This is the truth, nothing but the truth, and the whole truth, with a waterboard as my witness!

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

G20 Predictions this ought to be boring

I thought to mention Information Dissemination and the report carried by Drudge Report to this link. Which goes on to state:

First posted on a Chinese blog viewed as credible by military analysts and then translated by the naval affairs blog Information Dissemination, a recent report provides a description of an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) that can strike carriers and other U.S. vessels at a range of 2000km.

The range of the modified Dong Feng 21 missile is significant in that it covers the areas that are likely hot zones for future confrontations between U.S. and Chinese surface forces.

The size of the missile enables it to carry a warhead big enough to inflict significant damage on a large vessel, providing the Chinese the capability of destroying a U.S. supercarrier in one strike.

Because the missile employs a complex guidance system, low radar signature and a maneuverability that makes its flight path unpredictable, the odds that it can evade tracking systems to reach its target are increased. It is estimated that the missile can travel at mach 10 and reach its maximum range of 2000km in less than 12 minutes.

I have to admit that I read daily and that these guys are producing some of the best work in their respective area. It drives home the reason why the "Dinosaur Media DeathWatch" is occuring. By the time the main stream media MSM gets the story, it is after Drudge made it yesterdays news.

I watched these guys earlier, and if I could see the future would state that these guys are the real McCoy and their "new media skills" excellent. This is not clumsy ass roo-haaa military stuff.. these guys are really putting together material at USNI and ID.

On the G20

I will be awaiting to see who makes the biggest headline. Unfortunately the summit has denegrated into a media debacle of indignation, where politicians will attempt to portray the greatest amount of indignation for these two following facts.

OECD predicts 10% jobless rate for 2010


Rapid Declines in Manufacturing Spread Global Anxiety

I credit for much of my raw material to draw my opinion.

The G20 has set a stage that is almost at odds with it's goals. If CEO's flying in private jets receiving baliouts are unpopular, well these guys at the summit have to advocate some messages to set them apart.

Let's see Sarkozy threatens to walk out, Merkel says no to a stimulus, so Don't Come Up Short, G-20.

But let me tell you what will happen, the event will be looked back upon as the moment when failed nation states of the future could have been averted, it will be looked upon as when politicians knowing better made the decisions to avoid unpopular topics and decisions, and made themselves in the long-run not isolated from the challenge but further embroilled into it.

Notice and make a list and take note of those who genuinelly advocate cooperation and those that do not. I'm not discussing a difference of opines on how to act, but instead a willingness to cooperatively act!

I posted the Global Trends links, they explain the consequences of failed nation states. The unwillingness to avert these failed nation states will eclipse the costs of acting now in a cooperative fashion where coordinated rate cuts and stimulus spending are "supply-side" as these nations unravel derivative positions that offset stated monetary positions. An agreement to agree.. would avert marginal economies in the Euro failing, marginal economies becoming failed economies, marginal economies becoming failed nation states.

No.. be sure that after this is over and the contagion spreads that the countries mentioned, Germany, China, the United States, France, the G8 will be ok relatively speaking. The dollar will not be replaced with a global currency, in fact it will strengthen as a consequence of innaction and further global downturn. But what will be missed is the opportunity to stabilize economies that are marginal.

So lets tune into the media event, watch those who try and steal the show, remember that 10% or more of the viewing audience is unempolyed, and that the attempts to distance themselves from the debacle by G20 ministers will be unsuccesful.

My bet.. they lack the courage to do what they know is the right things to do. In short they will act as politicians and not economists.

My bet.. it'll be a debacle and a missed opportunity and make a bad situation worse.

1 comment:

freude bud said...

Thanks for the shout out.

What's your analysis now that the meeting has passed?