This is the truth, nothing but the truth, and the whole truth, with a waterboard as my witness!
Thursday, July 2, 2009
When the shovel ready projects seemed to be road construction dollars and grants to the states to offset real estate shortfalls the question has become, where are the jobs? And nobody takes for granted their job is secure.
I really think that it was unrealistic to expect jobs to accrue from stimulus spending unless that spending is targeted outside of existing channels of the economy.
Specifically I believe that you can stimulate an economy by say creating more ship building jobs of a type that have not been built as an example a corvette that is not currently being built by an existing company in an existing shipyard, the spending creates new jobs and interjects competition into the industry in smaller yards or new locations. These would be new jobs.
Investment in green energy creation where actual mega watts are produced, ergo.. the availability of electricty would lower costs in markets where you could target say an area.. Detroit are and bring on allot of wind and lower the costs in that market.. where lower energy costs could be parlayed into a manufacturing advantage and create new jobs.
But the real issue is this Where's my bubble dude?
In short I'm not surprised that the stimulus did not do anything more than prevent systemic default and a break the buck run on money markets. That said I still supported it. I was critical of France of Germany for not doing more in their stimulus and the results?
OECD Cuts 2009 German GDP Forecast, Warns On Jobless Rise
The point is this, that exporting labor to low cost economies is a pump and dump policy in economics at the macro level, candidly unless there is not an increase in cosumer purchasing in China or other labor intensive nations, then there will be no recovery for quite some time.
The Bubble is not returning and the retreat on interest rates this last week has not convinced me that inflation is a certainty and that another leg down in the larger economy is not possible (if not probable.)
But uless there is "new job creation" attempting to stimulate the old economy will not prove fruitful unless the goal is to inject enough liquidity for settlement in a deflationar cycle.
As a new job creation effort I think to a satement by an individual who held up his cellphone and stated: When I first bought my wife one of these it cost a thousand dollars, was the size of brick, had limited coverage, and the pundits said the public didn't want them. He then suggested that solar energy needed the same innovation.. I agree *see woolsey previous blog
As a new job creation I think of a company doing market research and determining that nobody wants a personal computer. Honeywell releases the H316 "Kitchen Computer", the first home computer, priced at US$10,600 in the Neiman Marcus catalog. Xerox announces that it will create a computer laboratory to research digital technology. (The resulting laboratory, PARC, will develop many personal computer technologies, but fail to bring them to market.) and of course... BILL GATES makes a fortune... Bill Gates's dream: A computer in every home
I happen to agree with a pretty intelligent guy who unequivocally states: Unless we can get solar on every home, make the technology ubiquitous, the markets we have known in the past are unlikely to occur again.
Dirty fact.. the stimulus money went to states to meet the tax shortfalls from falling real estate taxes and the capital gains from an asset bubble on Wallstreet, both these bubbles.. created the illusion of wealth and via poor regulation created the scenario we have today.
There is few real options to create "new jobs."
I suggest setting aside some money for a reward/prize in an innovation contest connected with solar.. or if that fails.. start some small ship building cuz we are chock full of real estate currently...
Friday, June 19, 2009
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Russell was a prominent historian on the origins of the English Civil War. His major works include Crisis of Parliaments: English history 1509-1660 (1971), Origins of the English Civil War (edited, 1973), Parliaments and English politics, 1621-1629 (1979), Unrevolutionary England, 1603-1642 (1990), and Fall of the British monarchies, 1637-1642 (1991). His work on early Stuart Parliaments was profoundly influenced by the work of Alan Everitt, who had argued that the English gentry were preoccupied with defending their positions in the localities rather than responding to the demands of the Crown. This no longer seems entirely plausible in the light of the work done by Richard Cust, Peter Lake and Christopher Thompson. Russell argued that the English civil war was much less a result of long term constitutional conflicts than had previously been thought, and that its origins are to be sought rather in the years immediately preceding the outbreak of war in 1642 and in the context of the problems of the multiple kingdoms of the British Isles, a hypothesis for which he was indebted to the pioneering study of H.G.Koenigsberger. This area is still being explored by historians like John Adamson and David Scott even if their detailed conclusions vary from those reached by Russell.
The point is this, most of the people during the English Civil war were ILLITERATE! They did not have a notion of the Parliament rules or structures, giving ordinary Americans a game show question on the US government or geometry demonstrates the awareness if you will the difference between the educated political animal ascribing events and that of the members of the crowd.
It would be conveneint to say that the slogan "remember the alamo" or that George Wahington tossed a dollar over the potomac were pivotal moments in US history, they were not!
Not only has Iran done a poor job of responding to the crisis by blaming the US for it.. a hallmark of the belief that Al Gore invented the internet, or the myoptic view that only governments get stuff done.. but the US press has been poor in explaining what is happening in Iran.
That is why good sources and sound reasoning are valuable.
Now I think Fruede ascribes much more intelligensia to the crowd (mod) than is warranted.. I think there is a sense of change in the air.. a unexplainable "Zeitgeist" that westerners don't get.
I mean looking back to 2003 and the US push to war, I see people at USNI arguing over the cause/reasoning of the war and that was only five years ago..
There is no reasoning in the crowd of parliamentary issues.. it is a "Zeitgeist" of change where the institutions of the Iranian government either stand up to the people expectations of respnsiveness or they do not.
I see no winner unless there is a secondary election, where the votes are all really counted, where the "Zeitgeist" is that there was a fair election, else the institutions of governmet take a credibility hit.. that simple.
There is a "Zeitgeist" that the US cannot influence, that the Iranian institutions cannot influence, that only a fair election can settle.
I guess what gets me is that Persians are not Arabs.. and there has been many statements that Arabs can't do democracy... are incapable of it.
Seems to me Persians have a deeply rooted sense of democracy, and the "Zeitgeist" is that that the democracy has been ignored.
Laughably there has been more demonstrations in Iran that in the US between Gore AND Bush..
So really the US media has had this wrong..
Nobody in Iran tuning into CNN or FOX to get the message to dress in black, wear green, or march in silence...
The "Zeitgeist" just demanded it.
Finally at 7:50 6/18 the US press states the patently obvious:
Neither countries press much to brag about, no wonder fish wrapper sales are down
The assertion that hundreds of thousands of people inside Iran are acting as a consequence of US "meddling" or influence seems to dismiss facts in a manner where it underscores the complete lack of accountability by that government to the people, as if the government could make an assertionn completely unconnected with the facts, and that was a satisfactory response.
Not only is the assertion laughable in the US and western society, ridiculed in the press, and certainly a feat that is not tactically possible by the US or even Iran for that fact.. it is also laughable in Iran itself.
The allegtion itself is the best indicator to date that the government is no longer responsive. I think that the demonstrations will prevail and a real change is at hand, if not immediately then soon, as responses such as blaming the US for a lack of responsiveness and reform internally is the last desperate act of denial of change at hand.
How unconnected is the Iranian leadership? When hundreds of thousand Iranians protest, they blame the outsider... they are incapable of an honest dialouge internally to address the issues of change. That inability to change is the definition of their numbered days.
Here is my attempt to meddle in Iran, hey.. please all protesters march in Iran with a loaf of bread on your head... lets see if these people march en masse per my request or if they march on their own?
The Iranian government is unconnected to reality.
The ignoring of facts does not of course change them.
Here are the facts, the US is incapable of doing what the Iranian government states, and the reasons of the protests are not being acknowledged, but instead ignored.
So get the popcorn, ignoring people is the best way to motivate them, they will drive the point home if you fail to hear it.
The protests will become increasingly larger.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
In this full video of a denial of the crime by the looter and thug Ahmedinejad he asserts to have stolen at least 63.4 per cent of the vote! But notice the truth semantics, notice the head movement left-to-right repeatedly, the neck muscles tense, and the structure of the statements.
He stole the election fair and legal.... so of course he must shut down the internet..
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Putting aside the Hermit Kingdom's oddities, we are now faced with an aging dictator who has to at the end of life admidt invalidated life ideals or act in a manner unexplainable by many.
I'm not sure if this is a calculation on the Hermit's part that China will not enforce any measures, or a design of the Hermit to increase aid when Taiwan and Japan reinitiate shelved tehcnology to create their own arsenals
The dead enders act this way..
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
I guess the meds were needed when he tried to perform a citizen arrest of the federal reserve. And I guess I wondered about the narcissism expressed with a failed life?
A person that is only concerned with their wants and needs and is a me me me person. They will do whatever is necessary, lie, cheat, steal, kill, to achieve their goals for their own personal elevation and satisfaction. In other words, they do whatever is necessary to get what they want and will walk over or destroy anyone to achieve this purpose. They are without conscience.
I wonder if the Narcissistic personality disorder of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il will evoke a similar act? Failed ideas or political theory, old age, and narcissim.
I held off on Kim Jong-il and the topic awaiting progress in a rational approach to this situation. To see that Russia and China got serious about the circumstance underlies their ability to see the world rationally.
But what of the narcissistic personality disorder? Ignore it? When it gets politcal it is like the Jim Jones' Jonestown operation. I'll make a prediction, not on an election but another political event.. Kim Jong-il drags North Korea into the deep end of the Koolaid and the fallout will be on the entire region.
That religous mind set, political intolerance, really.. truly the narcissistic personality disorder will result in millions of North Koreans dying from a nuclear response.
And look at the facts.. you have to take these people at their word, and we don't because we confuse our empathy and humanity with their ability to discern and make judgements and decisions when that capability is absent.
At an old age these types are dangerous and the narcissistic personality disorder fatal.
While the Sr. members of the security council could make a rare concensus on security, I nonetheless feel that they under estimate the circumstances. And that is the real fatal mistake.
Yep.. meds were needed when he tried to perform a citizen arrest of the federal reserve. What does it take to get the attention these people crave?
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
An Estimated US$4.8 Trillion Could be Added to Global Economy if World Became More Peaceful
New Zealand World's Most Peaceful Country, United States Climbs Six Spots to 83rd Place
Bosnia & Herzegovina Most Improved; Moves Up 23 Places
Madagascar Sees Biggest Fall; Drops 30 Spots
I recall Jeff Stein poo pooing the DNI Global Trends reports that performed analysis on this topic, then he poo poo's a lack of a strategy or focus of US intel. I think that an emphasis on economics and the social impacts of economics will dominate the future.
I have wondered what metric could be wrapped around the issue of the economy and violence and have come to the conclusion that the nominal cost of energy is reflected through the social prism. What I find curious is a lack of a sense of urgency to create a transformational electric grid infratsucture that would provide national security, provide a framework for growth, and promote peace. As I consider the political will of the handling of GM where loans were made to 'prevent' bankruptcy where that result was baked-into the numbers, I see the cost of inaction of creating a national electrical grid delayed much more expensive.
The lack of this grid will produce a compound interest in a misery index. If GM can launch VOLT would we be able to support it?
The obvious is always the most difficult. Never underestimate the human capacity to see the truth, and yet again the ability to ignore it.
GM is bankrupt; I'm shocked... National energy grid delayed...