This is the truth, nothing but the truth, and the whole truth, with a waterboard as my witness!

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

New Era yes or No? I say obviously yes

Is this the end of an Era, end of Adam Smith, end of Hayek? I initially would say yes and no, and then YES.

I don't see how somebody could watch the documentary, The commanding heights or read the book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed or witness the coordinated global rate cut and not sense a change.

You hear commentary that wants to ignore the increasingly larger importance of international trade, you hear howls to return to mercantalism, but yes the world has changed.

In addition, naked pricing from the internet, an ability to order a small home generator from China online, an ability to search through NextTag for the best price, to buy not down the street but instead down the list of a webpage.

I make an observation, while the intervention globally in markets has not brought an end to the markets contagion, it has nonetheless ushered in a new era.

One of the areas that Diamond felt in his book that would avert problems in the future was information and media, where globally reactions to crisis was possible and coordinated responses possible. In the "Great Depression" an ability to make a coordinated response by video conference was not possible.

I saw the market do something that I stated signaled a bottom, that was commodities and equities downm in proportion to market fundamnentals, if that trend continues over 12 to 24 months, then I would say yes that this is a new Era and not a bad one.

Did I go long the market? No.

No comments: