say is that a thief is a thief is a thief. Real people get hurt when criminals such as these duck and hide under the cover of groups such as the ADL. Lets be real clear about this, being Jewish is part of the story for Bernard, and the fact that he is a heinous thief is the reason of the story, not that he is Jewish. Of course the ADL is quick to take offense. The ADL thinks of all issues through their religion, as if facts did not matter.

Similar is the Gay Transgender Bi and other groups who interpret their world view through their genitalia. Bothe the ADL and the radical genitalia first crowd seek to intimidate an agenda upon the rest of a nation where it is not an issue of their exclusion, but instead a subscription to any public decision without their inclusion.

Lets be clear about this, I don't think that the inclusion of say of a sex change transgender gay rights activist adds anything to the innaugaration. The fact that these gay rights groups choose to make this an issue, or that the ADL decides to make the issue with Madoff seme similar.

I'm Glad that Obama is not thinking through his genitalia as a litmus, not seeing the world myoptic through hiis religion, that would be so like George Bush who never needed a fact when he had an opinion.

I wish the ADL's funds had been invested with Madoff and then a group of attorney take legal action for fraudulent conveyance against that group.. then they would see the truth.

I wish the public dialouge could rise above the waistline. I would hope that the "I have genitilia therefor I am" crowd, the "I'm jewish therefor I am" crowd, could join the "I think therefor I am" crowd. I think often and even with Warren's case and beliefs.. it is these positions of myoptic belief that they all share.. that make these groups and people the problem and not the solution.

I hope Obama passes laws prohibiting a swearing in ceremony and performs the oath instead.. removes the ten commandments.. puts criminals in jail like Madoff and tells people I don't as a matter of public policy care what you do with your genitalia.

With all the challenges this nation faces.. we don't have time for these perenial whinners.

Shoe thrower was beaten says Iraqi judge

2008-12-19T04:25:00.000-08:00

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jNRHUv3d5re4SrbIqzQ6xGu5aDmgD955OG6G0

Well I don't condone torture, especially what this administration has done. But let me point out that the incident created a scenario where two executives of state were put in a position of having to determine if the incident was designed to provoke a response where a second incident would occur?

Similar to a bombing where a second bomb goes off to get gawkers and police officials, designed to get the crowd that assembles as a consequence of the first act, these people needed to know if that was the design behind this incident?

It is one thing to create a scenario to rush a president off the stage, but to where?

If that contingency plan was compromised then there was a danger. Not only for the two executives being rushed away from a minor incident and into a more nefarious one?

You can bet on the jack booted thugs to act first and ask questions later.

The initial report of the guy being heard beaten after immediately being removed after the incident is standard operating procedue. I imagine he needed to convince those guys prior to leaving that BLDG that he was indeed acting alone.

Again, that was one of the dumbest acts I have ever witnessed and screwing with that crowd, Shin Bet, Secret Service, or any other state security team is gonna prompt a session of answer the questions.....

There is a distinction here and a critical one, the beating did not exceed the window of actionable intelligence and the time decay of threat.

I don't find the result unusual or critical and if I had been charged with protection would have done the same to protect my charge and go home myself after work.

The reporter was a fool, a damn fool, and damn lucky a journalist tackled him first.

There was an immediate window to determine if there was a larger threat and that immediate act a diversion, the security people were correct in the protocol and the treatment was confined to that window of threat...

That's what you get when you screw with these folks.

The 10 Worst Predictions for 2008

2008-12-18T18:09:00.000-08:00

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4569&page=1

I disagree, these predictions are pathetic but don't match these two:

http://www.revelation13.net/

Revelation 22:18

http://sherryshriner.com/

And as a runner up then of course there is Rush Limbaugh who has been perenially wrong...

Bernard Madoff steals 50 billion and is sent to his bedroom and made to close his door

2008-12-17T15:54:00.000-08:00

When I heard the news that Bernard Madoff was under house arrest, I had to laugh. I mean honestly this is like sending somebody to their room for arson or grand larceny. For those overseas investors who get the response to their hard earned monies being stolen, rest assured: In America we will send the thief to his room, not take away his XBOX, cell-phone, TV, gourmet foods, or any tangible assets.

http://news.google.com/news?tab=wn&ned=us&hl=en&ned=us&q=madoff+house+arrest

As pensioners and fixed investors get screwed, as savers and investors get ass-fucked, what we receive from our government as a response is another investigation as to why this happened yet again.

I think that this response was the worst response that the United States could send concerning our nations ability to lead a world economy.

It is on par with house arrest for selling nuclear secrets which Abdul Qadeer Khan received which promotes the stability of Pakistan for handling nuclear weapons.

Lets be honest about this, there is a kleptocracy at work here in America and they are stealing everything that isn't nailed down, and they don't want to lend to one another because they know the next is as illegitimate and insolvent as themselves.

I was reminded of the Money speech which I have posted before:

"So you think that money is the root of all evil?" said Francisco d'Anconia. "Have you ever asked what is the root of money? Money is a tool of exchange, which can't exist unless there are goods produced and men able to produce them. Money is the material shape of the principle that men who wish to deal with one another must deal by trade and give value for value. Money is not the tool of the moochers, who claim your product by tears, or of the looters, who take it from you by force. Money is made possible only by the men who produce. Is this what you consider evil?

"When you accept money in payment for your effort, you do so only on the conviction that you will exchange it for the product of the effort of others. It is not the moochers or the looters who give value to money. Not an ocean of tears not all the guns in the world can transform those pieces of paper in your wallet into the bread you will need to survive tomorrow. Those pieces of paper, which should have been gold, are a token of honor--your claim upon the energy of the men who produce. Your wallet is your statement of hope that somewhere in the world around you there are men who will not default on that moral principle which is the root of money, Is this what you consider evil?

"Have you ever looked for the root of production? Take a look at an electric generator and dare tell yourself that it was created by the muscular effort of unthinking brutes. Try to grow a seed of wheat without the knowledge left to you by men who had to discover it for the first time. Try to obtain your food by means of nothing but physical motions--and you'll learn that man's mind is the root of all the goods produced and of all the wealth that has ever existed on earth.

"But you say that money is made by the strong at the expense of the weak? What strength do you mean? It is not the strength of guns or muscles. Wealth is the product of man's capacity to think. Then is money made by the man who invents a motor at the expense of those who did not invent it? Is money made by the intelligent at the expense of the fools? By the able at the expense of the incompetent? By the ambitious at the expense of the lazy? Money is made--before it can be looted or mooched--made by the effort of every honest man, each to the extent of his ability. An honest man is one who knows that he can't consume more than he has produced.'

"To trade by means of money is the code of the men of good will. Money rests on the axiom that every man is the owner of his mind and his effort. Money allows no power to prescribe the value of your effort except the voluntary choice of the man who is willing to trade you his effort in return. Money permits you to obtain for your goods and your labor that which they are worth to the men who buy them, but no more. Money permits no deals except those to mutual benefit by the unforced judgment of the traders. Money demands of you the recognition that men must work for their own benefit, not for their own injury, for their gain, not their loss--the recognition that they are not beasts of burden, born to carry the weight of your misery--that you must offer them values, not wounds--that the common bond among men is not the exchange of suffering, but the exchange of goods. Money demands that you sell, not your weakness to men's stupidity, but your talent to their reason; it demands that you buy, not the shoddiest they offer, but the best that your money can find. And when men live by trade--with reason, not force, as their final arbiter--it is the best product that wins, the best performance, the man of best judgment and highest ability--and the degree of a man's productiveness is the degree of his reward. This is the code of existence whose tool and symbol is money. Is this what you consider evil?

"But money is only a tool. It will take you wherever you wish, but it will not replace you as the driver. It will give you the means for the satisfaction of your desires, but it will not provide you with desires. Money is the scourge of the men who attempt to reverse the law of causality--the men who seek to replace the mind by seizing the products of the mind.

"Money will not purchase happiness for the man who has no concept of what he wants: money will not give him a code of values, if he's evaded the knowledge of what to value, and it will not provide him with a purpose, if he's evaded the choice of what to seek. Money will not buy intelligence for the fool, or admiration for the coward, or respect for the incompetent. The man who attempts to purchase the brains of his superiors to serve him, with his money replacing his judgment, ends up by becoming the victim of his inferiors. The men of intelligence desert him, but the cheats and the frauds come flocking to him, drawn by a law which he has not discovered: that no man may be smaller than his money. Is this the reason why you call it evil?

"Only the man who does not need it, is fit to inherit wealth--the man who would make his own fortune no matter where he started. If an heir is equal to his money, it serves him; if not, it destroys him. But you look on and you cry that money corrupted him. Did it? Or did he corrupt his money? Do not envy a worthless heir; his wealth is not yours and you would have done no better with it. Do not think that it should have been distributed among you; loading the world with fifty parasites instead of one, would not bring back the dead virtue which was the fortune. Money is a living power that dies without its root. Money will not serve the mind that cannot match it. Is this the reason why you call it evil?

"Money is your means of survival. The verdict you pronounce upon the source of your livelihood is the verdict you pronounce upon your life. If the source is corrupt, you have damned your own existence. Did you get your money by fraud? By pandering to men's vices or men's stupidity? By catering to fools, in the hope of getting more than your ability deserves? By lowering your standards? By doing work you despise for purchasers you scorn? If so, then your money will not give you a moment's or a penny's worth of joy. Then all the things you buy will become, not a tribute to you, but a reproach; not an achievement, but a reminder of shame. Then you'll scream that money is evil. Evil, because it would not pinch-hit for your self-respect? Evil, because it would not let you enjoy your depravity? Is this the root of your hatred of money?

"Money will always remain an effect and refuse to replace you as the cause. Money is the product of virtue, but it will not give you virtue and it will not redeem your vices. Money will not give you the unearned, neither in matter nor in spirit. Is this the root of your hatred of money?

"Or did you say it's the love of money that's the root of all evil? To love a thing is to know and love its nature. To love money is to know and love the fact that money is the creation of the best power within you, and your passkey to trade your effort for the effort of the best among men. It's the person who would sell his soul for a nickel, who is loudest in proclaiming his hatred of money--and he has good reason to hate it. The lovers of money are willing to work for it. They know they are able to deserve it.

"Let me give you a tip on a clue to men's characters: the man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it.

"Run for your life from any man who tells you that money is evil. That sentence is the leper's bell of an approaching looter. So long as men live together on earth and need means to deal with one another--their only substitute, if they abandon money, is the muzzle of a gun.

"But money demands of you the highest virtues, if you wish to make it or to keep it. Men who have no courage, pride or self-esteem, men who have no moral sense of their right to their money and are not willing to defend it as they defend their life, men who apologize for being rich--will not remain rich for long. They are the natural bait for the swarms of looters that stay under rocks for centuries, but come crawling out at the first smell of a man who begs to be forgiven for the guilt of owning wealth. They will hasten to relieve him of the guilt--and of his life, as he deserves.

"Then you will see the rise of the men of the double standard--the men who live by force, yet count on those who live by trade to create the value of their looted money--the men who are the hitchhikers of virtue. In a moral society, these are the criminals, and the statutes are written to protect you against them. But when a society establishes criminals-by-right and looters-by-law--men who use force to seize the wealth of disarmed victims--then money becomes its creators' avenger. Such looters believe it safe to rob defenseless men, once they've passed a law to disarm them. But their loot becomes the magnet for other looters, who get it from them as they got it. Then the race goes, not to the ablest at production, but to those most ruthless at brutality. When force is the standard, the murderer wins over the pickpocket. And then that society vanishes, in a spread of ruins and slaughter.

"Do you wish to know whether that day is coming? Watch money. Money is the barometer of a society's virtue. When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion--when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing--when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors--when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you--when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice--you may know that your society is doomed. Money is so noble a medium that is does not compete with guns and it does not make terms with brutality. It will not permit a country to survive as half-property, half-loot.

"Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked, 'Account overdrawn.'

"When you have made evil the means of survival, do not expect men to remain good. Do not expect them to stay moral and lose their lives for the purpose of becoming the fodder of the immoral. Do not expect them to produce, when production is punished and looting rewarded. Do not ask, 'Who is destroying the world? You are.

"You stand in the midst of the greatest achievements of the greatest productive civilization and you wonder why it's crumbling around you, while you're damning its life-blood--money. You look upon money as the savages did before you, and you wonder why the jungle is creeping back to the edge of your cities. Throughout men's history, money was always seized by looters of one brand or another, whose names changed, but whose method remained the same: to seize wealth by force and to keep the producers bound, demeaned, defamed, deprived of honor. That phrase about the evil of money, which you mouth with such righteous recklessness, comes from a time when wealth was produced by the labor of slaves--slaves who repeated the motions once discovered by somebody's mind and left unimproved for centuries. So long as production was ruled by force, and wealth was obtained by conquest, there was little to conquer, Yet through all the centuries of stagnation and starvation, men exalted the looters, as aristocrats of the sword, as aristocrats of birth, as aristocrats of the bureau, and despised the producers, as slaves, as traders, as shopkeepers--as industrialists.

"To the glory of mankind, there was, for the first and only time in history, a country of money--and I have no higher, more reverent tribute to pay to America, for this means: a country of reason, justice, freedom, production, achievement. For the first time, man's mind and money were set free, and there were no fortunes-by-conquest, but only fortunes-by-work, and instead of swordsmen and slaves, there appeared the real maker of wealth, the greatest worker, the highest type of human being--the self-made man--the American industrialist.

"If you ask me to name the proudest distinction of Americans, I would choose--because it contains all the others--the fact that they were the people who created the phrase 'to make money.' No other language or nation had ever used these words before; men had always thought of wealth as a static quantity--to be seized, begged, inherited, shared, looted or obtained as a favor. Americans were the first to understand that wealth has to be created. The words 'to make money' hold the essence of human morality.

"Yet these were the words for which Americans were denounced by the rotted cultures of the looters' continents. Now the looters' credo has brought you to regard your proudest achievements as a hallmark of shame, your prosperity as guilt, your greatest men, the industrialists, as blackguards, and your magnificent factories as the product and property of muscular labor, the labor of whip-driven slaves, like the pyramids of Egypt. The rotter who simpers that he sees no difference between the power of the dollar and the power of the whip, ought to learn the difference on his own hide-- as, I think, he will.

"Until and unless you discover that money is the root of all good, you ask for your own destruction. When money ceases to be the tool by which men deal with one another, then men become the tools of men. Blood, whips and guns--or dollars. Take your choice--there is no other--and your time is running out."

The above is an excerpt from Atlas Shrugged, © Copyright, 1957, by Ayn Rand. It is reprinted with permission from the Estate of Ayn Rand.

Time has run out, the guy steals 50 billion and our nation's response? Send him to his room like a child instead of the heinous criminal that he is. Looter.. he ought to do us all a favor and take the cowards way out.

Muntathar al Zaidi was lucky that a journalist grabbed him first

2008-12-17T04:37:00.000-08:00

We all saw the video and incident. In this news report we get a quote from the Treasury on the incident. Let me say this: If the jack-booted thugs I met at Treasury had grabbed this guy first that his trachea and esophagus would have been used to tie a bow-tie around his neck and the agent would have been waving his live beating heart above his head in some aztec ritual still beating.

This was one of the dumbest stunts I have ever witnessed, where the video really ought to be a darwin award candidate.

These treasury employees, secret service agents train on the matts daily. They come to lunch with their pants tucked into their boots in the fashion of star-trek. Their instructors are contracted globally from the best sources, and simply stated: If these guys can reach out and touch you.. with bare hands.. you can die.

These are seriously some folks not to fuck with. I mean CIA, DIA, ONI, all these guys can be scary.. (i guess) .. not really if you understand them.. but the treasury thugs are the only ones who made me uncmfortable eating with. I mean seriously.. this outcome Muntathar al Zaidi terminated as a consequence of the agent laying his hands upon him first is likely... Keep in mind that the agent would not have thought.. Ok.. I'm going to kill this guy.. NO! It would have been a quick efficient dispatching of a threat...

I mean yes the video is compelling, but that was positively the dumbest thing I have seen short of somebody crawling into a zoo cage with dangerous animals.

Muntathar al Zaidi was lucky.... lucky that he was taken to ground by the press so that this media clip did not include his demise. Damn lucky.. don't fuck with the jack-booted thugs at Treasury.. if you do you are a fool.

the tipping point between debate-generating critique and

2008-12-16T17:12:00.000-08:00

the tipping point between debate-generating critique and “if they had only listened to me” pontification is easy to cross, and I had hoped to avoid the latter by simply refraining from attempts at the former

It is creativity, judgment and the ability to reach a goal on time that are hard to teach.

But for God's sake, don't hire these people, Brown advised. Make them temps. Otherwise, they'll just turn into more of the brown-nosing bureaucrats the agency is already infected with.

So Ok now I enter the critique with this insight: That there is an ability to hold two core psyche beliefs that are at conflict. As an example as Americans we believe that "all men are created equal" and the "rags to riches" where we are free to unlimited self-actualization.

In a similar way the Military and CIA have two counter beliefs, and they are similar. The military and CIA has a plebe system, similar to West Point or Annapolis where the belief is that all plebes are equal, where all personal character attributes are gone, same haircut, same beliefs, and in the extreme cases of boot camp, power over sleep and food, stressful positions, think military boot camp and the US Marines. (At this point we have a psyche that was supposed to be rebuilt into pride and can-do attitutude) but has a liability.. it has lost some of it's individuality and...

It is creativity, judgment and the ability to reach a goal on time that are hard to teach.

So while the goal at CIA, DIA, FBI, and other large organizations is to be spontaneous and creative, that core psyche belief.. that a round peg can be put through a square hole, that with enough marines you take hamburger hill, and the hubris that one can lose a battle but not the war.. (institutioal beliefs) peculiar to boot camp mentality... well some simply are not 'brainwashed' or institutionalized the same way.

I mean I find it interesting that many of the same techniques at Gitmo are boot camp techniques.

The point I make is an observation, is that in Intel if the 4-star general states, lets not allow facts to stand in the way of our convictions, or.. we need product to support WMD evidence in Iraqi, or if you torture enough you'll find it, or enough motivated troops will take that hill... I mean the high priority of soviet agriculture planning was the planning and not the produce.

The real point is that the thinking is not reiterative. You know by the scars on your managers hand if he puts his hand on the same hot stove more than once that he is stupid... and in a closed society.. risk aversion is... not getting your hand burnt... Might not produce anything more than showing up and not getting burnt.. might not imply anything more than pavlovian response

A tool-and-die engineer (designer) has more creatvity than most INTEL folks. I mean to say that problem solving is not a static process. But the dangerous part of the trend in thinking is the 'boot camp' mentality, where with enough "will" that the round peg will go through the square hole.. fine with me.. just make sure that your're not the red round peg.

The military has to have that psyche.. has to have the we don't leave our dead behind mentality, has to have the we might have lost the battle but will not lose the war mentality..

Spooks should not have to... but politics require the product to be what is ordered.

Bottom line, if you do not like somebody telling you what to believe, what is truth irrespective of facts.. (if politics at a regular job a civilian job irritate you) then intel is a poor career choice with the additional caveat that these people are not as smart as you might presume and that association has risks.

Military Intelligence is almost an oxymorron. In a critical circumstance your judgement can be subordinated to an idiot.. you might find yourself say Shineski saying no to Rumsfeld, or Peter Pace disagreeing with Rumsfeld over an issue. Only difference is that in a vacumn, in the shadows disagreements do not have the protection of say throwing a shoe at somebody in public offers........

I think that the intelligence agencies hire and retain what they want and that the people want to be there.. and that civillians in these positions is a bad idea. In fact I would say that bringing a civilian in close is bad for all if that person is either "prescient or intelligent."

And, more insidiously, wounded institutional pride at the C.I.A. could generate bureaucratic knife-fighting by employees who would rather see the quest fail than give credit to “amateur” operators. The safe bet is that none of this will ever happen.

What is stated above is the belief that it would be better to send another platoon up hamburger hill than call in an air strike if somebody else suggested it first.

That is the danger of mixing these folks... that right there.. and if you are really intelligent why you should consider prior to any thoughts of hanging around them.

Now I love the opening sentence: the tipping point between debate-generating critique and “if they had only listened to me” pontification is easy to cross, and I had hoped to avoid the latter by simply refraining from attempts at the former.

But Dee Illuminati don't play that shit.. if your really intelligent when the task is done,, beware. Similar to say Oppenheimer.. informed and intelligent isn't the same.

Colin Powell and Gold

2008-12-12T04:51:00.000-08:00

Powell, who says he still considers himself a Republican, said his party should also stop listening to conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh.

I have said numerous times that I remain a conservative. But the GOP has some real identity questions. There is a segment of the GOP that is the thinking voter or independent. The voter demographic college educated and higher income, who reads the news and does not get it from Rush Limbaugh. These people understand the complex nature of challenges that we as a society face and the damger of demagoguery. I understand the sentiment that Powell expressed and have seen nothing to indicate that the GOP "gets it."

I recall the Catholic Church meeting and coming to the conclusion that abuse required counseling, I mean in an effort to self-examine themselves they initially concluded that counseling was the answer, and then.. missing the point... did not choose criminal reporting of the act. It will be interesting to see how far down the GOP must go before change is forced upon them.

Speaking of going down, Gold is next. I differ with Rogers and feel that demand will continue to erode and that capital to purchase gold will erode. Short-term I see a looming drop in prices and see the supposed holders of physical gold in loss aversion. The arguments and explanations get more bizzare, but in a deflationary market gold goes down and buying stock in Walmart as an example or Dollar General, even Redhat software makes more sense.

In both cases, with making an assesmnet of the circumstances it is interesting to see how some insist that the message was not heard or understood instead of the message rejected.

On an Elliot Wave pattern (which might be appropo for bubbles, speculation, and emotive markets) with no connection to earnings.. as an example Walmart produces earnings.. gold does not.. it is static trade out of earnings and hedge to inflation, then as this deflation rolls on.. It is going to take the real ass-burn here soon.

Steven Chu

2008-12-10T17:41:00.000-08:00

Steven Chu hmmm this is not a "Brownie, you're doing a heckuva job" appointment. I mean not to dump on Michael D. Brown, but instead observe that Chu seems to have a passion for the topic.

I mean, compare the bio's yourself.

It is as if these appointments seem to indicate that qualifications matter.

Obama Meet the Press and Energy

2008-12-07T07:06:00.001-08:00

I think the focus on efficiency is a good move. While not as comprehensive as an energy plan as true believers would like to see it is the most efficient first step. If government buildings can realize heating and cooling efficiencies with lighting connected to smart systems, we can take that industry stimulus into the private sector which makes this nation more competitive in manufacturing and job growth.

It is the correct first step and long overdue.

I'm also impressed with a president's ablility to speak without a controlled press conference. That leads me to belive that he grasps the issues.

I'm also impressed that the topic of terrorism was approached as if there is a connection in a big picture. That is to say, that there seemed to be a narrative (fair or not) that Iraq, Iran, Pakistan were seperate issues. Certainly the argument to go to war was connected in Iraq and Afghanastan. And then an emerging narrative that the two were seperate. It is important to have a message to the US public that addresses the larger issue. That was well handled.

The smoking question was poor decorum, in hard times is it important if the POTUS has crutches? Really, with so many challenges was that tabloid question necessary?

Get video

Shinseki tapped to head Veterans Affairs

2008-12-06T17:24:00.000-08:00

I guess President Elect Obama meant it when he said he wanted people comfortable with talking truth to power. I think however that many people see this in the purely politcal lense. Shinseki is a no-nonsense pragmatist and able administrator who can define priorities, pursue objectives, and if required speak prophetically upon poor policy.

I think that this is a wonderful appointment.

Shinseki has an impressibe bio: his entry at Wiki.

I cannot think of a more focused and dedicated advocate for the disabled. This is a man who will not retreat in making the most of his resources and getting his objectives performed.

This was a damn good choice. I guess that this signals that Pres Elect Obama has made a commitment to veterans and genuinely doesn't need 'yes men' for his ego. I mean candidly this has to be the case. Can you imagine a public disagreement with Shinseki on funding?

Another individual whom I feel deserves recognition for leadership, uncommon valor is General Peter Pace. Ideas are powerful, and his ideas about the values and conduct of professional soldiers was instrumental in rejecting the wrong-headed notion that torture and abuse was permissable by uniformed professionals.

On November 29, 2005, Gen. Pace was present at a press conference given by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, where Rumsfeld said that "the United States does not have a responsibility" to prevent torture by Iraqi officials. Pace disagreed with Rumsfeld, saying "It is the absolute responsibility of every U.S. service member, if they see inhumane treatment being conducted, to intervene, to stop it".[6][7]

Both of these Generals took the high ground in a battle with Donald Rumsfeld and exhibited courage in doing so. Both put their careers second to the institutions that they served.

Both have the right stuff.

Yes we have no plan!

2008-12-06T10:30:00.000-08:00

http://www.veoh.com/videos/v16046394pmWddBBn


ENERGY INDEPENDENCE IN 2009
January 17th & 18th
at the West Palm Beach Marriott  and
Florida Atlantic University, Jupiter FL

The first night begins at 6pm with a Gala Banquet at the Marriott Hotel 
in West Palm Beach, and features a keynote address by Edwin Black, 
best-selling author of The Plan.

“The blood, guts, and feathers of it.”

2008-12-04T04:29:00.000-08:00

T. Boone hates getting misquoted, so let me help you out. It is not as if T. Boone had said of Stephen Moore “A fool with a plan can beat a genius without a plan”
So I will, Stephen Moore is a "damn fool" and no genuis and as the economy illustrates: “A fool with a plan can beat a genius without a plan”

Stephen Moore (economist), Economist and former president of the Club for Growth and senior fellow at the Cato Institute "claims" to have a plan, his plan is that there is no plan and that having no plans allows the markets to make the right choice.

I mean pin this guy down on this: His plan is no plan!

Now lets look at what this guy is saying and think closely, it is a reiteration of "don't let the facts stand in the way of your convictions."

But that is what a portion of the Republican party has become, a proposition that a position is superior to a policy. As you wonder why the post invasion of Iraq was such a debacle keep in mind that this faction had some propositions and a position before the Iraq invasion, then invaded Iraq where the Pentagon had a plan, and then there was no plan! A proposition and a position is not a plan!

I heard somebody yapping last night about Reagen and the 1980's. And I thought to myself, ok the guy has a propositiony, but what changed and happened? So I asked: name me three manufacturers within 50 miles. And the yapping ceased and the wheels turned and he finally reach 100 miles away to grab one, then another, and then another. I didn't bother to drive home the trade deficeit, budget deficeit, or the he was busy yapping cutting taxes to spurr supply-side spending and I had to ask, why not just 'cut a check' direct to China? We don't manufacture or supply anything that can circulate a supply-side equation. But still yapping he continued, when I asked: Is inflation a tax he paused.. and then in the genuine spirit of never allow facts to stand in the way of your opinions.. he skipped the question and insisted we spend our way out of the crisis by not paying our bills and selling more assets to foreigners? The stupidity was appalling and there he was yapping....

What gets me when you meet the "let the market make the rules" type is that they want to sell their mother after they sold say Chinese National Oil Company (CNOOC) bid to buy a controlling interest in UNOCAL, Loral satellite technology, and this is not zenophobia but instead common sense.

The recognition that supply side economics works only when there is something supplied, and not in the case where something is always sold and borrowed.

I mean honestly.. has anybody said the obvious, save, work harder, be more productive, as productivity means.. 'doing more with less?'

T. Boone gets it.. wants to produce locally, create a suplly side economy, and supply our own energy. And minus the jobs and the change in the amount of oil imported since 1980 (Reagen) and 2009 that is what is needed!

But rest assured that those who claim that no-plan is the plan are still at Wall Street. Main Street is now heading in the opposite direction.

The last Eight years are dest summed up as "It was the lack of a plan stupid, it was a lack of plan." Or simply stated a "miserable failure." Listen carefully, on social security, these guys wanted to put the money in wall street where there is no plan, on derivatives.. there is no plan, on the CDO's no plan, on Itaq.. no plan.

MISERABLE FAILURE(S)

Center for a New American Security

2008-12-02T19:38:00.000-08:00

There seems to be an emphasis on telling truth to power, pragmatism, and looking beyond the event horizon for "equities" or commanding heights.

We have some genuine challenges but one item I see that is consistent is the energy issue.

I think that if McCain had tapped Woolsey (not that Woolsey would have accepted) but hypothetically.. if the GOP had tried a departure from the status-quo that they might have won. The point is that Palin was kind of positioned as a gas-station to the 48 states, and of course there was that Alaskan pipe-line that was being built, and that made the GOP well Mavericky.

But even the oil companies knew that the market wanted change, the oil companies have their own think-tanks and they can tell truth to power as long as they keep the communications internal, and BP went beyond petroleum, other CEO's took a year off and toured America, but the GOP?? Well they missed the memo.

Drill Baby Drill was almost tailored to propose that we could nationalize the ubiquitous commodity oil and then put it in a mavericky pipeline that didn't exist, and then deliver it to the lower 48 who hasn't eaten moose. Or it was a repressed reference to fornication, I think the former message was the intent, I can tell the truth here with a waterboard as my witness.

But.. what if.. what if.. McCain had been a Maverick and teamed with Woolsey with a real Mavericky plan to transform our energy and national security policy? I mean talking real change????

We will never know. As a registered republican I was disappointed that the GOP did not lead on this effort, and I guess that is why we need more pragmatism than mavericky now...

Thats the truth irrespective of if it was populare or not.

Alaska oil will not be nationalized, there is no magical pipeline to the nearest walmart, we can't drill our way out of the national security challenge of energy.

I guess we needed a real plan?

I guess now that sentiment doesn't count as maverick.

James L Jones

2008-12-01T18:28:00.000-08:00

Barack Obama and Robert Gates

2008-11-30T19:21:00.000-08:00

I don't have any comments on Mumbai with the exception to say that it is easy to become sensationalist in the wake of events such as this, but typically not very constructive. As a matter of fact, on 9-11 I found it interesting those who stayed at the office versus those who went on an emotional holidy instead. Cool leadership and pragmatic responses are the litmus between the manager-type-politician who takes the next weather vane change and jumps aboard, and the leader who looks further into the future to take the right step.

So what kind of person has Robert Gates proven to be? Well lets not compare Gates to Rumsfeld, that isn't fair to Gates. And I'll not pander to a position, a title, or the cult of personality.. but let us observe that the type of leadership that makes a university president possible, creating concensus, listening, building support, is in actuallity what is needed in the current position with a background as outlined below.

Robert Michael Gates (born September 25, 1943) is currently serving as the 22nd United States Secretary of Defense. He took office on December 18, 2006.[2] Prior to this, Gates served for 26 years in the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Council, and under President George H. W. Bush as Director of Central Intelligence. Before he joined the CIA, he served with the United States Air Force (USAF).[3] After leaving the CIA, Gates became president of Texas A&M University and was a member of several corporate boards. Gates also served as a member of the Iraq Study Group, the bipartisan commission co-chaired by James A. Baker III and Lee Hamilton, that has studied the Iraq War. He was also the first pick to serve as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security when it was created following the September 11, 2001 attacks, but he declined the appointment in order to remain President of Texas A&M University.[4]

Gates accepted the nomination as Secretary of Defense position on November 8, 2006, replacing Donald Rumsfeld. He was confirmed with bipartisan support.[5] In a 2007 profile written by former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, Time named Gates one of the year's most influential people.[5] In 2008, Gates was named one of America's Best Leaders by U.S. News & World Report.[6] President-elect Barack Obama has offered Gates the continued position as Defense Secretary under his administration, and Gates has reportedly accepted.[7] This will make Gates one of the few persons to hold a Cabinet-level position under two Presidents of different parties.

Now lets call em what they are: Judith Miller.. well here is an example where

Judith Miller (born January 2, 1948), is an American journalist. Miller, based in Washington D.C., was a prominent New York Times reporter with access to top U.S. government officials. Her coverage of these officials, especially regarding the Bush administration’s conclusions about Iraq’s alleged Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Program and her involvement in the Plame Affair, made her a conspicuous media personality. The work that Miller and Michael Gordon did in presenting the case for WMDs has been proven false. The New York Times apologized publicly for their poor reporting. Ms. Miller lost her job over these reporting blunders though Mr. Gordon has remained a reporter for the New York Times. Miller announced her retirement from The New York Times on November 9, 2005.

Judith Miller is what I hope India and Pakistan avoid, for as Judith writes about Gates, Gates writes of the personal and political toll of the top job on the presidents he served. He more than other civil servants knows that presidents need the best advice they can get. “The elation of victory is fleeting and the burden of responsibility is enduring,” he writes. “This is why character counts for so much in a president.”

Well let me say this, and this is why I choose this topic, Robert Gates has character, you Judy do not. Nor did Donald Rumsfeld. I think it is a testament of character that even those who lack it can recognize it as Judy Miller's blog demonstrates. I think what is often in absence is character, even when things are tough, when one is asked to tough, character counts. You need somebody who gets the facts correct and doesn't go on emotive holidays. Gates was a good choice, Pakistan and India will be scrambling to find somebody of Gates character if they behave like say.. Rumsfeld and Judith Miller, and that is a warning from the event horizon to think twice before saying anything once on Mumbai.

The story of stuff

2008-11-29T07:08:00.000-08:00

http://www.storyofstuff.com/index.html

The commanding heights of the New American Century V

2008-11-27T05:42:00.000-08:00

The last commanding height of an economy is the environment. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Mason Diamond illustrates the concept in the most compelling argument yet put forth. All of the Global Trends reports I cite in my profile also address the same issue of environment.

If you look back at the Global Trends report issued in 1997, which peered ahead to 2010, the nearest time to our own, you can see the problems of prediction. That report said of Russia: "The erosion in the authority of the central Russian government that has occurred will not be easily reversed."

Well hold on a second here, Global Trends is not in the business of being psychic, these are "trends" that are indeed coming true.

In this section the fifth commanding height of the NIC report is illustrated.

It is not as if Diamond read the report and then decided to write a book, or that I grabbed what was in the Commanding Heights PBS documentary and blogged, or is this an issue of if the predictions put forth by the 2010 report all came true.

Take it as an assured look into the future from the perspective of facts and the past, that these are the challenges that are before us.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=fisheries+collapse

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=deforestation+collapse

Or read about a hungry world with inadequate water and food.

Over many years a person I admire greatly looked far into the future and did what he could to mitigate a damage that cannot be undone.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=fisheries+gilchrest

This was the correct stewardship one would expect from a Republican and what is needed to effectively manage an economy. This is leadership that looks beyond the event horizon and does the right thing today for tomorrow. It is the essence of "getting it right."

Read Collapse, read the NIC reports, support people such as Wayne so that your future is more viable. Think and stop behaving like a locust, think and stop imagining that the solution is not local, think and stop blaming others, think and come to understand that these challenges require cooperation.

If you think the costs of a bailout for the derivatives markets is high, keep in mind that collapsed fisheries are even higher, and no ammount of money can correct the damage once done.

Wake up to the commanding heights and recognize those who know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

The environment is the final commanding height.

The commanding heights of the New American Century IV

2008-11-18T19:27:00.000-08:00

The Commanding Height of food is important in that it creates the societal stability that consitutes society. I guess you have to look at a case where societies fail to meet this commanding height, use your own historical example; the French Revolution, North Korea, Haiti, or any other failed nation state or revolution.

The commanding height of food is realized in it's absence, where a ruling class or government was so irresponsible as to allow a food crisis to occur. This can be due to environmental crisis or drought, it can be from poor central planning, but really it is a lack of an understanding that food is a commanding height and a multitude of approaches to meet it.

Recently there has been a trend to open markets that do two things, reduce food production locally, reduce employment, create trade imbalances, create civil striffe, and prevent local currencies from circulating. Free trade advocates point to the short-term advantages of less expensive imports. But that approach leads to imbalances that really make exporters of grains and foods similar to Opec. It is a commanding height yeilded to another.

Thirty years ago, Haiti raised nearly all the rice it needed. What happened?

In 1986, after the expulsion of dictator Jean Claude “Baby Doc” Duvalier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loaned Haiti $24.6 million in desperately needed funds. (Baby Doc had raided the treasury on the way out.)

But in order to get the IMF loan, Haiti was required to reduce tariff protections for rice and other agricultural products and some industries to open up its markets to foreign competition. The United States has by far the largest voice in decisions of the IMF.

Doctor Paul Farmer was in Haiti then and saw what happened. “Within less than two years, it became impossible for Haitian farmers to compete with what they called ‘Miami rice.’ The whole local rice market in Haiti fell apart as cheap, US-subsidized rice, some of it in the form of ‘food aid,’ flooded the market. There was violence, ‘rice wars’ and lives were lost.”

“American rice invaded the country,” recalled Charles Suffrard, a leading rice grower in Haiti in an interview with the Washington Post in 2000. By 1987 and 1988, there was so much rice coming into the country that many stopped working the land.

Gerard Jean-Juste, a Haitian priest who has been the pastor at St. Claire and an outspoken human rights advocate, agrees. “In the 1980s, imported rice poured into Haiti, below the cost of what our farmers could produce it. Farmers lost their businesses. People from the countryside started losing their jobs and moving to the cities. After a few years of cheap imported rice, local production went way down.”

Still, the international business community was not satisfied. In 1994, as a condition for US assistance in returning to Haiti to resume his elected presidency, Jean-Bertrand Aristide was forced by the United States, the IMF and the World Bank to open up the markets in Haiti even more.

But Haiti is the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere. What reason could the United States have in destroying the rice market of this tiny country?

Haiti is definitely poor. The US Agency for International Development reports that the annual per capita income is less than $400. The United Nations reports that life expectancy in Haiti is 59, while in the United States it is 78.

Over 78 percent of Haitians live on less than $2 a day, more than half live on less than $1 a day.

Yet, Haiti has become one of the very top importers of rice from the United States. The US Department of Agriculture 2008 numbers show Haiti is the third largest importer of US rice—at over 240,000 metric tons of rice.

Rice is a heavily subsidized business in the United States. Rice subsidies in the United States totaled $11 billion from 1995 to 2006. One producer alone, Riceland Foods Inc. of Stuttgart Arkansas, received more than $500 million in rice subsidies between 1995 and 2006.

The Cato Institute has reported that rice is one of the most heavily supported commodities in the United States—with all three different subsidies averaging over $1 billion a year since 1998 and projected to average more than $700 million a year through 2015. The result? “Tens of millions of rice farmers in poor countries find it hard to lift their families out of poverty because of the lower, more volatile prices caused by the interventionist policies of other countries.”

In addition to three different subsidies for rice farmers in the United States, there are also direct tariff barriers of 3 to 24 percent, reports Daniel Griswold of the Cato Institute—the same type of protection, though much higher, that the United States and the IMF required Haiti to eliminate in the 1980s and 1990s.

US protection for rice farmers goes even further. A 2006 story in the Washington Post found that the federal government had paid at least $1.3 billion in subsidies for rice and other crops since 2000 to individuals who do no farming at all, including $490,000 to a Houston surgeon who owned land near Houston that once grew rice.

And it is not only the Haitian rice farmers who have been hurt.

Paul Farmer saw it happen to the sugar growers as well. “Haiti, once the world’s largest exporter of sugar and other tropical produce to Europe, began importing even sugar—from US-controlled sugar production in the Dominican Republic and Florida. It was terrible to see Haitian farmers put out of work. All this sped up the downward spiral that led to last month’s food riots.”

After the riots and protests, President Rene Preval of Haiti agreed to reduce the price of rice, which was selling for $51 for a 110 pound bag, to $43 dollars for the next month. No one thinks a one-month’s fix will do anything but delay the severe hunger pains a few weeks.

Haiti is far from alone in this crisis. The Economist reports a billion people worldwide live on $1 a day. The US-backed Voice of America reported that about 850 million people were suffering from hunger worldwide before the latest round of price increases.

Thirty three countries are at risk of social upheaval because of rising food prices, World Bank President Robert Zoellick told the Wall Street Journal. When countries have many people who spend half to three-quarters of their daily income on food, “there is no margin of survival.”

The point here is that there is Commanding Heights in the economy and that a government has FAILED when it does support them. A populace has no OPTION but to revolt and turn to violence when their own government enacts polices that starve them, unemploy them, and do nothing but return a pump-n-dump profit. If you are hungry and the rich have capitulated this commanding height of a society, then eat the rich!

It is the role of genuine leaders of industry and politics to hekp create a better world. Google CEO Eric Schmidt Calls For Innovation Bailout and supports two of the five commadning heights. He supports the information and energy commanding heights. While some say don't eat the rich, tax them, I think that responsible CEO's know that there are limits to hubris and that wealth is the reflection not only of personal accomplishments but their impact on the world around them, Gates and Buffet have done much with monies to help meet some challenges that are beyond conventional thinking, such as a seed vault.
At least Bill Gates invested in protecting a commanding height when most were way to ignorant and complacent, (not hungry) to consider it.

The sad fact is that many of our CEO's are that, business managers and not leaders, frankly better material for an object lesson of greed punished by a guillotine than spending monies on seeking energy efficieny such as google has done with geothermal.

You will know them by their works, if the politicians sell out their citizens and promote the destruction of local food production, revolt at the ballot.

Food is a commanding height.

The commanding heights of the New American Century III

2008-11-15T06:38:00.000-08:00

The third commanding heights is Energy and might well be the first, but of course looking at an oil rich country and an oil poor country will that this is not always the case.

The last tow segments of the first part of the Commanding Heights in the battle of ideas has none other than Newt Gingrich self-congratulating himself for a circumstance where Opec has maintained a commanding heights on energy while deregulation of energy in the west has criplled our nations.

Commanding Heights The Heights Go Up For Sale and the final chapter raise some distrubing questions.

I guess the first is why is it that Newt feels that it is preferable to have an impression that Hayek could not do a news conference or be on the Today show and that the message or idea's of Hayek were best translated by Reagen? There is a message that somehow that these ideas had to be sold or spun, and that the public was benefited somehow. I ask this question, suppose Hayek looked at the current circumstance and said, "that was not what I had had in mind." Deregulation and the depositing of commanding heights industries has not been exactly good for the economy in some areas, most notably in energy and water.

The final chapter asks the question that we are currently faced with, this all sounds good, "but what happens if there is a global recession/depression or war?" that is now what we are facing.

In effect OPEC meets and decides on quotas, and maintains a commanding heights, while deregulation in the west has evaporated pools of capital to meet national security requirements of energy. Is this a battle of ideas? I guess I have to wonder if this is the core issue with muslim and christian nations? If deregulation and non-government ownership of industries (un-nationalizing) of commanding heghts industries is a sound economic idea, why did Saudia Arabia not do it?

This type of thinking is often performed when the assertion is the conclusion, or not allowing facts to stand in the way of your convictions. Two months removed from September 15 where a global meltdown in unregulated markets occured, one must ask, did these people celebrate much to soon? And has their demands to nationalize the bad debts essentially reiterated the fact that they are in fact socialists? Perhaps in the wake of the Carter years and the oil embargo era, the fact is that the west adopted a pump-n-dump economy and that certain politicians "spun" the idea of Hayek to meet short term goals and profits that have eroded our economies far greater than the socialist policies that they claimed to oppose?

Let's look at the commanding heights of energy. Has the deregulation worked? If so why has Constellation Energy avoided bankruptcy by being bought by Buffet? Where is the capital to build the smart transmission grid? It is as if you are asked to watch that commanding height narrative and ignore the fact that in 1965 OPEC was formed as a commanding height. Hayek must be spinning is his grave like a Wankel rotary engine as the debacle of unregulated markets have destroyed the economies he cared about.

As you watch the video of Thatcher crushing coal, a national security interest and commanding height when the UK was isolated and embargo of WWII, or as the dollar was unpegged by Nixon, or as Carter was held hostage by Opec, Reagan Iran Contra, two gulf-wars, (and the narrative heralded the Falklans conflict) and ignored Opec and the gulf wars, you have to wonder if your leg is being pissed upon?

Our economies didn't change because capitalists suddenly read Hayek or as a consequence that capitalist love government intervebntion in their interests, where tax payer money sells assets at bargain price, or buys losing assets at above mark to market, no that never changed, what changed is that we LOST THE COMMANDING HEIGHT OF ENERGY.

CIA, NSA, WSJ or the PBS documentary isn't gonna tell you this, and some glib spinning by discredited politicians will not either. But that is the fact. Boone Pickens will tell you this fact but focus on a dilluted message, Cheney and Co. pretended to be oil men, and were, that is market-oriented-oil-men, and after a decade leave this nation in worse case than when Reagen and Thatcher capitulated.

But the truth is this, we need as a commanding heights of an electrical grid that is intelligent and can bridge the transformation from oil so that we have an industrial base that can meet jobs at home and national security abroad.

Empirical data shows that energy from draft animals, to rivers, wind and sail, water mills, oil, electricity, all affect a society economic health through out history. And you would have to believe the narrative presented by some that that commanding height had somehow changed because somebody wrote a book, which was spun by politicians, and we find ourselves in a circumstance where the proposition that unregulated markets is no KNOWN to be false.

We are on the cusp of global recession, probable depression, in wars abroad, and the assumption that there is no commanding heights and deregulation evident in a lack of a coherent energy policy and the debacle on walls street where each day a new supplicant for a socialist bailout appears.

Make no mistake about it, the loss of the commanding heights of energy in the west is the cause of economic woes. Take the charts of importation of oil and overlay them upon the deficiets and you cannpt escape this fact excluding wars.

“Without the slightest doubt, the technology for a hydrogen economy exists or can be developed in reasonable time. Also, hydrogen is an appropriate energy carrier for particular niche applications, or it may become an important medium for electricity storage with reversible fuel cells. But hydrogen can never establish itself as a dominant energy carrier.

It has to be fabricated from high grade energy and it has to compete with high grade energy in the market place. Hydrogen cannot win this fight against its own energy source. Physics is eternal and cannot be changed by man. Therefore, a “Hydrogen Economy” has no past, no present and no future. The road to sustainability leads to an “Electron Economy”. ”

Does a Hydrogen Economy Make Sense? Ulf Bossel, Ph.D. European Fuel Cell Forum

As a national security priority, as a means to create jobs, we need a new apollo project similar to the Rural Electrification Act of 1936 we need to power an economy as well as manage it. Make no mistake about it, and serious analysis performed postmortem will show the west's markets failed not because we didn't "kick their ass and steal the gas" or we were not resolved sufficiently to oppose Islam, but instead because the greed associated with deregulation blocked common sense nationals security issues and that the attitude had become "lets not allow facts to stand in the way of our convictions" and energy as a commanding height was ignored.

NO nation through out history has prospered without energy sources, the supposition that this is not a commanding height is an economic issue that cannot be argued. Stating that private industry will meet national security objectives, create the capital for a smart grid, did not happen. The profits were siphoned off from our society and now the TAXPAYER money as Thatcher decried is now at risk.

How dare you presume the intellectual dishonesty?

There is no spinning away the culpability.

The commanding heights of the New American Century II

2008-11-13T16:47:00.000-08:00

The second commanding height of the new American century is communications, it is a battle of ideas. What you will see as you watch the Commanding Hieghts is the rejection and acceptance of ideas where change signals success or failure. You will see new ideas rejected and scorned as the sigmoid curve of change evokes itself upon circumstances.

You do not have to buy the commanding heights, you can watch it online here. This broadcast is 101 required viewing for institutions such as the IMF and World Bank.

The commanding height beyond what Lenin described them as is the battle for ideas of how socities should function. That battle now is being played out on the internet in the newest chapter of this ongoing struggle. The McCain campaign in 2000 first tapped into this phenomenon, Howard Dean tried a run with it, so did Ron Paul, and Barack Obama was the first succesful candidate to succesfully execute and coordinate the internet as part of a succesful campaign.

But now the internet is under attack and a battleground as important as the high seas and littoral water on which commerce is conducted. State sponsored hacking and assymetric attacks have made the internet a place of opportunity and conflict. Take your own pick of where a challenge in computer security resides, but the real fact is this. We currently have agreements were COTS products like Microsoft's opeerating system is provided to say (as an example) China so that the government can verify that the software has no back doors. This source code that is provided is of course the basis for the back doors.

The commanding heights of information will be when the verification of security is known by all.

Now I know that the NSA and those who have a reliance on auditing and tracking information will not like this supposition. But an economy and a culture has more to lose than gained when security and transparency are not promoted.

George Tenet made probably his best speech at Georgetown when he observed (pre-911), and I paraphrase, that the open source intellignece and internet has made the idea of a central repository of intelligence an idea of the past. Unless it is the intent to take a society to POL POT where during his time in power Pol Pot imposed a version of agrarian collectivization whereby city dwellers were relocated to the countryside to work in collective farms and forced labor projects with the goal of restarting civilization in "Year Zero". You should promote innovation and communication to increases commerce. The dark ages, Pol Pot, North Korea, all the closed societies where lack of an education and dogma supplant reason have as a consequence poorly functioning economies.

So similar to the statement by Bill Clinton and his observation, heh.. Globalism is a fact, will it be on par positive or negative? is the same question that needs to be asked of the internet and communication.

Not only has there got to be free commerce on the seas, there has to be free commerce of ideas. The commanding heights society will have to perform both. It is a battle of ideas and as we will witness watching the commanding heights, is that similar to the Gutenberg press change is upon us.

I think any empirical study would show that where the printing press proliferated so did commerce. The battle for ideas did not start when the PBS series picked it up in their narrative, it has been going on for quite some time.

But the succesful leader and succesful economy will endorse the internet and communication and information security and privacy as a vehicle of strength, not an obstacle to retreat from.

The library of Alexandria is at our finger tips, this is a core commanding height where efficient communications and data that is secure is available. This communication challenge is the second commanding height. The destruction of the new digital library will coincide with the destruction of that society taht does so. Two of five commanding heights that are essential is naval power and communications and information, failure at these two ruin cultures and economies.

The commanding heights of the New American Century

2008-11-12T16:35:00.000-08:00

PNAC had a "new american century" and as many mass movements it was short-lived and evoked a hegellian counter-swing that constitutes the result of the event. To understand that phenomenon one must read Eric Hoffer The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements.

That said the Commanding Heights are as follows after you watch this introduction. I'm going to do five total in five days.

As an economist I'm surprised that we are trying to spur supply side spending and stave off deflation and not addressing some important commanding heights.

One of these commanding heights is a navy that we will need to ensure that commerce is facilitated. This would require possibly 50 DDG-993 KIDD-class destroyers. The commanding Height value is that these ships would create jobs, be able to arbitrate disputes in the arctic ocean over resources, return the US to a stance where we could respond to 3 national security events at the same time, and are required to meet the challenge of piracy and an increasingly larger number of shuttle tankers as large megafields are replaced with more smaller fields dispursed through out the globe. In addition these vessels require steel, and as a national security requirement we as a nation need to create some jobs and get into the business of melting old steel and creating new steel from it. I can envision the first Hyperion small scale nuclear reactor to power a new state of the art steel mill as a matter of national security, and doing so in 4 years. Make no mistake about it, seventy percent of the earth is water and that is where the pirates and the assymetric threats have been historically to nations. No nation has been a strong nation when they lost the commanding height's of the sea. To create jobs, to create a product as a result of the effort to stave of deflation, this nation as a matter of national security and to maintain the commanding heights must commit to shipbuilding for the purposes of national defense and safe transport of commerce. Logistically we need to be able to ensure that commerce is uninterupted in a time of national security.

As a nation we should name one destroyer of a new class for each of the states, keep 5 in drydock under continual improvement, and three groups of 15 ready deployed off of this nations coasts to be deployable globally in one week. These craft should also have pod type capability for peace time missions such as hospital ships and water to shore water and power generation. These vessels should be the image of peace first and foremost and be employed on a zero tolerance of piracy upon international trade.

We need the jobs, we need the ships, we need to melt down the old heavy US autos rusting accross America in a state of the art steel mill and get down to the business of creating jobs, meeting national defense, and staving off deflation while keeping commerce and logistical lanes open.

This is a commanding hieght of a high priority.

Obama take notice the nfl network blackout and Thanksgiving taken hostage by greed

2008-11-12T04:22:00.000-08:00

The NFL has an unusual Federal anti-trust exemption that lets them run what amounts to a football monopoly. However, the NFL Network, owned by the league, is an attempt to extort this anti-trust exemption and gouge consumers and the audience during hard times.

Yes when millions are on the dole, the NFL NETWORK extends their greedy hands into the homes on a national holiday and prohibits the viewing of a game.

When asked on TV what Obama would do for sports he answered have a national playoff for college football. That would be nice, but what I would like to see is the POTUS give us back what has been taken from the public, football on Thanksgiving!

The POTUS has to decide where the limits of corporate greed end?

A good starting point is to look into the traditional Federal anti-trust exemption and then inquire if the NFL NETWORK is in the spirit of this Federal anti-trust exemption?

I think any fair minded person would conclude that it is not.

Yes amidst the foreclosures, amidst the downturn in the economy, admidst the expectations that consumers will spend less this holiday season, the NFL by fiat has demanded this holiday season that the consumer pay more as a consequence of the Federal anti-trust exemption.

Sounds strangely American, just the type of America that the public voted 'NO' to in the last election.

So pay attention carefully, the pigs are at the trough in the NFL.

I would like to see the teams nationalized, where the cities who pay for the stadiums are liberated from the greed of these owners and to return the sport to the public.

I would especially like to see this happen in Miami.

Yeah, let me say it again, greed stole football from Thanksgiving. We should care as this corporate greed is the problem and not the solution as we have been told.

Ask the unemplyed, ask the newly foreclosed homeless, if this type of capitalism is what you want?

Andy Harris calls Frank Kratovil to concede

2008-11-11T15:03:00.000-08:00

I'll let this go, as I know that Mr. Kratovil is sincere in wanting to get down to business and be the common sense congressman we know that he will be. But I really dislike Andy Harris his behavior was a character defect that simply should not be rewarded with higher office. His accusations and distortions of Wayne were shameless, taking down websites after the election that slandered Wayne and then moving right into suggesting that Frank took kickbacks as a DA.

Out of respect to Wayne and Frank's decorum and having to have dealt with Mr. Harris and what I know is their genuine concern for the district above pointing out what kind of campaign Harris ran, I'm happy that Frank won, that he will follow the 'traditional way' of how things are done in MD, and be a person who while I might not agree with his every vote, it will be a vote nonetheless never questioned.

Congratulations Frank, I have allot of optomism with your taking this office.

Kratovil Declares Victory, Harris Concedes
By KEIRA BENSON
(DELMARVA -- WMDT) 11/11/2008

He says, "I intend to do what in many respects is what I think Congressman Gilchrest did for many years and that is be an independent vote for the people of this District."

Once in office, Kratovil says he'll tackle the economy by pushing for a balanced budget amendment. But he says the most significant issue he'll face is balancing the interests of the industries in the District with the necessity of protecting the Chesapeake Bay. Something his supporters are confident he'll accomplish.

Kratovil Supporter Cindy Schwartz says, "The people of this District know you don't have to choose environment or economy, you can have both. Frank made that really clear."

Tuesday morning Republican candidate Andy Harris called Kratovil to concede. The conversation lasted less than a minute, but Kratovil described it as "cordial."

Harris says, "We vigorously debated many issues throughout the campaign, but now it's time to come together as Americans to solve the many problems facing this Country."

Harris waited for over 4,000 provisional ballots to be counted before conceding. As for what's next, Harris says he will continue to serve as a State Senator. As for another run in the future, he says, "Never, say never."

MY COMMENT: LET IT BE NEVER

While it was a disappointing day for Senator Harris, it was an exciting day for now Congressman-Elect Frank Kratovil. Tuesday he held a press conference to thank his supporters and look towards the future.

Kratovil Supporter Mike Eaves says, "He'll take the people of this District to Washington and he'll make us proud."

Many of Congressman-Elect Frank Kratovil's strongest supporters watched as he and his youngest made their way to the podium Tuesday. When he stepped up to the microphone, he was humble.

Kratovil says, "For those who supported me and voted for me, I will do my best to show you your support was warranted. For those of you that did not, I'll do my best to earn your support."

Kratovil will be the first Democrat to fill the seat in 18-years. But he says he won't go to Washington to follow any particular party.

He says, "I intend to do what in many respects is what I think Congressman Gilchrest did for many years and that is be an independent vote for the people of this District."

Once in office, Kratovil says he'll tackle the economy by pushing for a balanced budget amendment. But he says the most significant issue he'll face is balancing the interests of the industries in the District with the necessity of protecting the Chesapeake Bay. Something his supporters are confident he'll accomplish.

Kratovil Supporter Cindy Schwartz says, "The people of this District know you don't have to choose environment or economy, you can have both. Frank made that really clear."

Kratovil also talked about his plans to improve care for veterans and overhaul the energy policy. As for his current position as Queen Anne's County State's Attorney, he says he has two Deputy State's Attorneys who are interested. But he says the Circuit Court Judge will ultimately choose an Interim State's Attorney.

Opportunity versus fear

2008-11-11T04:39:00.000-08:00

The national narrative has been focused on fear for almost a decade, and making progress against fear is difficult. In fact when you think of it, opportunity or optomism is the replacement for fear.

We have been talking about rougue nations, WMD, terrorists, color coded fear levels, and meanwhile real progress on oportunity has lagged.

Where are the alternative energy sources, the Hyperion mini nuclear plants, the solar investments, the wind investments, the new Volt car?

While it is important to focus on cleaning up the issues around Gitmo we as a nation need to remember that the referendum on change was also a vote for hope. A hope that there was a reason to be optomistic.

The narrative of fear is the GOP talking point but part of the psyche of a minority of this nation, given an opportunity of optomism these people can come on board. I read an interesting approach of the Kingdom to terrorists, they supplant fear with a programme of integrating fearful and alienated people back into the mainstream.

Manchurian Candidates, Saudi Style

I will return to a set of issues that are the "commanding heights" of an American society. But any organization that spends the majority of it's resources on fear will miss the opportunities while it is distracted. We are a nation that is in a sprint race with the rest of the globe. We need to be on guard against nefarious threats and assymetric attacks, but we cannot allow that threat to turn into a public narrative that precludes opportunity in global trade and economics.

If the next POTUS adopts and endorses the same narrative that the GOP has for the last 8 years, then the next 8 years will further erode our socity similar to the zenophobic policies of say North Korea.

We are either a democracy with human rights as a core principal, the home of the free and brave, or we are the home of the fearful and zenophobe, and tossed aside some freedoms as well.

But if the next POTUS focuses on these fears and not the opportunities, we as a society will further erode. We have nothing to fear but fear itself.

"it was worse than a crime, it was a mistake."

2008-11-09T08:46:00.000-08:00

The U.S. State Department said Friday the Georgian attack in South Ossetia last August was a mistake, but that it did not justify Russia's large-scale intervention. The comments follow a critical newspaper assessment of the Tbilisi government's role in the crisis. VOA's David Gollust reports from the State Department.

Yes! "it was worse than a crime, it was a mistake."

On the Club For Growth targeting Wayne Gilchrest repeatedly in the congressional 1st.


    County       Kratovil      Harris 
    Somerset        5,448       3,626 
    Kent            6,281       3,133 
    Anne Arundel   27,166      29,996 
    Caroline        6,470       5,639 
    Dorchester      8,016       5,783 
    Queen Anne's   12,281      10,059 
    Wicomico       21,901      16,442 
    Baltimore      14,854      20,776 
    Cecil          19,541      18,800 
    Harford        25,384      35,517 
    Worcester      13,703      11,537 
    Talbot         10,452       8,186 
    TOTALS        171,497     169,494

Yes! "it was worse than a crime it was a mistake."

On Sarah Palin:

Yes! it was worse than a crime it was a mistake.

Worse than a Crime.

It was worse than a crime, it was a blunder. Said by Talleyrand of the murder of the Duc d’Enghien by Napoleon I.

Governor Gilchrest

2008-11-08T04:44:00.000-08:00

AP: Kratovil wins 1st District It is funny that a strange confluence of circumstances creates the scenario where Wayne Gilchrest is suddenly well positioned for a run at the Maryland Governor's office.

Wayne has his traditional support of 9 terms in office, name recognition on the ballot, a strong following on the Eastern Shore of Maryland, and a history of working cooperatively with the realities of MD politics, the reality being that it is a Democratic state.

I believe two things, that Wayne could take a majority and plurality of both Democrats and Republicans on the shore. The unique circumstances really make this a possibility where "as a Republican" that Wayne could win the Governor's office.

Politically the Club For Growth or "any" political machine should not short-sell Wayne's ability to understand the district and their sensibilities after 9 terms.

It is time to inquire of Wayne if he would like to explore the idea and put together an initial fund to do so.

Easton, MD DA Frank Kratovil 1st congresssional winner!

2008-11-07T04:35:00.000-08:00

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/harford/bal-md.first07nov07,0,7515061.story

Kratovil has expanded his lead to more than 1,800 votes.

Frank is reality based, no nonsense, and can be expected to make good stewardship decisions concerning the Bay.

I'm calling it for Frank and not waiting for the AP announcement. I also feel that small towns form character that require working together, you can't for instance make a statement about somebody that is a lie, and then not meet them driving down the raod and not wave, or not run into them at the store.

I have a sense of confidence that Frank will treat all 1st congressional MD people the same, Republican and Democrat and on both sides of the bay with the same good common sense and fairness he showed in his job as a prosecutor.

We have a good man in the job at the 1st and somebody who can be relied upon to seek solutiions and not slander.

Congratulations Frank!

Battle over absentee ballots: Harris camp claims Kratovil trying to 'disenfranchise' voters

2008-11-06T16:35:00.000-08:00

Ok here we go, another Harris moment. I mean lets get honest here, when hasn't Harris made dishonest, distorting, and sensationalist claims?

There are always those with little or no decorum or integrity who constantly attemot to project upon others their inadequacies. You know the type, the loud "let me get some attention" types prepetually indignant. Factually these people are attempting to cope with their severe low self-esteem, running for an office and attacking others, clothes and attire; the type who know the price of everything and have no values, the fashion concious slave to inadequacies. The type like Harris who are always so INDIGNANT as if, ergo I'm indignant ergo self-important.

This behavior was never Wayne Gilchrest nor is it Frank Kratovil.

This story as it unfolds will get more bizzare.. poor Frank and Wayne have had Andy stuck like gum on their shoes, and like an unwanted piece of discarded gum, Andy is howling.

This is a real life observation experiment in psychology.

Every new adjustment is a crisis in self-esteem.
Eric Hoffer

"Everything can be taken from a man but ...the last of the human freedoms - to choose
one's attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one's own way."
Viktor E. Frankl

As Harris goes for the recount watch him carefully, the assertion that those ballots weigh his way are not true, there was record turn out of young people, think students in college, the best estimate of military trends are no longer accurate and don't square with North and South Carolina voting trends.

So grab some popcorn this is going to be interesting to watch.

My Kratovil Gilchrest prediction.

2008-11-05T16:00:00.000-08:00

Who is our POTUS? Here is a very well written explanation and candidly a well done blog.

I told you here first.

Wayne Gilchrest was never really a politician in a negative way, he however had that invisible coat of congressman before he became one, he was the right stuff. While Wayne often did not vote my wallet I never questioned his vote.

Wayne was a listener which was very peculiar for a politician, it is very difficult to find a photo of him talking. In his own way he would simply state both sides of the position, the pros and cons, seek a compromise to create a win-win solution, and if that was not possible, confronted with a dillema, he would simply state how he felt about the witch or the devil and vote that way. The man didn't need an opinion poll to know who he was.

Harris has a character defect, no invisible coat for the office, and frankly made a mistake of impugning Wayne who was known for his integrity. I guess Wayne a vietnam veteran and a US Marine knew that fighting was not what he was put in office to do, he remained a publio servant and a steward to the congressional 1st.

There are things before they are done, destinies if you will, and character often is the determining factor. Frank Kratovil's name proceeds him, again I don't expect to agree with him on every vote, but I also don't expect to question his motive for a vote.

It is the end of an age, a time to move on, and I know that Wayne has the character to do so, that was never in doubt. But I agree with Wayne that our better natures count, that our higher natures are what we should seek especially when honored to serve the public. To that effect Wayne never failed, and the support he gave to Frank Kratovil warranted.

Maybe Wayne would do good to serve in government in the education sector again, to mentor a new generation as a role model for service. My hope is that Wayne runs for Governor. irrespective of his choice, I know he will do well.

To Mr. Harris, you lied about the character of a special person and as these ballots are counted I want you to know that Dee Illuminati casted a vote to negate yours. Mr. Harris you are no Wayne Gilchrest and not the Congressman of the 1st congressional district, you were simply unqualified and it was not your destiny.

My vote counts!

2008-11-05T04:35:00.000-08:00

Without drinking the Koolaid I can only say that John McCain lost the race for POTUS twice to George W Bush. I supported McCain in 2000, sent money, and volunteered at the SC HDQT in Columbia, SC. In 2004 I voted Cobb. In 2008 I voted Obama.

I think that we are seeing a referendum by America on what America stands for. I think this is good, if we have a trade inbalance the most important export we have is American ideals.

Time to count the mail in votes, (mine included) I predicted a count in a previous post.

In District 1, Republican Andrew P. Harris and Democrat Frank M. Kratovil Jr. were running neck and neck with more than four-fifths of the votes counted in a race that was viewed as a test of national Democratic momentum. The outcome is likely to be decided by the counting of absentee ballots, expected to last through the week.

Putting aside the Koolaid, drank the champagne instead, I can only say "God Bless America." To the world we have stated again our belief that we still believe in ourselves. It is time to roll up our sleeves and get the tough tasks done.

VOTE! Ecclesiastes 3. 1-8

2008-11-04T04:36:00.000-08:00

To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;
A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.

Chalabi Told you so

2008-11-01T07:25:00.000-07:00

Dee Illuminati never liked Chalabi and blogged critically back on NetTrustCentral about this clown, questioned the pre-war "unintelligence" and came to the realization that sucking up to a politician was what the intel field was about, really.. this is sad.

Chalabi's Star Rises Again with Iranian Intrigues in Baghdad
By Jeff Stein | October 29, 2008 3:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Ahmed Chalabi, the erstwhile Iraqi exile who intrigued with Pentagon officials and the media to create a casus belli for toppling Saddam Hussein, is up to his old tricks.

Chalabi's star plunged when it turned out Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction, as the steady stream of informants he served up to the U.S. media maintained.

After the 2003 occupation, the crafty Shiite's effort to play a leading, if not top, role in Iraqi politics ended in humility when he won few votes at the polls. He did snag fleeting positions, as a deputy prime minister, oil minister and then the official in charge of rebuilding the capital's utilities.

But in part because of suspicions that he was an Iranian secret agent, U.S. defense officials, American commanders in Iraq, and even his neoconservative champions began to shun him.

A Pentagon investigation did not end in charges being filed, but in May, NBC reported that U.S. officials had "cut off all contact with controversial Iraqi politician Ahmed Chalabi, the former favorite of Washington's once powerful neoconservatives," because of "unauthorized contacts with Iran's government."

Chalabi faded from the international spotlight, but now he's back in action big time, says Aram Roston, an NBC investigative reporter and author of "The Man Who Pushed America to War: The Extraordinary Life, Adventures, and Obsessions of Ahmad Chalabi."

Roston calls Chalabi a "key figure" in Iranian efforts to scuttle the status-of-forces agreement that is under fierce negotiation between Baghdad and Washington.

"He is seen more and more by the U.S. as a foreign agent, an Iranian agent," Roston told me by telephone from Mexico, where he is vacationing. What Chalabi says is "equated" with the Iranian position on the status-of-forces agreement, Roston said, which it opposes.

During a visit to Iran in September, Chalabi said the agreement would be used by the U.S. to establish "secret bases" in Iraq. That allegation, and other unpopular items in it, such as exempting U.S. citizens from prosecution in Iraqi courts, has made it increasingly unpopular.

[Update: The U.S. raid into Syria last weekend has also generated Iraqi demands that the agreement include a prohibition on U.S. forces launching attacks on other countries -- read: Iran -- from Iraqi soil.]

Just yesterday, Oct. 28, a conservative Shiite newspaper in Baghdad featured Chalabi's opposition to the agreement, which has to be signed by Dec. 31 or the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq will be illegal. The U.S. has threatened to cut off aid.

"This time represents a black page in the country's history," Chalabi told Al Bayyna Al Jadidah, according to a translation provided to Roston by an Iraqi contact.

"Chalabi is influential," Roston said, not just because he's "backed by Iran," but also because top Iraqi Shia politicians "view him as someone who understands the Americans, that he has the wisdom to know what's going on in their minds."

For years, Chalabi was a fixture in Washington's corridors of power.

"He is a genius," Roston observed, "at staying relevant."

Now my point is this, all the bandwagon folks who now see this guy for what he is, well if you had gone "on the record" before the debacle, not after.. I could respect you.. but for the ass-covering swing in the wind types, those who thought, "hell lets not allow facts to stand in the way of our convictions" well now this is the outcome, an outcome consistent with what would be expected from Chalabi.

Debacle, miserable failure, yes a debacle.. sort of like the operations name where Saddam grabbed a cell phone and then wipped out a group who had been encouraged to uprise.. yes a "debacle." That term is appropo.

I agree with the comment:

When the war started Chalabi now in Iraq was busted giving the Iranians U.S. military codes. American troops raided his house and confiscated his computers. Somehow this guy manages to not be arrested as an enemy combatant. This guy is our enemy. There is no one person more responsible for the debacle we are in than this guy. ( other than shortsighted Bush administration that got duped into this war )

Now here he is proving all this to be true working with the Iranians in plain sight. The only reason I can see we don't kill or capture this guy is that it will expose this administration as being fooled into the biggest debacle in foreign policy and American military history.

This continues today. The Iraqi's are about to tell us to get out of their country. The biggest reason the "surge'" is supposedly working is not because of the extra troops, but because of Al Sadr's ( Shiite ) cease fire. When he called it off breifly earlier this year violence increased dramatically. When the cease fire was back on violence dropped.

Al Sadr who is tight with Iran will wait it out. When we leave we will have left a Shiite majority democracy on the doorstep of our enemies Shiite theocracy.

I wonder if they will send us a thank you card.

Death to Chalabi!

I can only say that I genuinely believe that Joe Biden is incapable of a mistake of this magnitude, that take your pick:

after 9/11, Bush asked Americans to go shopping,

The Frum "axis if evil speech" as if you leave foreign policy to Frum,

The pre-war intel debacle with the tortured confession that Powell put in a bucket and carried to the UN,

General Shinseki fired by Rumsfeld and his stooges,

Paul O'Neill fired.
Ashccroft fired.
Gonzalez promoted.

GITMO, and then the defining moment of the debacle and miserable failure that these last eight years have been:

There has been:

JEDDAH, 16 November 2005 — Liz Cheney, US deputy assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs and daughter of Vice President Dick Cheney, said that it is part of her job to correct the perceptions about her country and its policies because these perceptions hurt America’s image abroad.

She claims that the rumors about torture in American prisons are untrue,

So nepotism and either incompetence or lying folowed by:

When UPI's Pam Hess asked about torture by Iraqi authorities, Rumsfeld replied that "obviously, the United States does not have a responsibility" other than to voice disapproval.

But Pace had a different view. "It is the absolute responsibility of every U.S. service member, if they see inhumane treatment being conducted, to intervene, to stop it," the general said.

Rumsfeld interjected: "I don't think you mean they have an obligation to physically stop it; it's to report it."

But Pace meant what he said. "If they are physically present when inhumane treatment is taking place, sir, they have an obligation to try to stop it," he said, firmly.

Yeah Frum with the axis of evil and Rumsfeld.. pretending to be a professional soldier.

And then the illegal wire-tapping,

David Walker quits

Collapse in the markets.. I could go on and on but

And where are we at now?

This Chalabi asshole now working directly with Iran...

Incompetence and stupidity ought to be culpable.

Instead we get to vote.

I cannot imagine voting Republican

80 Years History Of Brutal Gold Stock Corrections

2008-10-28T17:57:00.000-07:00

80 Years History Of Brutal Gold Stock Corrections

Call it anything but a bubble, but the point is that when you see gold burst you know the major market correction is under way and that valuations have returned.

getting closer to telling you I told you so

2008-10-28T04:53:00.000-07:00

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/27/BU7013P0IR.DTL The above link and last night even Mad Money man acknowledged that the dollar was a silver lining; albeit late for his viewers. Crammer on mad money said what I said a month ago.

We are getting estimates in the TRILLIONS of dollar destruction, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/28/economics-credit-crunch-bank-england, The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect.

They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles.

So let me propose another narrative, The US fed and Treasury spent 700 billion to offset the 3 trillion in losses, (hardly inflationary hmmmmm???) and then there are those surprised to see a strong dollar?

So let me propose another narrative, the US fed and Treasury instead of sweeping dirt under the rug discloses and gives sunshine to US markets as the rest of the world has the majority of the bad debt positions, in other words the US owns up to it's problems, addresses them proactively, does the RIGHT THING and people are surprised to see a strong dollar?

The US Fed, FDIC, Treasury all did the right things given the circumstance where a former fed chief "never saw the possibility of housing going down." "Never saw the possibility of housing going down." "Never saw the possibility of housing going down." ... hmmmmm bad call there Alan. But I have to give 100% ctedit to the response to the problem by the FEDS on this crisis. I mean lets give them credit where it is due. I supported the bailout/rescue as they did, and it was the right call, and hardly inflationary.

Meanwhile, unable to call the gold bubble a gold bubble, read this. Funny when you read this narrative by Mike there is no mention of a bubble in gold. And keep in mind that his advice was go long gold, mine??? Go long dollar.

I would gloat but my lot is to explain accounting to people who think they understand it, fancy themselves as understanding it, but have never actually been responsible for a consolidated balance sheet. (real job)

But my point is to say, that if the FEDS had not acted when they did, we would be in a far worse situation.

Because the FED did act fast I think we have a 50/50 chance of a 12 month recession and possibly longer if the other central bankers don't act couragesouly.

Candidly, I typically quit when working with dumb and unsupportive people. I want to express appreciation to Paulson and Big Ben for being the Gamesman.

I never suck up, never pander, but you have to give credit for taking ideas to the public where the vast majority cannot see the implications and connections, come up with a plan, and then get personally attacked for doing precisely the correct thing. The Jungle fighter in me often leaves me with the attitude, hell let em wallow in their studpidity, but even at great personal stress, these people perservered and did the right thing.

I at least "I'm appreciative" recognize the good call.

I expect a worse case at 7300 and would not be surprised if that number is higher as the low, in fact.. wondering if Buffet made the better call?

But understand, that no matter how bad things look, something you are reminded of when you travel abroad, that if the US seems screwed up, rest assured the rest of the globe is worse.

These FED chiefs will be only recognized in hind-sght and history for getting this precise moment in history right.

Frankly a broken clock is right twice a day.

2008-10-26T16:47:00.000-07:00

Nouriel Roubini frankly is not the only "IMF ECONOMIST" to buck the Fund. And Frankly a search of the term housing bubble did not originate with this man. And Frankly breakers have halted trading in the 90's and the world did not come off the hinge. And Frankly proclaiming your not a geek is the plaintive wail of a perpetual virgin who's semen is backing up into the base of his brain as he flails for attention of the opposite sex.

I posted Y2k Cats on FreeRepublic in 1999. It was a spoof where I found some photos of skinning of Squirrel's and re-wrote the how-to guide for cats.

Well Frankly the fact that it was on the internet was enough for some to get nervous and freak out! The end of the world was at hand and peoples pet's were in peril.

Well the end of the world did not happen. And I think that Nouriel Roubini reminds me of telling Y2k ghost stories. Frankly Nouriel I don't give a damn.

Make your own call, Frankly I think a piece of leg would cure the guy, I say we all chip in and buy this man a prostitute before money no longer exists.

The Palin Problem

2008-10-25T17:01:00.000-07:00

Call it "going rogue" or as Time puts it a "problem" the GOP is in chaos.

The Gaurdian states below the GOP is in civil war and I agree. Look no further than Gilchrest and Harris in the MD 1st congressional. I mean lets get honest, the "Club For Growth" has pumped millions into a district to unseat a Republican, and many Republicans don't like it!

I mean lets get honest, when Joe Lieberman speaks up for John McCain it is supposed to be an appeal to the moderates and cross-over votes, and that was the "market branding" that McCain had as the "maverick" or the "maverick" that Gilchrest or even Ron Paul are. But the GOP has cookie cutter representation that many Republicans are "just saying no" when they hear the message. Waving a fetus and talking about a flag burning ammendment is not going to cut it, the moderate and swing vote wants details on renewable energy and health care, reigning in insurance companies, and stabilization of markets. Tired out talking points, or as Biden famously put it:
"There's only three things he mentions in a sentence: a noun, and a verb and 9/11" of Giuliani.

Now as a life-time Republican (an I will not switch parties) I'm for the first time voting Democrat, no, don't get me wrong I have voted for local offices Democrat if I knew the candidate was better qualified, even voted for Billy Don after he called the Eastern Shore the shit house. But honestly, I'm voting Obama/Biden and down-ticked Kratovil. Last election I voted Cobb and was disgusted. This time I'm optomistic. And here is the ass-kicker, I donated to McCain in 2000 when he was the alternative to the "crazies." The First Bush Administration Referred to Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld and Cheney and their ilk as the "crazies" and these people now are what is remaining of the GOP. Mean Jean Schmidt, Giuliani, Harris, and as Powell puts it, the 'fucking crazies'.

People who look to John Warner, Colin Powell, Olympia Snow, Chuck Hagel, I'll even overlook the hard abortion stance and add Mike Huckabee as palatable.

But look at what has become of the GOP.

I was saddened to see McCain dillute the standing he had as he pandered to these nut-cases. I'm not surprised to see the rift, it has been brewing a long time. And yes I'll toss $100.00 bucks against the club for growth, but more importantly I'm VOTING FOR A CHANGE! I didn't change, the GOP did.

'The Republican party is going to have to work out what sort of party it actually wants to be. It's a changing world for them,' said Professor Shaun Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California at Riverside. It might not be easy. A powerful Democratic win could wipe out Republican moderates. It could leave the party in the grip of its conservative and evangelical base who remain critical of figures such as McCain but who are wildly enthusiastic about politicians such as Palin. The Republican party could end up in a bitter civil war for its political future.'

Dyslexic sociopath makes political statement, yeah... uhmmm

2008-10-24T17:11:00.000-07:00

Ashley Todd has an entry in Wiki so does Joe the Plumber both pages are in DISPUTE on Wiki.

Now that mugger either had Dyslexia or that B was carved in a mirror. If you think it is easy carving a reversed B then take a piece of paper and try writing one three times, it becomes MORE difficult as we are not wired to do this.

The officers who investigated this incident probably realized quickly (hopefully so) that this was a fraud. How much easier is self-sacrifice than self-realization.

When our individual interests and prospects do not seem worth living for, we are in desperate need for something apart from us to live for. All forms of dedication, devotion, loyalty and self-surrender are in essence a desperate clinging to something which might give worth and meaning to our lives.

I mean to tell you, this is a TRUE BELIEVER and not too far away from self-destruction similar to the folks that Suicide attack. The law enforcement officers did a good job of dealing with this "ugly" assertion of being attacked, but then again, a sociopath that steals money, a mugger, is politically congnitive and sensitive????

Illuminating this women as a fraud was the right thing to do. But I imagine she needs a shrink and a suicide watch, I bet that she is more self-destructive now, than before, she needs a good shrink.

But lets review this, a dyslexic sociopath takes some time to make a political statement after he has the money.... uhhhhmmmm most law enforcement is too damn savy and street wise to not see past this... and shame on the press for not getting the facts correct.

We have a sick girl here.. fodder for extremists and cults.

Central Bank Gold Manipulation rumors

2008-10-22T18:55:00.000-07:00

I read a WIDE variety of news sources. Some of the sites are laughable and at times grab a story that the MSM is avoiding or fall under the category that a broken clock is right twice a day.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=central+bank+gold+manipulation&aq=f&oq=

One of the "myths" of the "campers" is that there is re-hydrated beans needed for Y2k, or that the world is ending in 2012, or a commet is comming, or that the bible codes say this, say that, etc.

I call these people "campers" because what they want to do is take a contrarian view and be right about it. Campers in the sense of Charles Manson who believed that Helter Skelter was about a race war which he would incite, blacks would win, that he would survive in the desert, and then ruderless the blacks would seek him out "camping" in the wilderness.

There is always this "wilderness" thing.. sort of the magnetic attraction I think in "part" of Palin to the right wing fringe.

And then there is the "gold bugs." I see two types of "gold bugs" the True Believers, and then the professional traders selling fear. I mean make no mistake about it the Hunt Brothers proved that professionals can play in this market.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Hunt+Brothers+silver&aq=f&oq=

So now Gold is falling, the bubble that Gold was is imploding and the "campers" are making claims of GOLD MANIPULATION.

Well let me set the record straight, a bubble is a bubble is a bubble.

Gertrude Stein (1874-1946) Modern before modernism, Gertrude Stein’s work stands as one extreme of Twentieth Century Literature. At Radcliff she studied psychology with William James, and at Johns Hopkins afterwards she studied the anatomy of the brain. The psychological theories of James and of a closely related French philosopher, Henri Bergson, laid the foundation for her own highly original work. The idea that consciousness is a stream, rather than a succession of formations, and that underneath chronological memory is an intuitive apprehension of existence, led to certain conclusions of her own that animated bother her prose and verse.

Chief among them was that sequence and causation were methods of imprisoning the mind. The object of language, she held, was to bring things and people and words out of stale usage into a state which she variously designated as “the excitingness of pure being,” “realizing the existence of living,” “the intensity of anyone’s existence.” When asked what she meant by “a rose is a rose is a rose,” she explained that in the time of Homer, or of Chaucer, when the language was new, “the poet could use the name of the thing and the thing was really there.” But as memory took it over, it lost its identity, which she was trying to recover. She boasted, “I think in that line the rose is red for the first time in English poetry for a hundred years.”

The interesting thing is that studying thought and markets is not new, similar to Gertrude an observation was made:

Idols of the tribe - "The idols of the tribe are inherent in human nature and the very tribe or race of man; for man's sense is falsely asserted to be the standard of things....(p. 20). [They]...arise either from the uniformity of the constitution of mans spirit, or its prejudices, or its limited faculties or restless agitations, or from the interference of the passions, or the incompetence of the senses...." (p. 28).

Idols of the den - "The idols of the den are those of each individual; for everybody (in addition to the common errors in the race of man) has his own individual den or cavern, which intercepts or corrupts the light of nature, either from his own peculiar and singular disposition, or from, his education and intercourse with others, or from his reading, and thre authority acquired by those whom he reverences and admires, or from the different impressions produced on the mind, as it happens to be preoccupied and predisposed...." (p. 21)

Idols of the market - "...formed by the reciprocal intercourses and society of man with man....for men converse by means of language, but words are formed at will of the generality, and there arises from a bad and unapt formation of words a wonderful obstruction to the mind. Nor can definitions and explanations with which learned men are won't to guard and protect themselves in some instances afford a complete remedy - words manifestly force the understanding, throw everything into confusion, and lead mankind into vain and innumerable controversies and fallacies." (p. 21)

Idols of the theater - "...there are idol which have crept into men's minds from the various dogmas of peculiar systems of philosophy, and also from the perverted rules of demonstration...for we regard all the systems of philosophy hitherto received or imagined, as so many plays brought out and performed, creating fictitious and theatrical worlds." (p. 22)

The reason why I posted this is to point out the myoptic ability to know markets. That language is often insufficient to explain the composition and "cause" effect of markets.

While many Gold pimps advocated the market of Gold and pointed out the bubble in housing they conveniently avoided the issue of the bubble in gold, or oil.. or.. minus a DEFLATIONARY downdraft, dollars.

This is why GOLD and metals has been the most cruel bubble of all.

Any cognitive analysis of Epistemology, be it empirical analysis (post Hoc) of inference.. is not a science. These "experts" who are now discredited all have language to blame.. (laughing) well not actually language.. BUT WHAT THEY CHOOSE TO BRING. The campers brought their wilderness and survival skills... and what they find is a bubble. It is as if the Materialist view is attened with an emotive lense.

Computer Science is an oxymoron, has been and remains so, economics is an art, science included. In 420B.C. Democritus asked the question, how can a river flow and yet reamin one? Zeno of Elea 490 BC? – ca. 430 BC? while reductio ad absurdum was the cornerstone of Zeno's argument.. we see that any position in the market, house values only go up, Gold in difficult times, buy and hold, and "reductio ad absurdum" statement or position fails.

Faced with that failure.. we have "Central Bank Gold Manipulation."

AS if.. it is as if.. these people were unaware that there was a "market" for gold.

Idols of the market - "...formed by the reciprocal intercourses and society of man with man....for men converse by means of language, but words are formed at will of the generality, and there arises from a bad and unapt formation of words a wonderful obstruction to the mind. Nor can definitions and explanations with which learned men are won't to guard and protect themselves in some instances afford a complete remedy - words manifestly force the understanding, throw everything into confusion, and lead mankind into vain and innumerable controversies and fallacies."

A bubble is a bubble is a bubble...

Clear thinking is often unorthodox thinking, difficult, and risky.

But it beats the consequences of faulty thinking, intellectual laziness, and apportions responsibility where it belongs.

A bubble is a bubble is a bubble...

It is a damn shame that all the hedge funds, which the gold pimps decried are selling positions in gold....

Here is a good example of what I mean:

Rense which is in the clock twice a day is correct, even if it isn't working cites: RumorMillnews and then Dollar roars back as global debts are called in. Rense a schill for gold has cost rubes dearly. But, wait, here read this!

I'm reminded by "fat scotty" of the saying in the used auto industry that "there is a seat for every ass."

Again, read the commentary and ask yourself, didn't the people who bought at the peak of the real estate bubble make similar statements?

Let me tell you why http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html Kitco doesn't post full charts on gold, because unlike real-estate which can be borrowed against, if you buy gold in a bubble you hold it until a greater foll comes along. It is cash and carry, the cruelest bubble.

But really, you want to read some market commentary, an insight into psychology of investing, read gold collumns.

The small investor or rube/lemming is going to howl.

In a deflationary market where there is too few dollars chasing too many debts, and equity values drop, "creating demand destruction and wealth destruction" people need dollars not bullion to service debt.

Watching these people respond to the crisis is more interesting than the central bankers who at least have a coherent and rational response.

CDS Lehman settlement day!

2008-10-21T18:27:00.000-07:00

CDS Lehman settlement is a topic all it's own, and frankly considering all the dire predictions, the market fared well.

Dow Jones Industrials * 9033.66 -231.77 -2.50

S&P 500 * 955.05 -30.35 -3.08

Nasdaq Composite * 1696.68 -73.35 -4.14

Russell 2000 * 530.65 -16.19 -2.96

Actually Gold traded with the market. A good sign overall.

Central Banks Scramble to Buy Dollars to Bolster Banking Systems

If Buffet was right in calling this an early bottom, and hit it on his "time to get greedy day" announcement, then all I can say is that he is the Oracle of Omaha.

As Buffet focuses on controlling stock of companies with earnings, he might have bought early and.. and.. bought quality.

But today was not the debacle that some predicted.

Overall an orderly market trading day and an example of what intervention in markets is supposed to avoid, the news of CDS Lehman settlement.

Does that mean that the bailout rescue was a success???

Not definitively can be said now, but we do know that the CDS Lehman settlement didn't evoke systemic default and that I call a victory.

Harris and Kratovil

2008-10-21T04:39:00.000-07:00

This is going to take days to count all the votes. The Powell endorsement and fall in real estate values in Hartford Co. will made this race the story after the election. A poorly run campaign by McCain, poor choice of VP, and myoptic polls in MD where the results have historically been wrong because of the geo-district of the 1st.

My bet, it takes a week and Harris pays for the recount.

http://www.kratovil.com/

Markets and some thoughts

2008-10-17T19:34:00.000-07:00

On October 9th I wrote: Gold is the inverse bubble, the last bubble, and after many losses always the most cruel. Would I have SHORTED the gold market? No.

But lets look at what the Gold pimps are saying, I'm of course saying I told you so, but lets look at what they are saying:

The US Dollar gave back half of Wednesday's sharp gains on the currency markets, while the RJ/CRB Reuters Commodities Index sank almost 5% as platinum plunged towards fresh three-year lows.

The Gold Price in Euros rallied from €614 per ounce. US Treasury bond yields rose.

"Gold's fared relatively better than other assets in the financial crisis," said Wallace Ng, head of metals for Fortis Bank in Asia, to Bloomberg today. "But with these price swings, some investors may prefer cash now."

Fast-becoming the very worst one-month slump in history – and taking the Dow/Gold Ratio down to just 10 for the first time since Jan. 1995 – the Greater Crash today knocked a further 11% off the Tokyo Nikkei after the S&P on Wall Street ended Wednesday over 9% down.

"Depositors might move a significant portion of their deposits to state-owned commercial banks and other banks that they consider as safe," he adds.

China's gold jewelry consumers accounted for 10% of physical world demand last year. Now the vice-mayor of Shanghai says growth in the city's industrial output slowed to 6% in Sept. after averaging 11.5% annualized during the first nine months of the year.

"In the past, we would expect to see Gold Bullion move up when stock markets tumbled," one Hong Kong dealer told Reuters.

"But this is not the case anymore. Some of the financial institutions have to liquidate their long positions to cover losses."

Hedge funds in particular – a major source of leveraged Gold Price between 2002 and 2007 – are being forced to quit their positions as clients pull out. ( Read about Gold: No Credit, No Leverage here... )

"Some of the [big investment] funds are not doing very well," the Hong Kong gold dealer went on.

Gordon Brown, the discredited former UK chancellor and now prime minister, called it a "new Bretton Woods", referring to the post-WWII currency regime which collapsed thanks to excessive US credit and money creation two decades later.

New data from TrimTabs Investment Research showed wealthy investors pulling more than $43 billion out of US hedge funds during Sept.

"Every commodity is falling. I think it's much better to keep more cash on hand. The market is so uncertain," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong, to Reuters earlier.

By Adrian Ash
BullionVault.com

You better believe I stated here that Cash was King, and that USA Cash was cash in spades! You hear the Bretton Woods thing bantered around, as if there was a currency besides the dollar? Well let me say it again: Go long the dollar, I can't tell you timing of the market but I can tell you with certainty the outcome. Let me reiterate, Gold was a bubble like Oil and when the bubble bursts, you can wait a long time for another bubble.

Here is an article, Banks Hoard Cash as Credit Card Defaults Rise. Hmmmm the article states they are hoarding what??? Cash. Because if they were hoarding gold they would lose money.

Bubbles create scenarios were assets (including loans and the collateral of loans) including stocks, commodities, debt swaps, and gold all lose money or VALUE. In these deflationary markets where too many debts chase too few dollars what does not loose value is DOLLARS,

This is what a picture looks like of a bubble.

Yes that is 30 years. It can take that long to reach dollar parity minus inflation to break even if you buy into a gold bubble. And keep in mind that the smart money is dumping gold as the gold pimps tell the rubes to take possesion of the bullion, as if.. as if... at half the price it was sold that more wouldn't be available.

Think your stocks look bad??

Well somebody who bought gold at $1000.00 US an ounce can now expect to wait 40 years to recoup that purchase.

http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/compound_interest_calculator.htm

Take the lost compound interest, subtract inflation, and then look at the lifetime gold chart.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Yeah Gold is the most cruel bubble of all. As I watched the Gold pimps slander the Stock market pimps, the cockroach defaming the slugs, I thought to myself why won't the government just tell people to put their money in banks? I mean if the government had asked the people to put their money in banks to "liquidate" the banks patriots would have done so.

Laughing, the truth is soooo damned simple, because after 911 when asked what Americans could do? the POTUS said "go shopping." And that is why Gold is so damn cruel, sold as a refuge it is a mirage. I mean to tell ya.. if you had read this blog and instead held gold, stocks, or the krona you could have found a USA bank and done better.

WHO IS THE GOVERNMENTS GLOBALLY VOWING TO SAVE? The gold market? Real Estate? Stock Market?? Nooooooooo... "BANKS!" That is why the government did not tell you to put your money there!

I blogged tonight for one reason to say that if you have not done so, GO FIND YOURSELF A GOOD USA BANK if you are not investing for a long-term horrizon say, twenty years, if you are in a deduction plan at work or 410K split 50/50 with stocks and stay long the market, else.. else... GO FIND YOURSELF A GOOD USA BANK

People will tell you, yes I'm arrogant but very seldom wrong.

But lets look at the bright side of things..

New Solar Energy Material Captures Every Color Of The Rainbow

But let me warn you again: Find a US BANK. Find a GOOD US BANK. And let me share this with you.

October 16, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor
The Ice Storm
By GAUTI KRISTMANNSSON
Reykjavik, Iceland

ICELANDERS have woken up in a new novel by Franz Kafka, where everybody is guilty by default. One by one, the mighty banks have been seized by the government, and Icelanders, aghast, have been told that each and every one of us owes millions of dollars — to whom, we don’t know. The earnest faces of the politicians, of bankers and tycoons almost crying, give us the final touch of the surreal. The situation is comparable only with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the 9/11 attacks — something final and yet beyond one’s individual grasp has happened.

This time, however, instead of looking on we are in the middle of it. The first 500 bankers have lost their jobs in one go; many others are waiting for the double blow of unemployment and losing their house as their mortgage payments soar. When the Reykjavik stock exchange reopened on Tuesday after three days of suspended trading, its index, dominated by bankrupt financial institutions, had lost 75 percent of its value.

Suddenly, there are lines in the bank for foreign currencies, and there is a limit on how much we can get — overseas banks are refusing to accept our freefalling currency, the krona. One of my students, studying in Spain, can’t get money from Iceland for her rent. Importers and exporters can’t get currency to conduct business. Icelandic tourists abroad have problems getting cash from A.T.M.’s. The British government has applied terrorist laws to freeze the assets of an Icelandic bank; the list goes on as if it were a script for the nightmare of globalization.

We thought we had friends, in Europe and in the United States. They were sought in the hour of need and found to be busy with their own problems; only the Scandinavians were prepared to extend a helping hand, and then, all of a sudden, Russia — somehow the world has changed. The disappointment with our old “friends” is great and people ask, did we really behave any worse than the others?

People joke about going back to the ’70s, when there were restrictions on how much currency one could take abroad and the government devalued the krona regularly to reduce spending on foreign luxuries. It wasn’t all that bad then, they say, apart from the bellbottoms and high-heeled shoes for men, perhaps.

But the jokes are not funny, for we did join the party in the 1990s, we did pour money into our apartments, houses, cars, gadgets, stocks; the money was borrowed, too. After an era of deprivation, we were eager to enjoy the newfound freedoms of capitalism and credit cards. We believed everything would add up; certainly the free-market enthusiasts told us so time and again. And most of us could pay our mortgages and credit cards, at least until last week.

Now that we don’t know if we can, the shock is so strong that neither anger nor sorrow have really taken hold. We thought Iceland was an independent country that could take care of itself without the help of Russia or the International Monetary Fund, that our currency amounted to something, that we could own companies and banks all over the world. We thought we could enjoy our beautiful country and clean air in the backyard of the aluminum smelter.

In many ways, we uncritically accepted the capitalist system, which now appears to have been a gigantic casino without an owner. We did in the end believe that we could get “money for nothing” and now we face the fact that we will get nothing for our money.

What to do, nobody knows, least of all the politicians, bankers, tycoons; but then again, I heard that a new edition of “The Communist Manifesto” will be published here this autumn. Coincidence, of course, but like everything else, unreal. Kafka’s Iceland probably has an ending different from anything that we can possibly imagine.

Gauti Kristmannsson is an associate professor of translation studies at the University of Iceland.

New Era yes or No? I say obviously yes

2008-10-15T04:18:00.000-07:00

Is this the end of an Era, end of Adam Smith, end of Hayek? I initially would say yes and no, and then YES.

I don't see how somebody could watch the documentary, The commanding heights or read the book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed or witness the coordinated global rate cut and not sense a change.

You hear commentary that wants to ignore the increasingly larger importance of international trade, you hear howls to return to mercantalism, but yes the world has changed.

In addition, naked pricing from the internet, an ability to order a small home generator from China online, an ability to search through NextTag for the best price, to buy not down the street but instead down the list of a webpage.

I make an observation, while the intervention globally in markets has not brought an end to the markets contagion, it has nonetheless ushered in a new era.

One of the areas that Diamond felt in his book that would avert problems in the future was information and media, where globally reactions to crisis was possible and coordinated responses possible. In the "Great Depression" an ability to make a coordinated response by video conference was not possible.

I saw the market do something that I stated signaled a bottom, that was commodities and equities downm in proportion to market fundamnentals, if that trend continues over 12 to 24 months, then I would say yes that this is a new Era and not a bad one.

Did I go long the market? No.

Your all diseased now!

2008-10-10T05:15:00.000-07:00

I recall an associate at annapolis junction who would often just laugh and say "they're diseased" in reference to the George Carlin rant. I would often agree in respect to the inertia of tradition thought that often passed as common sense.

Though we saw foreign policy different, possibly best summed as purely agnostic versus idealogue. We nonetheless often looked at what was said and discussed and would shake our heads and sum up behavior or statements as: "they're all diseased."

As I was watching squat-box (yes a box which vocus flacus pours into daily) I heard a question put to Branson (virgin) to the effect, "what do you think about the concept that Northern Rock caused all of this?"

I can hear the scratching sound of a record now!!!! Whoa... what was that?

YOUR ALL DISEASED! I mean that is where we would often disagree, one a staunch apologist for status quo, the other looking at the disease and not the symptom.

I mean honestly.. Worldcom, CEG, AIG, Enron.. and I hear that the disease was Northern Rock?

No.. "your all diseased now" and were so before the contagion made itself honestly apparent.

A while back I pointed out that the Euro was no different than the US and that as far as disease was concerned.. it was like a bad B movie where you knew that these banks would start feeding on flesh at any moment.

What gets me is the worthless and irrelevant narrative of where institutions go through useless motions, or news people, cycles of useless narrative, where copyright lawyers stand-by to prevent you from reminding these people of their statements.

And that was a key difference, I didn't drink the Koolaid often and could be seen by my associate as a non-team player.. I mean I guess when it comes to coventional wisdom and intelligence that the narrative is more important than the facts.

Nope, YOUR ALL DISEASED NOW and the ailment will not leave until it kills off the hosts that carry it, and it will not stop spreading until deaths of these diseased are final, or a lazarus deal is done.

The real question and the only question that is applicable is if any lessons were learned?

Most institutions and especially "management" not leadership don't learn. And don't expect leadership from poloticians, they routinely stick their heads up, see what has happened, and then babble about it.

The market is actually a perfect instrument in that it is self-regulatory. Yeah I know that the term raises alarms, but self-regulating does not mean and absence of oversight and regulation.

But this disease is darwin asserting facts.

Yeah some of these CEO's probably the majority of them deserve the "darwin award."

But said succinctly, it is not the French Pox, or the Spanish Pox.... they're all diseased.

If you believe that this is caused by Northern Rock, then you need to go find a medievel barber and bleed some more.

Your all diseased now!

Your all diseased now!

Don't imagine for a moment that some smart people didn't see this comming.

Just remember the narrative at squat box is that.. squat.

A signal of a bottom and selling exhaustion

2008-10-09T16:54:00.001-07:00

I was surprsied to see Gold is closer to capitulation today. It rose 3.51% while the Dow was down 7.33%. I hear lots of advice but can tell you this, when you see Gold and Dow down the same day, you know that you can put a toe back in the water.

Based on the above my bet is this: My bet is that the Dow will drop to at least 7,200 and at that point without further losses, then the bottom is close.

But if you are looking for the buy signal? It is when Gold and Dow drop the same day.

I based the additional 15% on the ration of Gold to Dow trading ratio. Or twice the current loss at 15%. What is the Gold upside? It will not exceed a 7% gain and hold it when Dow hits 7,200.

Could this happen in one day? Yes.

I have given this some thought while driving and wanted to post this to refer to it later. The Dow will hit 7,200 and that incidentally will meet the range of Oct.97

The two super cycle lows since 1900 occurred in 1932 (89% below the top) and in 1974 (45% below the top).

We are down 30% but my guess is that we have 15% to go.

The early distribution penalty of 10% looks good still now!

Shareholders took $43.3 billion from stock funds and $8.8 billion from bond funds in the week ended Oct. 8, according to data compiled by TrimTabs Investment Research in Sausalito, California. The exodus followed $72.3 billion of outflows in September, the most in a single month. Investors deposited $185.5 billion into bank accounts last month through Sept. 22, TrimTabs said, citing U.S. Federal Reserve data.

If you go back and look at Gold in deflationary markets, or have studied distressed markets, familiar with Kondratieff and Irving Fisher you will look back on this and wonder why I can make this assertion?

Because this time the market is GLOBAL and the distortions of intra-economy trading on a distressed economy will not delay or retard this process.

My guess we dead cat bounce or hit this low at three points, before XMAS, 3/15 or 9/15 which are bond reclamation/settlement days.

Dow hits 7500 create a shopping list and hope that this is a managed cycle and not the genuine super-cycle. Because it is global, it will be managed.

If you read another money blog that says that money is "created out of thin air" remember that gold is created out of dirt and at the right price they will create more of it, unlike waterfront property.

The markets are complex inter-relationships of math, closer to philosophy and language to anything tangible, it is a concept, an economy, like Bacon's idol states, language and an interaltionship of math. Gold is the inverse bubble, the last bubble, and after many losses always the most cruel.

The markets are extremely oversold, but it can't muster a rally. Why not? The Fed is doing everything it can; it will undoubtedly soon start taking direction positions in financial companies, and may even guarantee loans between banks.

While many are expecting a rally, and some are in fact buying modestly right now, there are other problems.

1) Financials have been hurt by concerns about wider losses (credit card, commercial real estate), and capital raising issues.

Look what happened to BofA[BAC 19.63 -2.47 (-11.18%) ] and Morgan Stanley after they announced capital raises; look what is happening to Wells Fargo [WFC 27.25 -4.65 (-14.58%) ]and Prudential and Protective Life now that many believe they will have to raise capital.

2) But there's a bigger problem: there is no "E" in the P/E. In English, there is no Earnings in the Price/Earnings Ratio.

Look at the estimates now: S&P 500 price is 975; many estimates of earnings for the S&P 500 for 2009 are around $75 for the index.

Do the math: 975/$75 = 13 x earnings. Now, this is modestly cheap. The historic average is 15 x earnings, so 13 x is a little cheap, but not much.

Here's the problem: that $75 estimate is baloney. No one has a CLUE what earnings will be. All we know is they keep dropping.

So the Street is re-jiggering the numbers. Instead of $75 earnings, let's assume, say, $60 earnings. In order to get to a level where the S&P is cheap (13 x earnings), we have to go to 800 on the S&P: 800/$60 = 13.3 x earnings. 800 on the S&P??? Gads, it's at 975 or so now, that's a drop of...another 175 points....1,700 points on the Dow! Sobs and wails.

See why the Street is in despair? With no visibility on earnings, we can't play the game.

That's why the banks have to start lending, in order to get a clear indication of what it costs to borrow money. Getting a grip on a company's lending costs are key.

Cheaper lending costs mean higher margins, which means higher earnings!

Disincentive of 401K

2008-10-09T04:52:00.000-07:00

The rate cut effectively made contributions to 401K's less attractive than to say servicing consumer debt. With recent looses and the prospect for growth in 410's retarded the cut effectively was a disincentive to contribute.

The long-term interest of any held debt paid to principal exceeds return on savings in a structured 401.

In addition the nominal penalty of losses for early withdrawal of 410 funds offset by low interest return applied to a long-term interest payment is attractive.

As an example 15% penalty of say 20K was a disincentive, that fund now reduced to say 10K and offering 1.5% return, best case scenario if in fixed return applied to amorotized long-term debt makes taking the penalty and applying it to that debt attractive, or meeting higher capital requirements for refinancing.

The rate cuts need to be weighed in regard to creating an incentive to transfer liquid assets into non-liquid assets.

If the mortgage is large, long-term, and the opportunity to pay off principal is available, I could easily demonstrate the advantages from a tax and finance perspective of liquidating a 410, applying it to mortgage, and thus realizing a better return of dollar.

Expect this trend as main-street and the proletariat realizes the facts regarding interest. Emotionally employees participate in 410's with their employers, if the job-losses mount, as empoyment is sought and real-estate transactions require relocation, expect this trend to be performed by white-collar workers.

In that respect, the inability to receive a return on 410 investment, especially where it is not matched, I see the rate cut as a disincentive to main street.

Interest Rate Cut

2008-10-08T04:13:00.000-07:00

Rates cut globally at up to 1% or 1/2% on major exchanges, at this juncture are pro-active. However that diminishes the size of a bazoooka in a pocket.

Being in fixed savings I support a strong dollar. And cutting rates punishes savings and pension fund returns. A rate cut cannot re-liquidate the markets but it might prevent or hinder contagion globally.

I think that the cut in interest rates will be seen as impotent to the market as the effort does not produce immediate results.

I would have done the same, but if other central banks do not cooperate then not pursuing a strong dollar policy, reserve of last resort policy, then the cut was a mistake.

I hope the FED makes a firm statement that this is the extent of rate cuts in the forseeable future.

Otherwise money is safer under the mattress if the return on saving is such that it isn't worth standing in line to receive it.

I'm skeptical....

The rate cut doesn't address the real issue.

crisis of confidence versus math and derivatives

2008-10-06T04:32:00.000-07:00

I hear a narrative that there is a crisis of confidence in the markets. I have to shake my head as I hear that. Facts dictate circumstances, there is no crisis of confidence if there is strong capital positions.

Said another way, as the markets cut through "strike prices" in puts in larger markets, say where a call position was abandoned, a leap position no longer adequate for a straddle, as markets covered positions and made notional payments, losses continue.

Anyone who didn't see the Euro losses was incapable seeing the risk of the mortgages, CDO's, and swap instruments. It is as if the narrative that is unwilling to see the truth.

Will global zero interest rate fix the problem? No.

What also interests me is the resumption of the "carry trade" with Japan. It is as if the need for a bubble to replace a bubble, or debt to replace debt, is what we get as leadership from 'finance.'

As global markets shed trillions in losses, the real payer of these bad loans is the retirement accounts and the investment portfolios of savers globally. This is what globalism does, it allows the benefits of globalism to benefit more parties, but it also forces globally losses to be accrued.

If there were concerns that the bailout was inflationary, they were not. In this deflationary spiral the losses similar to the Nikkei 225, remove that capital from circulation as losses and the offset of capital destruction makes the bailout non-inflationary.

But will a rate cut help?

Laughing, as if more of what got us into this mess is the solution.

Lower interest rates globally is a shuffling of the chairs on the decks of the titanic, a punishing of savers, an invitation to incite a flight to gold, and precisely what is not needed.

Two predictions, you lower rates on savings, you will run banks. If credit resumes based on the realities of the markets, we get through the crisis. There is no quick fix until smart managent and money liquidates dumb management and money.

If you see a global interest rate reduction, you hear a global referendum that teh bankers themselves don't believe in themselves. You are hearing a global claim that banks do not even like themselves, do not trust one another.

Lower rates will exasperate the crisis robbing fixed earnings and deposists as the markets decline from real world issues of NPL's. This will run people to precious metals causing a bubble there (which always bursts the most violent), and the further destruction of wealth.

Given all the alternatives lowering rates globally accomplishes nothing, lending on basis of credit worthiness is the only answer.

But watching the parade of narrative on TV is amazing, these people are like heroin addicts looking for yesterday's fix.

EURO in doo doo and will energystar update their website?

2008-10-04T05:35:00.000-07:00

Well ok the senate passed new tax credits, but the information is not specific. So I imagine that the effect will be minimal as a stimulus.

Meanwhile, Prospect Fades for Joint EU Bank Bailout. Two nations garunteed deposits forestalling a run on their banks. Actually Grece and Ireland "had no choice" as the notional losses of larger members due to derivative losses effectively make them "below depository value." I guess stated another way, lets say everybody pitches in $50 dollars to join a group and ten members join, and the club is to poll resources for the better good, but the fifty dollars is "all of the money of two members" and a fraction of the amount of the other, then the group loses 600 dollars, two of the members are broke!

So to avert a run on banks, the European bank rescue plan in tatters amid savings stampede. So for the sake of argument, if I had Euro Dollars in say France, I would deposit them in Greek or Irish banks! So this leaves Central banks become lender of only resort.

So you read it here first.

Most Americans don't realize the facts behind the crisis. The facts that unwinding positions in derivatives will post "notional losses" greater than the GDP of Ireland and Grece.

The bailout was the right thing to do.

We are in a

For example, the spring phase of the cycle is generally regarded as a time of emergent expansion - usually after an extended downturn in economic activity. The spring phase is followed by a summer phase, during which economic activity is at its most robust. Generally, it is believed that economic growth begins to be inflationary during the summer phase of the cycle. There is often a recession of some significance between the summer phase and the autumn phase-the recession signifying that the "best" or most healthy part of the economic expansion has concluded.

The autumn phase of the cycle represents both the recovery from the post-summer phase recession and the first stages of a disinflationary trend. This trend tends to coincide with falling interest rates, which peaked during the inflationary growth of the summer phase. As befits a disinflationary market, stocks and bonds tend to do tremendously well during this phase. Falling interest rates boost bond prices, make stocks more competitive with bonds, and introduce a powerful credit cycle that is largely responsible for helping to shift economic activity from production to finance.

The autumn phase is followed, predictably, by the winter phase. During this phase, all those disinflationary chickens come home to roost in what is most often a full-blown deflationary episode. Prices for all assets-from physical assets to financial ones-begin to slip and, before the winter phase is over, eventually plunge to startlingly low levels. The purpose of the winter phase is well put in the infamous quote by Andrew Mellon, President Herbert Hoover's Depression-era Treasury Secretary, who urged:

"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people."

As is true in nature, so it is with economics in Kondratieff's view. Winter is a time of death, but it is in that death that new life becomes possible. At the bottom of the Kondratieff winter, "enterprising people" indeed "pick up the wrecks," and a new 50-odd year Kondratieff cycle is reborn in spring.

I would think that promoting and initiating the EURO in a kondratieff autumn bodes for a hard winter.

It will be a hard winter for the EURO.

Job Report, Mergers, Bail-out/rescue, and the debate.

2008-10-03T07:48:00.000-07:00

The job losses are a trend that are non-inclusive of the recent turmoil in the markets. Savy business leaders were trimming staff before the most recent market turmoil and discussion of bailouts. These cutbacks are an agnostic recognition of the facts and are not tied to the 'sentiment' of a bailout or rescue plan.

I have heard allot about the 'confidence' or the 'sentiment' that the bailout would provide the markets. Emotive outlooks on economics do not change the facts, as an example the increase of deposit insurance is a fact not a sentiment. Insurance ceiling changes can encourage the repatriation of dollars to liquidfy banks. The comments that somehow the bailout will initiate another 'bubble' of confidence is simply not warranted; it will not do that. It is my bet that the market has more losses in store and that inter-bank lending will remain difficult.

The purpose of the bailout is to provide a means to prevent scenarios where say 'breaking the buck' does not spill into segments of the economy that should be behind a firewall. Wachovia yesterday demonstated what the bailout is for. Wachovia limiting withdrawals to educational isntitutions was a clear signal why intervention is needed.

For those who have laid-off employees, or let them go; when you run into those people later often the thought is: "What could I have done as a manager to have done better to have avoided doing that." I'm of course excluding the group that were fired. But really the job loss report reflects the agnostic facts that this economy has been in bad shape, is in bad shape, and will remain in bad shape for some time to come.

Politically, I guess starting with 250billion without all the pork barrel add-ons would have been fine with me, and then a progress report for subsequent issuance of monies as it was realized that the deflation was off-setting the accrued debt, that cost averaging would allow some of the assets to be profitable, and that this is indeed the right thing to do.

I think that in hindsight that we still don't appreciate the size of the challenge before this nation and the global economy, that roughly 1/3 of the bailout will be performed poorly, 1/3 at eventual wash, and a 1/3 at profit. I also feel that as difficult as it is to politically get a deal to move forward with this legislation that we need to do so. I think our progress can be quicker than the Euro here say Germany must agree to bail out the French. Our acting quickly can help to avert still larger notional losses.

Is main street and wall street connected?

Ask the unniversities that requested their monies.

Will jobs erode further? Bet on it.

Is the dollar the real refuge in these turbulent times? Yes. And I don't make that statement from a nationalist or smug attitude, it is just a fact that really no country wants to be taxed to bail out another. We are taught as individuals that finance is a zero sum game, when gloabl economics is not necessarily so. A political paradox difficult to sell and will cripple the Euro.

On the debate, well Palin did prove she was not a cartoon character, though the eye-winking was strange in a slow motion loop. Biden unquestionably won the debate and really gave the best performance witnessed in recent debate history. And the press claiming it was a tie?? well that is about as accurate as describing the bailout as a sentiment buy signal. The facts just don't suuport a Palin did well or a economic recovery is a vote away.

Truth is this, we need the bail out/recovery plan. That the economic recovery will take much more time than most realize. And though Palin thankfully didn't collapse on an INTERNATIONAL stage, she certainly didn't win the debate.

I also add this as a fundamental truth, raising the FDIC limit is the most effective immediate remedy to the liquidity crisis.

My opine... that the bailout is laden with pork and even the energy bill should be stripped out (even though I'm supportive of the legislation). And the energy bill is a measure that should be voted seperately.

These are just the facts and the way I see it.

Look at a stronger dollar, chaos in the Euro, fall in gold and oil, and an Obama win in November.

Thems the facts, agnostically presented.