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Thursday, July 2, 2009

Job report, bailout, and stimulus

In October of 2008 I stated that I didn't think that the spending would create jobs in the real economy.

When the shovel ready projects seemed to be road construction dollars and grants to the states to offset real estate shortfalls the question has become, where are the jobs? And nobody takes for granted their job is secure.

I really think that it was unrealistic to expect jobs to accrue from stimulus spending unless that spending is targeted outside of existing channels of the economy.

Specifically I believe that you can stimulate an economy by say creating more ship building jobs of a type that have not been built as an example a corvette that is not currently being built by an existing company in an existing shipyard, the spending creates new jobs and interjects competition into the industry in smaller yards or new locations. These would be new jobs.


Investment in green energy creation where actual mega watts are produced, ergo.. the availability of electricty would lower costs in markets where you could target say an area.. Detroit are and bring on allot of wind and lower the costs in that market.. where lower energy costs could be parlayed into a manufacturing advantage and create new jobs.

But the real issue is this Where's my bubble dude?

In short I'm not surprised that the stimulus did not do anything more than prevent systemic default and a break the buck run on money markets. That said I still supported it. I was critical of France of Germany for not doing more in their stimulus and the results?

OECD Cuts 2009 German GDP Forecast, Warns On Jobless Rise

The point is this, that exporting labor to low cost economies is a pump and dump policy in economics at the macro level, candidly unless there is not an increase in cosumer purchasing in China or other labor intensive nations, then there will be no recovery for quite some time.

The Bubble is not returning and the retreat on interest rates this last week has not convinced me that inflation is a certainty and that another leg down in the larger economy is not possible (if not probable.)

But uless there is "new job creation" attempting to stimulate the old economy will not prove fruitful unless the goal is to inject enough liquidity for settlement in a deflationar cycle.

As a new job creation effort I think to a satement by an individual who held up his cellphone and stated: When I first bought my wife one of these it cost a thousand dollars, was the size of brick, had limited coverage, and the pundits said the public didn't want them. He then suggested that solar energy needed the same innovation.. I agree *see woolsey previous blog

As a new job creation I think of a company doing market research and determining that nobody wants a personal computer. Honeywell releases the H316 "Kitchen Computer", the first home computer, priced at US$10,600 in the Neiman Marcus catalog. Xerox announces that it will create a computer laboratory to research digital technology. (The resulting laboratory, PARC, will develop many personal computer technologies, but fail to bring them to market.) and of course... BILL GATES makes a fortune... Bill Gates's dream: A computer in every home

I happen to agree with a pretty intelligent guy who unequivocally states: Unless we can get solar on every home, make the technology ubiquitous, the markets we have known in the past are unlikely to occur again.

Dirty fact.. the stimulus money went to states to meet the tax shortfalls from falling real estate taxes and the capital gains from an asset bubble on Wallstreet, both these bubbles.. created the illusion of wealth and via poor regulation created the scenario we have today.

There is few real options to create "new jobs."

I suggest setting aside some money for a reward/prize in an innovation contest connected with solar.. or if that fails.. start some small ship building cuz we are chock full of real estate currently...

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